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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    As we begin to make the slow, steady climb towards spring, it is very important to understand that the MJO phases for "what is cold"....they change when we hit March. We want to stay out of 6-7-8. Very sharp cold shot showing-up right around the 25th. So two cold fronts, 17/18th and the 25th. I follow cold fronts during spring, because if there is going to be mischief...that is when it shows up.
  2. Carvers Gap
    We get the 12z GFS southeast jog, and then we get this.... There will be no weather posts next July from me. The weather sure looks nice in Pasadena. Not too bad today here either with the exception of the wind.
  3. Carvers Gap
    You are just gonna have to look out your back window and see it up the road if that verfies!
  4. Carvers Gap
    When we need it most...it is gonna head to Akron! LOL.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro has now found the 24-25th cold front. It also has the rain/snow line over TRI for Friday night into Saturday. Would not be surprised to see WWAs posted with that. The GFS has the same trend, but was mainly over SW VA. Operationals have definitely trended colder yet again. No idea if that holds. This is VERY similar to what happened in early January.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS has much more eastern trough yet again this run through 330. A ridge rolls through, but interesting. The GFS would likely pick up on this first.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The MJO appears to be "potentially" getting ready to take the tour of the cold phases. If it does, this is a monumental bust of the CPC MJO plots which were trying to go back into the warm phases without going into cold phases. This has occurred all winter - CPC plots trying to skip either the cold or warm phases. I am not sure if the CPC plots are just representative of modeling bias...IDK. I think that is why we are seeing operational modeling find cold fronts that were not present 3-4 days ago.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Additionally, the 6z GFS has light snow over TRI Saturday morning (less than an inch of snow). My guess is higher elevations such as the Plateau and Apps see some light accumulations, and MRX has a short discussion about that this morning in their disco.
  9. Carvers Gap
    This morning, the 6z GFS and 0z CMC are picking up a fairly strong cold front around the 24-25th. Looks like a ridge rolls through just prior to that. Let's see if that holds. Decent look.
  10. Carvers Gap
    LOL. You know it! You know, that does look like that could be the Bays reservoir. I drove over that section of I-26 about 3:45. I don't remember anything unusual. On the other hand, I was trying not to hit the potholes on the bridge or get hit. For those of you who don't know, I-26 from Kingsport to Johnson City is like the autobahn in German. Better be on your toes...rubbin is racing on that section.
  11. Carvers Gap
    For the KY/VA/ TN border....Saturday can't be ruled out if a last minute SE trend takes place.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I am liking the 25th as a window to watch.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I wonder if there was some low level moisture hitting the mountain at a right angle. Seems odd to see it on the upwind side of the river. I was off the forum this afternoon, and hate I missed it....literally was right over the house. Does that feature count as an elk?
  14. Carvers Gap
    You always find interesting stuff. I think I can see that view out my back window every day.
  15. Carvers Gap
    We definitely make our own weather. But there are a lot of micro climates as well. Holston's Sullivan abode is probably about 100 yards from my parents. (We have never met that I know of...small world though) I am a bit up the hill. On Friday's they test their stuff. Things shake. LOL. That looks like an industrial release. My original thought was aircraft chaff, but we really don't have a lot of that activity here. Plus, that looks like it is coming from a singular, stationary point. Make me think waste treatment which is about where that plume is. Ya'll, if I am missing for a few days, you know the black helicopters have shown up. @1234 probably lives about 6-7 miles as a crow flies. Honestly, there are several Kingsport posters - I won't name all of them. I met @kvskelton(by chance)once when he was surveying in my neighborhood!
  16. Carvers Gap
    I updated that post...you can read the rest of it. LOL. It may just be confluence. It does tend to happen there, but normally it is on the other side of the mountain. Options would be open pit, new gas furnace, hydro demotion, or their waste water treatment plant. But it is right on top of it if I am reading that map correctly. Again, they make stuff that keeps us all safe and gets dropped from planes during shock and awe.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Under that spot is one of our nation's national defense plants. We make a lot of "stuff" here in KPT - chemicals, paper, and things which cannot be named or people show up at your house. Sometimes it can get a little sideways. LOL
  18. Carvers Gap
    That is where that weird little confluence sets up though.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Bravo Alpha Epsilon? Was the hydro demolition going or maybe it was some sort of release? Were they burning in the pit?
  20. Carvers Gap
    It rarely fails us....thunder in the mountains. Just a wild rule that is probably more accurate than most weather models. Congratulations to everyone seeing snow. Pics or it didn't happen! LOL.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Somebody is gonna have to post some snow photos so those of us getting the liquid variety can live vicariously.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The Euro control weeklies lower the boom for the first week of March - SSW special right there.
  23. Carvers Gap
    @Daniel Boone The ensemble looks to me like week 3 is warm. Week 4 is quite cold(maybe colder). Honestly, week 3 for middle and E TN look pretty similar. The Plains during week 3 are warm...just a quick glance on my part.
  24. Carvers Gap
    And this current SSW should show up around early March. We have the mid Jan SSW which should be now, but maybe went to Asia. It is also possible that modeling is now correcting to the Jan SSW event. Tough to know. I am very cautiously optimistic that modeling is trending colder....sitting on a razors edge though. Super warm pattern if the NAO doesn’t show.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Modeling is also picking up on 1-2 pretty severe cold shots in March. Let's see where this goes tomorrow. For now, we have winter wx advisories posted. If we end up getting snow, someone needs to open up a thread for the winter wx advisory.
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