Carvers Gap

12z GFS has two opportunities. One is around the 27th, and then the one you mentioned. And yes, the GFS has had a real knack for sniffing out storms at range. @Icy Hot, yep, enjoying the weather and watching A LOT of basketball.

Yesterday felt like a heat wave. There was still snow on the north facing side of my house, but the temps felt awesome. Hard to believe just three days ago that daytime wind chills were 12F.

Man, it has been a great weekend!!!!! No lead felt safe today, but they pulled it off. SEC Champs!!!! I was a youngster last time they did this!

Long way out there, but the 18z GFS and 12z EPS have another window near the end of the month - maybe around March 27th. I know a lot of us, me included, are not used to March's of recent memory being part of winter....but the bowling ball lows sliding through the SE only need a cold shot to really get cranking.

I think this is still relevant to the storm thread. Temps and wind chills tonight are going to be maybe the coldest of the season or close to it. From MRX Discussion: Will likely see some snow showers lingering into the evening hours over the TN mountains and also northeast TN and southwest VA. Still have winter headlines out for these areas, but all of them expire at 00z. This seems reasonable for northern areas but may be perhaps a couple of hours too long in the south. At this point in the event though, this is splitting hairs though as no further significant snow accumulations are expected in any of these areas. Otherwise, temperatures will be the big story for the remainder of the short term. Trended overnight lows towards a mix of the GFS and Canadian with a little NBM 25th percentile mixed in. Given the snow pack across the valley, and the expected light winds late tonight as high pressure builds into the region, it seems more than plausible that some single digit lows will be seen tonight. One factor that could wind up making this a mistake is that winds will remain elevated through the evening and perhaps first part of the overnight hours. But guidance indicates high pressure will build in from the southwest after midnight tonight which will force winds to become light in the valley and should allow temperatures to plummet. Related to overnight lows, wind chill values will be very low at higher elevations beginning this afteroon and lasting through the overnight hours. A few locations above 3,000 ft have already seen wind chills near zero this afternoon, but beginning around 22z we should see these locations begin to see wind chills dipping to between -5 and -15 degrees. Will go ahead with a wind chill advisory to account for this. Low level flow turns around out of the south tomorrow, resulting in highs climbing into the mid 40s to low 50s and alleviating any remaining hazardous road conditions and melting any snow left.

Found it on this page...

Yeah, I kind of thought its as cool to see the western TN snow streak. Some modeling just nailed that. Honestly, that amazes me that computer modeling can do that.

Some cool satellite photos. Snow banding/squalls are evident over NE TN, W NC, and SW VA.

Well, when we hit 63 on Monday...it is going to continue its journey along the water cycle after being in suspended animation today while on the ground. Springs snows rarely last long due to the sun's angle. Tonight, it should help lows get Into the low teens and/or single digits depending on location. Easily the most wintery day of the year IMBY...and it is March. Wind is howling, ice cycles are hanging from the house, snow squalls moving through, sun shining, and wind chills in the low teens.

This is easily our best storm of the season in west Kingsport. Probably between 4.5-5" of snow here at the house and a solid 5" of snow on the groomed surfaces of the golf course. Sledding is good today. I have almost enjoyed these snow bands as much as the storm itself. Going to be COLD tonight!!!

I was watching for downslope traits, and didn't see them. I was up late when it changed over, and that dry pocket came through. There was seemingly a small bit of rotation to it. Kind of cool and was kind of not! LOL. It almost looked like that slipped over the apps into NE TN and then headed for SW VA...and it keep moving which is why it didn't really seem like a downslope deal. Very dynamic storm to pull something like that off! Glad you got some snow over that way.

Grassy areas are crazy deep. The golf course might have 6" in the short rough. There is more in the neighborhood if you get away from trees.

I have 4" of snow on the back patio table and 5" in the garden. I wasn't over 3-3.5" in any of those places until that band roared through. It dropped a solid, additional 1-1.5" of snow here.

Yeah, I think my totals are pushing 3.5-4" now. I will go get a measurement in a sec. Nice way to close out this storm.

This is old school stuff. Get a nice coastal and then it snows for hours after as the moisture is just wrung out of the atmosphere.

Man, it is just puking snow under this band. With the wind blowing, visibility is down to about 1/8" of a mile or less.

Yeah, that band is stout. Just pouring snow. Probably will pick-up another 0.5" or more.

We managed to to get to 3 to 3.5". We would have gotten more had that little area of dry circulation not rotated through last night. It wasn't downslope I don't think. It was location to the track and that little mesoscale circulation of dry air which rotated through. Overall, I thought models did really well with the exception being last minute trends.

I have seen bigger snows, but this is easily the biggest snow of the year. A good thump! Now on to the first week of April - LOL...sort of. Going to bed ya'll. It's been good!

Nice band for sure. We are at about 1/8-1/4mi visibility. Winds are brisk under that band as well.

The thing is, I think the rapidly deepening phase of the slp is now occuring. I can see the bands getting much heavier around TRI.

What is crazy, the NAM 12k is massive as are almost all of the other 6z short range models and the RAP and HRRR. Makes me wonder if they got some bad data. I tend to agree w dwagner that it is moving to fast to drop that much snow.

Heavy snow here at the moment.

The HRRR isn't too far off the 3k FWIW....and it fits the mesoscale look posted by 1234.

Likely correct. The reason I looked is that I noticed the bands tightening up around TRI and intensifying. If I get 2-3", I will be happy. That will be the most we have had all season.