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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
HOT!!! I have been in coastal Oregon and the transition back to TN is HOT!!! I did get to experience a humid couple of days there as the atmospheric river paid a late season visit to the Pacific Northwest. I also got to experience a gale along the coast. So awesome. Looks like the heat here will moderate by the last 10 days of June - HOPE SO!- 216 replies
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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
We received some decent rain last night in the form of a severe storm. 2" size hail fell in Church Hill. We saw that incoming on the radar and were getting ready to move our cars to a parking garage downtown! Right as we got ready to load-up, the severe hail portion of the storm dissipated. Areas of Fall Branch received some smaller hail as it crossed Bays Mountain. Outside of high winds, hail is the worst. After dealing with that several years ago in the form of torn-up cars(broken windows and looking like they had been hit with a hammer), gutters with holes in them, broken furniture, and a new roof(after getting a new roof just 6mos earlier)....I truly hate hail storms. Thankful for the rain, though.- 216 replies
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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Last week...Portions of NE TN were added to the drought monitor(early stages). The area in SE TN was expanded. Today’s update will be interesting. We are in a cycle where NE TN is dry and getting drier. It has been my experience that those types of summers tend to struggled to get back to normal for precip. I put my garden in slightly early this year as a bit of a gamble. I think late summer has the potential to be really tough on gardens and farms.- 216 replies
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I think I have shared this before....but when we were at Sanibel Island years ago, we shot some really cool shots of the sunset there. We noticed a lot of people(more than usual...but not by much) viewing it as well. We took some really good shots. Got home, and realized we had photographed a partial solar eclipse that evening. LOL. The shots were awesome. All we had to do was to dial-back some of the exposure features on digital editing...and there it was. Anyway, my dad got some good shots last night with his iPhone. They are a bit grainy, but it looked like TRI had decent skies. The moon was definitely red in his shots.
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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Those model runs which suggested a BN May or much BN May are in serious trouble.- 216 replies
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Some much needed rainfall in NE TN/SW VA. @tnweathernutshared with me that part of I-81 were in rough shape in SW VA as one area received like 6-8" of hail. So, in some places...too much of a good thing.
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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
If this next batch of precip weakens as it approaches NE TN(as it has for much of spring), we may find ourselves on the drought monitor by next month. It is getting quite dry. That is a bad sign for summer in regards to heat and drought. Looks like Niña conditions will persist for a while.- 216 replies
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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Frost advisory here this morning and temps in the mid-30s.- 216 replies
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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The 18z GFS seems to be honing-in on yet another trough amplification around the second week of May, and yes....snow showers in the mountains. Unreal.- 216 replies
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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
IMHO, depends on if there is a Nina hangover. If there is, early summer could be hot and dry. If Nino begins to take over, the middle to second half of summer could be seasonal (which still means hot) and decent precip. I haven't looked that closely at though, so huge grains of salt there. Spring seems to have been a mix of both.- 216 replies
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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
The 6z GFS has high elevation snows for May 2nd. Not good.- 216 replies
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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looks like more BN wx is inbound. Going to have to get some tomato plants in the ground regardless. Time to garden. May is gonna be a fight to keep things growing on track. We had extended summer last fall. After three very summer like days, we are about to get the exact opposite for the first half of May.- 216 replies
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It is a little breezy right now but due to kick up. Just heard in the radio that Johnson Co schools are closed to frozen precip up there.
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The cold front pushed through just after 4:30 yesterday. I covered up a good chunk of the garden in preparation for frost. Though I am not sure it frosted, the water on the tarps is frozen. So, it looks like we had a bit of a flash freeze just before dawn.
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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I talked to my Dad who is in his 70s. He said that he remembers springs during his childhood as being really windy. Neither of us remember winds like we have had so far with the exception of maybe one year(can't remember which). Yeah, I am good delaying the really hot weather. This weather is not a huge deal right now, but if it were to drag into May...this could have a negative effect on farmers and gardeners in the region. And yes, it looks like modeling keeps trying to spin up storms/fronts which drag cooler/cold air into our region for a while. My backyard definitely looks the best that it ever has. That is probably true for my street(front yards) as well.- 216 replies
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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
And yet another strong trough amplification is showing up consistently around April 22.- 216 replies
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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just read that Red Lodge, MT, (ski slopes) received 27" of snow in 24 hours. I saw on social media that Pony, MT, received 30". Those front range blizzards during spring are no jokes.- 216 replies
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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Meanwhile, in Bismarck, ND... Seriously, there are some great live shots of the blizzard on NDDOT. https://travel.dot.nd.gov/?layers=cameras,closed-blocked,event-orange,incident-red,informational-grey,roads,travelalerts,warning-blue,warning-yellow- 216 replies
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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Not sure if we are in an El Nino ENSO state quite yet, but LR modeling doesn't appear to be through with sending repetitive troughs into the eastern half of the country. Honestly, I am starting to become a little concerned that I am going to be able to get my garden out on time. Soil temps are going to be SLOW to warm with this pattern. In addition, it is possible that frost may be a problem well into May. In ten days, I have to start hardening off my tomatoes with the idea to plant them come Derby weekend. Going to be a tight fit to get those in with the modeled cold upcoming.- 216 replies
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Awesome!!!!
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We are going to need some specialty beer cans out there in order to verify amounts....j/k. Nice shots!
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We have had two snow showers(almost looked convective in nature....). Precip began as rain, then it hailed...and then it switched to snow. I don't think the transition was grapple. The hail was pea size. I am not sure I have every seen that sequence of precip.
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I jus tread on social media that LeConte Lodge has 6.5" of snow and counting. Driving to JC tonight, I could see peaks(along the spine of the Apps) over 5,000' have snow on them. On the way back from JC as we were crossing Bays on I-26, snow was falling w/ a mix in the valley where rates where high.
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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
And we repeat the pattern of extreme warmth followed by snow. Whew! We've been doing this pattern swing thing for over three months.- 216 replies
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The wind is just howling again this afternoon. Have I moved to Chicago?!