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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    1989 is probably the winter that haunts me. I have said that before, and I say it again. We had not had multiple warm winters (consecutively) in my lifetime at that point. My childhood was the 1970s. I only knew cold and snowy winters. I had just lived through 84-85. The winters had warmed slightly since the mid80s, and that trend was noticeable. But...given how cold Jan85 was, it had no where to go but up. So, when '89 hit I thought we were back in action. I was. a student at UTK at the time, and it was cold. There was a huge snowstorm predicted that didn't materialize. I headed home for the break, and came back to spring. Winter never came back. The outdoor pools on campus began to open to students in the middle of winter. It was surreal. December 2018(I think I have that right) is another example of December cold which froze rivers, and winter just muddled along after. So, I am wary of dam-breaking, cold outbreaks during early winter - very wary. So, I thought it might be interesting to reconstruct(forensic climatology sort of...) of that winter. Can you imagine AmWx w/ this???? Can you imagine the calls to just shut it down until next winter? December: January: February: So, when I see a very cold shot in December, I wonder. I this the repeat? And I don't think so this year. There is much more cold in the West during December. It didn't really make it in force to many coastal cities of the east coast. The other thing I notice is the lack of blocking up top during January and February. Modeling has HL blocking for January. Whether it helps us or not is another discussion entirely. Additionally, December was PNA/EPO driven and not NAO driven. NAOs during winters tend to repeat off-and-on during winter. In fact, there was very little blocking over Greenland that winter at all. What I think (and am certainly not certain of) is that we are seeing a typical January thaw. My main concern is that Nina winters IMBY tend to leave during January and not come back. The caveat? This is a rare third year La Nina. I am not even sure a fourth year Nina has ever been recorded(I read that and cannot confirm). I suspect the 6z GFS is too quick, but if it is right...winter is back quite quickly. I am reading some strat warm stuff. Honestly, I don't like it as much as I used to as it seems to throw a wrench in good patterns. But given the pattern through mid-January, I don't think it is wrecking much if it occurs. Also, winter patterns tend to repeat. That pattern is extreme cold diving into the West and racing eastward. That has been ongoing since mid-November. Let's see if that repeats 2-3 more times this winter along w/ very warm interludes.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS has what amounts to a major winter storm(prob would be for E TN if correct), but the GFS has resumed producing outlier solutions. For now, I think it an outlier unless gets some support from another model.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Overall, trends have been quite good today. If I didn't remember yesterday, I would be pretty bullish. The GFS has cold returning on Jan 5th which is within 7 days now. Honestly, the warmth today was a welcome respite. If the Euro control is anywhere close to being correct, we had better enjoy it while it lasts!
  4. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS has a storm signal for middle and west TN at 168, and has been pretty consistent in that look for several days(maybe a week). E TN could score w/ the redevelopment in the Piedmont of a slp.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Euro control during middle of January. That is a seven day running average for that image..........
  6. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies. First image is the 30day control run(Jan13-Feb13). Please refer to the Jan 2010 analog above. Next two are temp and precip. If the Weeklies are correct, they will work. The storm around the 7th-8th begins to erode the warmth. Looks like the real fireworks begin around the third week of January. My guess is the ensemble is a bit too slow w/ that progression. That is a really good look on the control - really good.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I did just replace our kitchen faucet, but it just finally broke down(not due to cold). I put it off long enough until finally the water on the kitchen floor made me pay attention to it. I was glad that was all it was as the outside faucet is hooked into that line, and I thought it broke. I was relieved to find that the faucet was all it was.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Took a little trip to the namesake today...The place was overrun w/ people from North Carolina - no offense to our forum members from there.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Weeklies looked really good. If I get time I will try to get a break down of them. When you see snow in the GOM. But I do bring this nugget(Euro control):
  10. Carvers Gap
    To clarify..I want standard run-of-the-mill cold and not bust-my-pipes cold.
  11. Carvers Gap
    We can live with the global deterministic(operational) runs today. Storm track is really good.
  12. Carvers Gap
    That is a very cold run of the 12z GFS.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Very good and I didn't expect any less from you! Yes, that is January 2010.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Since we are in some down time...let's play guess that analog. I have been digging around looking for HB blocks in the middle of January. So far, not many. The 0z EPS and 6z GEFS below are IMHO a southward displacement of that analog. That displaced look is yielding very different results in modeling than the analog, but the look was strikingly comparable. Now, assuming I didn't leave an unforeseen time stamp on that analog, which one is it(without going to the re-analysis page)?
