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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The first image is the CANSIPS for DJF. The second is for Dec only, and is the "best" of the three for our area. The big theme is a persistent eastern ridge which is exactly what we are seeing now. This is a VERY stable pattern. @Holston_River_Rambler's favorite wx feature is present over the Aleutians. But, and there is a very big but....the CFS has been flirting with January for several weeks. This is WHY I am not sold on January being warm. I hold to 4-6 weeks for how long a pattern can hold during winter at this latitude. If we get to the end of November and things are still warm.....that means the next pattern change runs Dec - midJan. IF, IF that pattern is cooler(and it should be), then we get a much different result than the CANSIPS. First CFS image is DJF. Second is January. Now, the CFS flip flops quite a bit as an understatement of its lack of commitment to any given pattern. BUT, if that pattern verifies for January, that is a barn stormer pattern for the Upper South. PNA (displaced slightly west) ridge which would send wicked cold south. That CFS pattern is less likely due to the PDO situation, but it has happened and cannot be discounted. Looks like blocking in the AO region would trump the PDO, and that is a reasonable scenario. I don't think January is a slam dunk. There are cold clusters of weak La Ninas for our region. This is a good example of why. The CFS and CANSIPS really couldn't be more different at our latitude.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Right now, I am just hoping we can cool down Dec-Feb before the heat returns. Running in +15-20 heat is not fun. Mornings have been nice. Afternoons have been terrible. But we will take today with its cool air before the torch returns next week. Next week will feel more like mid to late September....certainly not November. I still do expect this pattern to flip to winter later this month or early December...but there is certainly no consistent evidence of that on modeling...right now, just lots of much AN temps as the base pattern. Very summer like in fact.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I am seeing some LR signs of changes maybe in the Atlantic. If those changes occur, we could see substantial changes to winters after(and leading up to) 2030. And yes, the PDO is gonna park that trough in the Mountain West as a base winter pattern. There will be fluctuations I think, but this looks like a very warm winter coming up where Fall temps might be the norm and not actual winter temps.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Not only is there no sign of colder air during the next couple of weeks, I don’t see much even on the 6-7 week modeling. Caveat....LR modeling can easily miss cold air. I was thinking that I might go AN all winter. January still gives me trepidation. It wouldn’t shock me to see it cold. The longer this warm period goes...the more the anticipated December cool down potential gets pushed into January. But a least through next week...summer still persists - this isn’t fall weather, this is summer. Though today is a nice respite with drizzle.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Warm weather, with some minor cooler interludes, is still on wash, rinse, repeat. Cooler nights have kept our overall average from torching. However, this is one of the warmest falls I can remember. It is definitely one of the driest Octobers as we have only had 0.36" of rain. This is a textbook La Nina fall.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Really, no consistent cold pattern is showing up yet. This is definitely starting to look like extended+++ summer. I would think we see a pretty radical flip to cold with this with mid January through February being much AN. If we manage to carry this warm pattern through December, all bets are off.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 0z had it again. The scenario is basically the "Sandy scenario" where a tropical system gets caught-up in a strong cold front. For those new to our forum this year, DB and I are just kicking this around. Really, we need rain. However, sometimes La Nina fall seasons can rapidly flip quite cold after endless summers. The 0z GEFS ensembles is supporting the ridge moving back West for an undetermined amount of time. I would guess it sticks out there from roughly Nov 7 to right before Christmas.
  8. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS has snow at 384 for some eastern areas. Lock it in.
  9. Carvers Gap
    After Helene, it has gone bone dry. Now, that dry weather is merciful to those drying to clean up and rebuild. It would have been next to impossible(if the rains continued) to fix anything with the amount of mud. There are also people living in tents and modified shelter right now. So, it is probably a blessing to them. But yeah for all the reasons mentioned above, there are potential problems ahead if we don't get some rain.
  10. Carvers Gap
    I just want ya'll to know that Neyland Stadium was covered in thick fog yesterday morning. When the smoke cleared...the men in orange stood triumphant. The GFS missed on that one.
  11. Carvers Gap
    It has been a wild weather month with Helene, the Aurora, the comet, and now some early season snow.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I read that during a brief search for earliest snowfalls in the Smokies. It seemed off as soon as I posted it! It is an interesting question of how early they have seen snow greater than or equal to 1".
  13. Carvers Gap
    I should add that records began during the late 1980s at that location. I feel almost certain snow has probably fallen earlier at 6000'. Still, that is an early start!
  14. Carvers Gap
    Mt Leconte had its first snow at almost the exact time last year! They had 4" of snow on Oct 16th. Last year was the second earliest reported there. So, I guess this makes today the second earliest reported there.
  15. Carvers Gap
    MRX listing snow chances for the Apps from 2:00PM today to 8:00AM tomorrow morning. Just tagging onto @fountainguy97's post.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I pretty much take the photo, and then max out the saturation. That first image....I was looking up and saw the sky get really light, and realized it was the greener hue of the northern lights.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The aurora is rocking’ in TRI.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I got up to Roan Mountain yesterday. It is mind boggling the amount of water that came down that mountain. I think the only thing that saved lives there was they had been through similar flooding recently, and the homes at risk then are not there now. The water volume (to me) looked worse this time around. The roads that windspeed shared above...that is what it looks like in the narrow valleys of that area. I looked down to check directions once, and looked up to see my lane completely missing.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Water conservation orders for NE TN were posted last night.... Our thoughts and prayers remain with our fellow Tennesseans dealing with the severity of damage caused by the storm,” said TDEC Commissioner David Salyers. “In this critical time of limited resources clean water is essential for recovery and we call upon all citizens in these affected areas to conserve as much water as is possible.” The counties where mandatory water conservation orders are in place for the entirety of the county are Sullivan, Carter, Johnson, Greene, Unicoi, and Washington. Parts of the following counties are under the mandatory water conservation order: Cocke (Newport Utilities), Sevier (Webb Utility District), and Jefferson (Dandridge). The call is for citizens to conserve any water that is for non-essential use. Examples of non-essential use of water are clothes washing, running dishwashers, landscaping irrigation, or washing cars.
  20. Carvers Gap
    In terms of a colder pattern, it looks like a two step forward, one step back....step down pattern for October. Meaning, it looks progressively colder with each week.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Great photos, fountain. Looks like a pretty big cool down is beginning to show up on modeling - sooner than later. I think Helene might well have broken the summer pattern.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Man, the South Fork in Kingsport has been sort of off-and-on muddy since this event started, but was running reasonably (and oddly) clear yesterday. Even the water at Warriors' Path was normal. Whew. Not today - at least in Kingsport (haven't been to Warriors'). The water is maybe as muddy as I have seen it. It looks like the North Fork on a bad day - coffee creamer brown. I am guessing the clear water was TVA just clearing water in advance of the floodwaters. I am guessing that today, the waters from the Watauga have made it into the Holston system. Sometimes it takes a few days for muddy water to traverse through Wilbur, Watauga, Boone, and then Patric Henry lakes.
  23. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, want to take a guess at what occurred in September of 1989(the record we just broke)? Hurricane Hugo. Pretty good post you had a few pages ago. Money.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The number of missing has increased drastically today in both NC and E TN. My heart goes out to their families. I can’t even begin to understand or imagine, Aid is streaming into the area right now. Thank you to the folks who are working this. We saw a convoy of medical personnel this evening. They were headed east on 26.
  25. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Ramblera blend of Hugo and Opal was indeed the accurate comparison I think. The RGEM was incredibly accurate.
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