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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Totally knew this would happen after stating the above....now the system has dropped south of the VA line. Going to get a few rounds of rain here it looks like.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, Nina summers never want to end. I am not sure I can think of one which ended early. Oddly, I think I remember @John1122mentioning that some Nina summers can have a lot of precip. Right now, it is a good lesson on how Kingsport gets much less precip than every one else(even within a short distance), and I am not complaining this go around. Storms are sliding through @1234snow's neighborhood currently. We had one passing shower here. About 5 miles to my north, flood warnings are posted due to training of storms. It has been that way all week. We have had our share of rain, but nothing like what the folks in SW VA and KY are experiencing. Temps IMBY have finals moderated from the 90s furnace that consumed the first half of summer. The humidity is another story altogether. And yes, this pattern has been locked in for weeks. Ridging out West and ridging over the SE. The Plains...better make sure their AC is primed and working. Man.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Gag.
  4. Carvers Gap
    LOL. That is strange stuff. I see it this morning over the same spot. What in the world?
  5. Carvers Gap
    One the plus side, my yard was gone from "crispy brown" to green in the places which are still alive! Whiplash gardening this summer to paraphrase @1234snow.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, this kind of how I remember it as a kid. What I fear the most are the extended droughts like the year we had the forest fire on the west slopes of the Smokies. The back and forth pattern with July being rainy is what I remember. I also remember August being almost always hot. That said, usually we would get our first cold front before the middle of September. There is less fall than when I was a kid. On the flip side, it almost never snowed at my home(Knoxville then) before Jan1. Lately, we have had more snow in Nov/Dec than when I was a kid. During the past few winters, it seems like most of the winter wx IMBY has come prior to Jan1. But still, one common denominator of the last 20 years seems to be that summer lasts well into September. It would be nice to catch an early fall this year though I don't expect it due to La Nina. As an aside and not directed at 1234....Man, I feel terrible for the folks in Yosemite right now. Big fire there. What is crazy is that the Cascades north of California seemed to have done ok in regards to snow pack. That said, it is has been HOT out West in places and no amount of snowpack is going to keep the forests from drying out in that heat. Sometimes, great snowpack just adds more fuel for the fire season later that summer.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Wonder if that might be fog?
  8. Carvers Gap
    Pretty amazing how quiet the tropics are this year(so far). Just looking at the LR, that might change in August.
  9. Carvers Gap
    LOL. The past couple of months must be what a wx forum in the desert looks like. It's hot and dry. I'll be back when it rains again.............................................................................................
  10. Carvers Gap
    La Nina summers are the worst. We have picked up some more rain during the past 2-3 weeks after an incredibly long spell without a drop. Even with all of the rain, it is still pretty easy to see how stressed the yards and plants have been prior. And yeah, what is coming for west TN is scorching hot it appears.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Since my last posts about precip, we have received a out 2” of desperately needed rain IMBY.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 0z GFS is very warm late in the run. Most cool downs have not verified. We may, however, get a slight reprieve here before descending into the next heat wave later this month.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Cosgrove mentioned on FB that a pattern shakeup was possible in about a month. If I read it correctly, the wheels might be starting to turn on that now, but will take some time for the current pattern to decay. We have been roasting here. That would be a welcome change, even if temporary. On a positive note, it has been raining for about three hours here. Feels a bit foreign to hear rain falling for that long!
  14. Carvers Gap
    You all under a sever T-storm warning?
  15. Carvers Gap
    Finally, rain!!! My yard is fried, but it will green up some with this. Big thunderstorm complex over TRI heading SE. Loads of rain here. I would say we are somewhere between 0.5-0.75".
  16. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the return to moderation was a total mirage. When there is heat modeled for Texas, it usually finds a way into our area. The furnace is on with no end in sight. This summer is going to be remembered as a hot one. A good chunk of the forum area is now showing up on the drought monitor. I have zero idea how my area is not. I have had about .50 of an inch of rain in three weeks. We had one rainy-sh day and one stray shower which barely got the dirt wet. My yard is fried. I have quite watering it. At this point, I am just watering the garden.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Keep that heat on the GFS in Texas!!! If that comes eastward, we are gonna bake. Wowza at the 12z. They are almost out of colors.
  18. Carvers Gap
    We will cross our fingers and hope this doesn't come to pass, but the ingredients are beginning to come together for a whopper of a heat weave around mid-July. The position of hp is in an optimal position for a classic heat wave over the SE late in those runs. The 6z GFS, while certainly at range, is an extreme event after 300. The GEFS and GEPS have been hinting for the past few runs that heat will build into the Plains, and then work eastward. We WANT the EPS to be right.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the rainfall which we received here is basically used up. Nina summers are the worst. I hold out hope that the ridge will hold out west through August. When it comes eastward again, it is gonna get HOT again!
  20. Carvers Gap
    Same here, Met. Much respect for you as well. We are cool!
  21. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I had zero idea our discussion was headed in the direction of climate change. As a generality, we have kept those conversations on the Climate Change forum. I am not having the discussion with you nor will I be preached to about it. I am merely stating that we have had more big snows in recent years IMBY (on this side of the Apps) during November/December than when I was growing up. I noted the mountains were different. Honestly, I would go back and give you dates/accumulations from those storms, but I don't think that is the discussion you were looking for. For me this discussion is over. I don't appreciate getting baited into this type of discussion. Besides, this is the spring/summer long range discussion anyway.
  22. Carvers Gap
    December 2020 was a snowy month here. First year La Nina. November 2021 was ~3 BN at TRI last year. Overall, I would say middle and west TN won't complain about the last two winters - STELLAR! NE TN and the the Apps have gotten the screw job for sure. Again, La Nina is a pain here though I do think I like weak La Nina's as there is more to track on this side of the Apps. It is abysmal on your side quite often. Of note, and @John1122can answer this better than I, Decembers seem to be a bit more snowier of late than they used to be, especially in the valley. It used to never snow here prior to Christmas. It has not been uncommon of late. Seems like winters tend to start a bit earlier and end earlier.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Last December was just ridiculous, but November here was BN. The year prior, December 2020 was BN. Usually if we have La Nino one or both of those months fall below normal at TRI. Our last two winter seasons started early, but quickly moderated to AN as La Nina just went bonkers.
  24. Carvers Gap
    To this point in June, TRI averages 3.24" of rain. Prior to the rain today, they only had 0.92" for the entire month! That is like living in the desert.
  25. Carvers Gap
    We got about 0.50" since last night. Everything is so brown, not sure how much it is going to help. It did give us a break in watering the garden today! Thankful for that!
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