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GFS has lots of activity into marginal temps. Coastals, sliders, and cutters. It looks like an active STJ during prime climatology. We may have to thread the needle a bit, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see someone in the forum area score some snow between Jan 5-15th. Let’s see if modeling continues those good trends...
  16. Carvers Gap
    Re: the above...The 13th-20th would be ideal in terms of both storm track and temps. THAT is how a HB block should work. One thing which is showing up on some model runs today(and has to be watched) is AN heights sneaking back into Alaska. The CFSv2 has done pretty well this winter at 500mb, and that is only one run(sign the waiver). It will bounce around some, but it is nice to see a run which reflects its slow moving MJO. Speaking of slow moving, IF the MJO gets into 8...it might not be in a hurry. I think the saving grace this winter will be the eventual return of the NAO later in January. And nah, this place never shuts down. LOL. I will get out and enjoy the weather before it gets cold again. Many people up here are having to fix pipes. We need the warmth to get things fixed. I talked to the check-out lady at Home Depot today. She said it was slammed on Monday w/ the majority of sales being plumbing. I had some relatives w/ a pipe break. A lot of people lost water on Saturday and w/ stores closed on Sunday...had to sit for 48 hours with no water. So yes, we are good w/ a warm-up for once!
  17. Carvers Gap
    Mega path-out-of-the-eastern ridge post. Both the 18z GEFS and CFSv2 showed either some noise in today's trends or are tending back. 50/50 as to what. I looked at the MJO to see why the LR had gone to crap today. See the loop....That is the pause or the kick-the-can which we saw today. The GEFS below: But the CFSv2 has this, and I have been waiting for its own model output to reflect the progression below: And here is the 18z 7day panels beginning on Jan8th: It is understandably quite cold under those BN height looks. I do think the pattern flips west at some point unless the Nina can take hold. Notice the NAO showing back up?
  18. Carvers Gap
    I still think we have a storm window between the 7th-10th just due to nothing more than a decent storm track in early January. I think we are looking at a minimum of 3 weeks before the cold returns, possible 6 weeks if this is a new pattern. Modeling will hopefully tell us more during the next 3-4 days. Today's trends were 10/10 in terms of bad trends! LOL.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Definitely can kicking today. The EPS has the pattern change now after 300+. The GFS/GEFS was much too quick w/ the return to cold. I do wonder if we see it return during January at all, but I suspect we will. The HB block is no friend in its current configuration (w the Pac). We are about to find out what happens w/ no block over Greenland in combination w/ a bad Pac. I have my doubts that the PNA shows up at all. We may be waiting for the NAO to show-up again. This could still flip around as this is still way out there. My guess is more can kicking and cold around Jan15th. ...sign the waiver
  20. Carvers Gap
    The CMC at 12z is probably our best path forward. After nice runs at 6z and 12z, the GFS wen puke city both in the operational and ensemble. The CFSv2 may need some credit as it has been fairly decent over the past few days in sniffing out more warmth than the other models did. That said, this is far, far from over as the first seasonal front(not really cold) is due just after the 5th and maybe e cold front by the 8th.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I will keep it short and sweet. 12z suite in three words so far in the LR....HB block, zonal
  22. Carvers Gap
    People of Wise, come forth and get your trophy!
  23. Carvers Gap
    I posted the above in order to show how hostile climatology is towards coastal storms - aka as why E TN has less snow during some(certainly not all) Nina winters. Dial up whatever pattern we want...and climo is pretty hostile to colder weather from the spine of the Apps to the East coast. It took a record cold snap to drive cold to the coast this time around. There are some notable exceptions. Some of the very worst winters in my lifetime were weak La Ninas - snow, ice, cold. Some of the dries/coldest are weak La Ninas. They are extreme winters. Conversely, Nino winters are 40s/50s for highs w/ rain all winter long - not a lot of variability. Nina winters are HIGHLY variable as we are seeing this winter. When one looks at modeling, we can see the clusters of cold Nina cold winters from time to time. We also see the ones where winter gets progressively warmer which is also textbook Nina, especially for E TN. It was an easy call to say cold was coming for December. I am wary of a mirage for January as cold runs against the more weighted cluster of winters which warm as winter progresses. OTH, there are some winters which warmed, and then flipped back cold. I seriously doubt outside of a good guess(and excluding skilled, elite wx forecasters), many have a good handle on what comes after Jan5th and include me in the bunch which don't know. I lean cold, but am much less certain than the December call.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I was taking just a few minutes to look at generalized temp patterns during La Nina winters. December is textbook Nina. The atmospheric river is about to take care of any precip deficits on the West coast.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Felt like a heat wave when the sun came out today and we made it to the upper 30s.
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