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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    During the past couple of days, I have started noticing potential GFS long range warm bias(remember that back in Nov/Dec?) starting to show its presence again. This is how global operational models are comparing to the GFS right now over time. Red is the Euro. Black is the GFS. Mustard is the UKMET. Green is the CMC. American modeling is MUCH different than the Euo/EPS right now. Most MJO modeling now gets into phase 8 which is cold, and takes its time there. I know Cosgrove hinted yesterday at strat warming occurring. When you see a gigantic WAR(western Atlantic ridge for newcomers) connected to the SER during winter, that is likely doing some damage to the SPV. I think he is correct on this. Whether it reaches the official definition of SSW, who knows. What we are looking for is the PV to get jostled. It tightened up recently which is why NA likely warmed quickly after the previous disturbance. How quickly does it work down to the surface? Generally, IF it is going to affect the tropospheric polar vortex (TPV) that will occur about 2-3 weeks once the event begins. I am going to use the GEFS here. I doubt its surface is right, but it has done well w/ strat warming, and I don't have access to the EPS LR strat stuff. Notice the tightly wound vortex at 50mb(68k') is at the beginning of the run. 10mb which is usually the first place we notice warming at about 100k'. Then notice it get perturbed as air warms around it as the run progresses. I will say the Euro strat stuff(which I do have access to) looks quite similar to the d10 GEFS. In past years, we have seen cold patterns disrupted by SSWs. This time, it is disrupting a currently warmer pattern at the surface. So, I say bring it on. Here is the link to convert millibars to altitude. https://www.sensorsone.com/altitude-pressure-units-conversion/
  2. Carvers Gap
    So, it looks like we get a window of decent storminess(systems passing potentially below our latitude, but w/ marginal temps) during the 5th-9th. We get another warm-up, and then I am hypothesizing that we see a more productive cold shot around the 15th.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I think our forum does a good job of separating emotion from wx. Nina winters are winters of extremes. We all braced for that once winter started. I suspect that continues. The GEFS has a +EPO late in its run which I am sure must be part of the consternation. The 12z EPS looks more like what MJO progressions are showing. So, I am riding with it. There are places along the EC which haven't seen a flake yet. We all have pretty much had some winter already. Anyway, this is a snapshot just past 300 hours of the 12z EPS...
  4. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS is textbook cold MJO phases. It is quite chilly at 300+ and continues the look from overnight. IF the MJO is heading into cold phases quite slowly...modeling should begin to show some cold looks mid month. The EPS certainly does that.
  5. Carvers Gap
    During chess, great players count moves. I have played against players who can see moves at a ridiculous range - and no, I don't play chess well, but I can play. Sometimes in weather, folks "count moves." I do. In chess, the board is two dimensional and limited in space. With weather, to echo Boone, people talking like 15-30 day forecast are gospel are making educated guesses. I may "think" something is going to happen...but modeling is only good at very broad patterns at that range. They don't see embedded storms and often miss cold shots or warm-ups. And when people are "right", they often are simply playing a game of chance. Nina climatology has its biggest cluster of solutions which are warm IMBY for Jan and into Feb. I made my winter forecast during June by using that. There is a cold cluster which I didn't use, but certainly is showing up in LR modeling. I think our best chance for winter weather this seasons will be from Jan10 to the end of the month. Then, at some point...this is likely going to flip back west at 500 and we do it all again during February. And that is counting moves....BUT the weather is not bound by the dimensions of a chess board. It exists in chaos, and does not obey computer algorithms nor the opining of the human mind. Cosgrove should have an update tonight. I will be interested to see what he says.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 12z global ensembles look really decent between d10-15 w/ abundant AN heights at high latitudes. That is a big league cold signal.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Yep, Twitter group think is real. Whatever viewpoint one wants, it is on Twitter. LOL. The first 5 days will likely be super warm which makes a warm January highly likely. But as we found w/ December, warm starts don't tell the entire story. I do think this side of the Apps is far better situated for cold and even in western NC. And Boone, I know you know this. I am not really interested if the month is base warm. What I look for are winter storm windows. Cold helps, but we get some leeway during January which we don't have during other months. To me, I see 2-3 storm windows with increasing chances as each week passes. We are going to be fighting source regions, but the MJO rotations have generally looked not hostile. And the MJO is moving so slowly, if it gets into 8...it may take some time to get it out of there. I have seen winter end during January, and this is not how it usually looks when that occurs. Right now, it looks like the pattern is going to slowly reload like it did during November.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I could make that argument for sure. Jan is likely to be AN for temps as the warm spells will be very warm. Seems like Jan 96 wasn’t overly cold by averages. I just think winter is coming back beginning this week and with each passing storm. The progression looks quite similar to Nov and Dec.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS has finally caved to the GEFS - lock, stock, and barrel. A great look d10+.
