Carvers Gap

The Austrialian MJO looks great. Looks like maybe a seasonal Jan. Someone at CPC has to be smiling after that Jan map. Cause I bet they were sweating after that 12z suite yesterday!!!!

And precip is above normal with seasonal Jan temps. We take.

Euro Weeklies 30 day temps from Jan 3 to Feb2 are normal. Intrusions of cold and a SER in the mix of course! Nice run.

Compliments of the MA forum....I'm just gonna leave this right here for you all to interpret. This explains the last 24 hours pretty much.

Great run of the 12z GEFS and GEPS ensembles. Canadian was bitterly cold with -10 departures from normal at times. @Holston_River_Rambler, we need some GIFS. LOL.

12z GFS has single digits in NE TN in early January behind a very strong trough amplification. Starting to see some of those runs now. GEFS doesn't look too bad as well.

Interesting to see the 6z CFSv2 move back to a colder look after the first. Anyone know if there is another MJO source as the CPC is not updating for American modeling? Looks like a graphics glitch. I can always just look at it on modeling, but just too lazy to do so. The plot is much easier. Plus, you can see where each ensemble strand is.

No idea. @John1122 found the info. He had some great comments, so I will let him clarify. I would suspect that helps us early in Jan, and then flips to a hindrance.

John had a good post earlier about phase 7.

What is showing up on modeling is a gradient winter storm track. It is WAY out there so please take with a grain of salt. It is likely that gradient is not in the right place. If modeling is just now catching the strength of the NAO, could be more suppressed. Also could trend north if the model is overplaying the NAO. Looks awfully familiar to last year.

Been up late at a veterinary hospital and up early! Things this AM look much better than 12z yesterday in regards to the LR pattern. Ensembles are workable. A lot of this hinges on which area of AN heights is stronger. Need both to weaken or the NAO to be stronger. Most importantly, need the big area of AN heights in the PAC to weaken or move closer to the coast. Those two scenarios bring the cold eastward.

The 0z GFS, and I have low confidence in any model right now due to huge swings, is basically showing what occurred last winter. The cold presses and multiple waves run it. That is the best run of the season so far. And with a block in place, that is the potential that is there...suppressed storm track with cold coming eastward in waves.

The 0z GFS is how one would expect that type of pattern to be...cold with multiple chances for ice/snow.

Honestly, that is super close to an long duration over running event. Not quite there yesterday, but a strung out front with ample precip. Night and day to earlier runs.

0z GFS is a vast improvement through 300. Snow(minimal but was a ridge earlier)threat for KY and SW VA on the 30th.

The 18z GEFS is how you would draw up a great winter wx pattern. NO IDEA if it stays there. Prob will change several times more. High in the GOA and building into Canada. NAO is textbook. There is some connection between the Alaskan and NAO block.

I use Pivotal, WxBell, and TT to name a few. I usually watch the models run on Wx Bell, because it is easier to watch trends. The 18z GEFS is a great winter weather pattern after 300. Flipped back from 6z/12z to 0z. Not often you see large scale features bouncing around that much over NA on an ensemble.

Not through with the run yet, but looks like the cold is going to get kicked eastward on the ensemble.

Models have no idea how to handle those two areas of blocking at this range. If the -NAO is stronger, the Pacific is likely weaker. Flip that around and the NAO is weaker. The 18z GEFS definitely accentuated the NAO this run, and temps are much cooler. Actually, the 18z would work really well. One thing that we have to consider is that there is some likely feedback over the West. I

I don't sweat temps(LOL) after d10. Pretty much just look at the trends at 500. Out to about 294, the -NAO is the dominant feature with the are of AN heights in the Pac being weakened. Hints of AN heights in Alaska which is a big change.

Thanks, it was your previous post I remember that from.....knew I had read that somewhere. Any thoughts on the models bouncing around? I do believe this year we see a repeat of November. Fall was warm during the first half and then the cold pattern of November slammed the door shut on that. Almost seems like that is repeating.

GEFS is still running. Looks like both blocking areas are less strong. We will see where that leads. Pac is substantially less strong. Honestly, modeling is just going to be nuts for a few days. I thought it would settle down once the typhoon dissipated. Nope.

7 is tricky for January. I hear it is slightly different for La Nina. The CPC map is cold for 7 when the three month time frame is centered during December, but gets warmer for January. Again, Nina may well be slightly different. Major reshuffle in modeling. No idea where this ends-up. So, 12z flipped warm and 18z flipped crazy wild with a huge EPO ridge. Pattern shake-up likely under way...again, no idea where this heads but it could get wild. Have a good one. If you get a good tweet, feel free to share. Not much to talk about at present as we get ready to ride out a warm-spell after Christmas.

The 18z is the ying to the 12z's yang. If you watch the global wind pattern at 200-300mb, you can see each deepening of the western trough is progressively eastward. Why is that important if true? That means the pattern is progressing eastward. The 18z features a monster GOA positive height anomaly late in the run. No idea where this is headed, but models are all over the place. Likely culprits are a strat warm(no necessarily a split) and also bitterly cold air over the western Canada(likely a feedback problem). Been a wild day of model watching!!!!

When you see a ridge over the mid-latitudes(especially over eastern NA) hook-up with a -NAO....we have seen this for several years, and it nearly always precedes major changes in stratospheric anomalies. The consequence of that coupling is model mayhem and extreme cold dropping into either EurAsia or NA. That is all I have on that. Let's see if that trend continues.