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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Saddle up! Here we go!!! The Weeklies ext(Euro) have the Christmas warm-up, but then they move back to seasonal which is plenty good during early January. I lean warm for winter overall with a cold start. That said, the weaker this ENSO gets....the more we are dealing with an SST forecasting bust which is in progress. If this goes Nada...probably still warm. But....... a weak La Nina has to be accounted for in terms of cold intrusions. It also brings a new set of analogs into play if one uses analogs. I guess what I am saying is that my original forecast is probably busted right now as we speak. If it was Monopoly, I would say, "Bank error in your favor. Go collect $200." This first cold shot could be a one-off. That has certainly been the case for the last few Nina winters....cold until Christmas and then torch. However, in middle and western areas of the forum, winter returned during a couple of winters to historic levels. What I like looking at LR forecasting: -Sometimes we can't get it to snow at all when the cold comes around. In LR modeling, snow is accompanying the cold at varying latitudes east of the MS. -The late landfalling hurricanes do have some correlation to wild winters here. -We haven't had any early season snowfalls...seems to be the kiss of death for bad winters IMBY. -There is cold in North America.\ -I tend to think the EPO is going to be the driver through the first half of winter w/ warm (maybe very warm) interludes. I did NOT think that several weeks ago. However, I think winter is showing a bit of its hand. -If I was going to re-write my winter forecast, it would be similar. HOWEVER, I think winter returns during January. -I have been super uneasy(and have stated that) about this winter. We may struggle to get to La Nina status. Why is that important here? The SER will have trouble holding all winter IMHO. A moderate or strong La Nina? Get out the Bermuda shorts and don't put away the lawn mower. A weak La Nina? Wicked cold to the Apps and beyond w/ maybe even some Piedmont ice/snow. -Bottom line....climatology for weak La Ninas in this area is IMHO the best, single predictor of cold winters here. I will take that ENSO state over all others. And that gives me great, great pause. I still lean warm for winter, but Mother Nature could yank that carpet out at any time. What I don't like: PDO MJO tendencies towards warm phases(but this winter could be one of those that bucks the trend....if my suspicion about the EPO as the driver is correct....the EPO trumps the entire pattern) The cold is just a bit early. I like cold to show up just before or after Christmas. Analog in play: 95-96....Cold came in waves, and snow moved along that boundary at times during the winter. Today's 8-14 analogs: John and Boone can fish the info out of these. I think there are some decent ones in there... 19891217 19561202 19511211 19551214 19761203 20081205 19631213 19611210 19641121 20001207 One last note: The ingredients are there for an early season snowstorm, and maybe more than one. No guarantees, but that is wild given how warm it has been.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, man! I had it in the queue for you or John or holston. AMZ definitely brings the cold when he starts a thread. December is gonna be a cold thread. Take it to the bank now.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I just want summer to be over before met winter starts!!! LOL.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I was thinking that looked like the strat was getting hammered pretty good. Two lobes at 30mb and 50mb around this timeframe. I don't know if I would call it a split, but definitely looks dislodged. Reading in the MA....I would add to their discussion and say that active Pac jet may be the cause of it.
  5. Carvers Gap
    This is what I am looking at. It was there at 12z, but not this crazy. The 18z GEFS has it as well. The GFS has an uncanny ability of spotting early season cold. I am NOT saying this is going to happen, but it is worth noting even at this range. Just a few snippets from 18z.
  6. Carvers Gap
    That high gets to 1065 I think near the Yukon.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The thing I like, and it is in fantasy land...is that big 1055 high late in the run. When we see those in December, that is a good sign if it verifies. Big highs in Montana will often find their way here as long as they are on the east slopes.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Happy hour, baby!!!!
  9. Carvers Gap
    Flow is fast, but we can score with that setup on the 12z GFS and CMC. I am not talking about one particular event, just the general setup. That is a good setup for John and folks in NE TN, SE KY, and SW VA. I am halfway eyeballing a weak overrunning event as well, especially for middle and western areas. That look is a shallow trough with the area of confluence around the KY/TN border....and kind of offset eastward just a bit. That allows for the low left section of the trough to be attacked by return flow. Potential is there. 12z GFS is honking later in that run.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Go back and dig through our Nina Decembers and compare them to these ensembles at 360. This look often delivers pretty significant cold shots. HUGE grains o salt at this range, but a decent signal at range.
  11. Carvers Gap
    12z ensembles depict a fairly typical cold start to winter with sever cold over Montana bleeding southeastward into the Upper South w/ the Apps as the demarcation line. That looks has delivered some crazy cold into portions of our forum area during the past decade and a half. I suspect we see something similar again. The 12z GEFS, EPS, and GEPS all show another strong cold shot around d12-15. It is possible they are a bit ahead of things....it is also possible they are sensing a very strong cold shot. When cold is that strong on an ensemble at range....reality "could" be much colder.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS continues to advertise a vey sharp change in our weather regime. Winter is on its way, folks. That is not a promise of snow, but there are certainly chances on the GFS. LR ext(weeklies) models washed out the strength of the troughs heading east. Now that the pattern is in range, it is a bit more chippy than what we saw on the Weeklies. Some STRONG amplification showing up.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Weekend shift at WJHL is talking about upslope later next week.
  14. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS now has the low pivoting over NE TN. That is a really cold run. Winter is on all modeling this afternoon.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Looking at ensembles and LR ensembles....winter is on our doorstep.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I think it is going to depend on how far south that energy dives. Trends often pull that energy north over time(we have seen it happen dozens of times). That may well be our set-up for snow this winter...nickel and dime stuff.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Both the 12z CMC and Euro have a decent NW flow event on tap. GFS it typically too progressive. Looks like a really good chance for 5-10" of snow for folks above 3000'. NE TN could get into the action, especially if the low doesn't trend northward(which it could). The Euro and CMC are very good setups.
  18. Carvers Gap
    There is gonna be a thaw. Now whether that thaw is a "thaw" or spring....IDK. Just for kicks and giggles, and it isn't overly accurate at this range. That isn't a warm look.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I didn't know this until reading some of DT's stuff at wxrisk, but the operational Euro is out to 360(not just 240). And that is one cold looking run at 12z. Wow.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC "almost" pops an inland runner Miler A. The GFS is more of an Ohio Valley special which deepens and pushes NW flow into the area. Either way, chances are increasing that higher elevations across the Plateau and Apps are gonna see some snowfall during that timeframe. I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow showers in the valleys of E TN.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Ya'll, I am not seeing big changes in ensembles at all. Maybe I need to go back and look more carefully. Operational runs are going to swing wildly with a potential pattern change in the works. Also, it is worth noting that storms in the 7 day range tend to disappear and then reappear. 18z GFS is a pretty robust late, fall system. We take that in a heartbeat.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Evaporating snow chances in the Upper South are a way of life. Gotta be tough at this latitude. Welcome to the show! Let's see what becomes of it. We are kind of in that window where things get lost. But Boone probably is correct that our best chances are on northwest flow - if that. Looks like the cold front is out of sync with the GOM system. As long as it isn't 85 degrees in November anymore, I can live with that change. LOL. ...all of my wife's family is from around Canton.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Right. I think our best chance is probably a northwest flow event. Even that is not guaranteed. Given the record warmth that we have experienced during October and start of November, it is startling to see such a strong cold front bust up the heat ridge over the East.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Really, really nice upslope event on the 12z CMC.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS just about got it.
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