  10. Carvers Gap
    HB was a man among boys. Yeah, the Vols have been my team since I was a kid. My first football game was against Southern Cal in Knoxville. There were NFL Hall of Famers in that game. I have been to basketball games in Stokely. I grew up listening to John ward. As a student, I lived some of the great years at UT, early to mid 90s. It is nice for my own kids to finally get a chance to see TN play meaningful games late in the season! While nothing is ever guaranteed, I think the pattern improves with each passing week after week 1 on January. Very much agree. I tend to think American modeling is able to adjust more quickly to pattern changes during winter. The GFS operational, as maligned as it has been(me included), spotted the Jan5th cold front first. I am leaning more towards cold/stormy, but still isn't a slam dunk.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 6z CFSv2 is firmly adamant that the NAO block returns for the second half of January. Coupled w/ the HB AN heights, it funnels cold into most of the continental US - icebox pattern.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The CFSv2 is decidedly colder today. I feel like I have seen this movie before....
  13. Carvers Gap
    Last post after a flurry of them, the shortened wavelengths deal has my interest. When wavelengths shorten up (instead of broad troughs and ridges), storm genesis can occur even during a warmer pattern.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The CMC keeps them separate. Thing is, with HP over the stop and southern stream energy w/ shortened wavelengths.....there is room for something to come north along the coast.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Let's see if the 12z CMC does something similar as it has a similar setup just at 84.....
  16. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the 12z GFS stalls that low or at least it crawls. That was close to a very, very big storm. That is only 5-6 days out.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Who knows if the 12z GFS is right(and it did identify the jan5 cold front before other modeling if memory serves me correctly), but it just about phased the northern and southern branch features at 126, and then buckled the jet at 132 w/ a slp along the SC coast.
  18. Carvers Gap
    So, I have been meaning to change my profile for a while. When I went to Roan Mtn this week, I decided to get a better photo. Most of the time I get too much glare from the sign up there(or it is socked in cloudy), and I don't get a clear shot for whatever reason. It fits my handle so I rolled with it. I didn't even make the connection to the game until after it was over. I thought about changing it back to the PowerT for a few days, but was like hey...why mess with a good thing(as in we won)!!!
  19. Carvers Gap
    Operational modeling this morning looks good. Ensembles look to be following the GEFS lead. Does it score a coup? It just might. GBO!
  20. Carvers Gap
    What a win. Whew. I am worn out!!!!
  21. Carvers Gap
    I hope South Carolina just enjoyed their bowl game.
  22. Carvers Gap
    IDK. With our QB, 2 best WRs, and best defensible player out...my bar is set extremely low. If it was weather, the northwest jog is real.
  23. Carvers Gap
    In general, the 12z global deterministic runs bring the first cold shot around January 5th, and then subsequent cold fronts after that w/ warm interludes. It would not surprise me to see snow showers behind the system on the 5th. I think this pattern gets progressively cold. By the third week in January, this pattern might be really cold. So, enjoy the next 6 days....
  24. Carvers Gap
    1989 is probably the winter that haunts me. I have said that before, and I say it again. We had not had multiple warm winters (consecutively) in my lifetime at that point. My childhood was the 1970s. I only knew cold and snowy winters. I had just lived through 84-85. The winters had warmed slightly since the mid80s, and that trend was noticeable. But...given how cold Jan85 was, it had no where to go but up. So, when '89 hit I thought we were back in action. I was. a student at UTK at the time, and it was cold. There was a huge snowstorm predicted that didn't materialize. I headed home for the break, and came back to spring. Winter never came back. The outdoor pools on campus began to open to students in the middle of winter. It was surreal. December 2018(I think I have that right) is another example of December cold which froze rivers, and winter just muddled along after. So, I am wary of dam-breaking, cold outbreaks during early winter - very wary. So, I thought it might be interesting to reconstruct(forensic climatology sort of...) of that winter. Can you imagine AmWx w/ this???? Can you imagine the calls to just shut it down until next winter? December: January: February: So, when I see a very cold shot in December, I wonder. I this the repeat? And I don't think so this year. There is much more cold in the West during December. It didn't really make it in force to many coastal cities of the east coast. The other thing I notice is the lack of blocking up top during January and February. Modeling has HL blocking for January. Whether it helps us or not is another discussion entirely. Additionally, December was PNA/EPO driven and not NAO driven. NAOs during winters tend to repeat off-and-on during winter. In fact, there was very little blocking over Greenland that winter at all. What I think (and am certainly not certain of) is that we are seeing a typical January thaw. My main concern is that Nina winters IMBY tend to leave during January and not come back. The caveat? This is a rare third year La Nina. I am not even sure a fourth year Nina has ever been recorded(I read that and cannot confirm). I suspect the 6z GFS is too quick, but if it is right...winter is back quite quickly. I am reading some strat warm stuff. Honestly, I don't like it as much as I used to as it seems to throw a wrench in good patterns. But given the pattern through mid-January, I don't think it is wrecking much if it occurs. Also, winter patterns tend to repeat. That pattern is extreme cold diving into the West and racing eastward. That has been ongoing since mid-November. Let's see if that repeats 2-3 more times this winter along w/ very warm interludes.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS has what amounts to a major winter storm(prob would be for E TN if correct), but the GFS has resumed producing outlier solutions. For now, I think it an outlier unless gets some support from another model.
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