Carvers Gap

Welcome back, man!!! Thanks especially to @Mr Bob for getting this fixed. Now, let's reel in this storm.

More upslope equals better winters for you foothills folks. Been less of that lately. It will come back.

@PowellVolz, you up and running. Sound check!

The 6z Euro AIFS is bitterly cold late in its run. It has been really good at spotting cold air masses at range. Looks like it also has plenty of chance for winter embedded.

Yeah, I definitely watch those last minute trends. The ICON is often the lower accumulation model when compared to other modeling for IMBY. So, when it bumps up...I take notice. Someone asked me a couple of days ago for Kingsport. I said 3-4" as a conservative estimate. I think some of the usual places in TRI could go +5. Some modeling has been placing NE TN under a heaving band as it exits. As you know, that is not an uncommon feature. We usually pack on another 1-2" of snow as those bands turn and come out of the Northwest. We may not get it all from the slider, but I do think some areas will even things up with those bands that will form as it exits. With the ground already so cold, we are at an advantage that we usually don't have. Good post. NE TN is complicated as usual.

Heavy banding! My favorite post of the day.

Speaking of the 12z HRRR...

12z CMC

Here is a more zoomed in version of the gfs:

12 GFS, ICON, RGEM, ARW on board. Dr No is up next. My guess is similar but with lighter precip. 12z GFS vs 6z GFS:

It could happen. Hi res models are definitely showing that potential. I don't think that is written in stone at the moment though.

12z GFS holds.

12z NBM

ARW, RGEM, ICON...almost identical at 12z. Let's see if the pattern continues.

12 RGEM for comparison....

So, the ARW is at 43(out of 48 hours). NE TN folks add a tenth or two more to your run(edi...full run shown). Now, take this model and compare it to what we have seen so far, and what is still to run. So far(with the notable exception of the NAM), this looks very similar. Now, I have seen one storm go horribly, epically wrong in terms of modeling. Charlotte was once forecast to get 4 feet of snow. Short range modeling got all sorts of feedback going as it turned the corner. They got nothing. I made the mistake of sharing that forecast with a friend of mine who works for ESPN. He wasn't happy when that didn't verify. I was scared to death(still am!) I was going to end up on his show for sending him that!!! LOL!!!

It is kind of pick your poison at this juncture. Ice or snow. Could all of that change? Sure. I would think by 18z, we have a much better picture. I hope so, because that is only 12 hours before the event starts in E TN(southern Plateau).

The 12z ARW is rock solid compared to its 0z run...remarkably similar.

NE TN peeps, the storm isn't even too our area on this model. Just to illustrate the 12z ARW run that is underway.

The 12z ARW is having none(and I mean none) of what the NAM is having. Ice doesn't even reach the southern TN state line on that model so far....and it is about halfway across the state so far.

One additional thought. It also could be the northern jog that has occurred all winter at the last minute. The problem? Modeling during the last 12 hours last weekend....came back south. Again, let's see if it has support. The alternative option (ice) would be rough. That could make rush hour a complete nightmare on the eastern side of the state.

I think we wait to see the rest of the 12z suite before passing a verdict. To me, it looks too wound up. It looks like feedback. That is a bias of that model. The bigger problem is that the 12z NAM is by far the most significant winter scenario we have seen in modeling this week. The suck factor would be off the charts. If it isn't feedback, I do think it is because the storm has been sampled better. It started jumping around as soon as that northern vortex came on board.

12z 3K NAM and 12z 12k NAM:

The 3k NAM managed 6" of sleet somehwere in the Upstate or SW NC. That just seems way too wound up. Seems like feedback.

The NAM is stubborn, and it that is what is concerning. RIght now it seems our choices are either snow or ice or both. That run is a far more significant winter storm (in regards to impacts) than anything that has been modeled this week. If that is the trend, that is an icy trend and a concern. IMHO, that is a winter storm no matter how one slices it.