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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, @John1122 may have some additional analogs as well along that line. Every once in a while, winter hits and holds during this type of ENSO pattern.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that fits with what many have been saying here for a bit.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Kind of crazy, but there is a winter wx set-up in the day 7-10 time frame. Climatology says otherwise, but still.....
  4. Carvers Gap
    Gonna have to read my comment today in the Winter Spec Thread for this to make sense. The hybrid coastal/inland snow set-up is clearly apparent on the 18z GFS late. No idea if that verifies, but the potential is there. It is not unprecedented. I remember @tnweathernuthaving to trudge through snow to get to the South Carolina game one year....snow in South Carolina!!!!
  5. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS looks solidly chill. And yeah, wouldn't be the first time to use up a great pattern in October. Seems to be a trend during the past decade or so. I have seen way more early season snow/cold than normal of late. General rule -> Tropical hybrid system which produces inland snow wrecks havoc on early winter projected patterns.
  6. Carvers Gap
    We were in Clarksville Saturday more middle school state XC championships. Pretty amazing how dry it is there.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Some signs that a fairly stout(but is it long lasting?) PNA ridge is about to form with and ensuing downstream eastern trough later this month. Still a bit early for the early winter La Nina climatology to kick-in, so we'll see. It is showing up on ensembles pretty consistently and starting to show somewhat sporadically on operational runs. But it looks "not warm." Trough is also in the Aleutians which tele connects well to cold here.
  8. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I generally distrust complex wx teleconnections, but it was worth a read. Niña is SER in default in my backyard for J-F.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Courtesy of the MA Winter Thread. Pour yourself a cup of coffee(or two), this gonna take a bit to read.... https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/
  10. Carvers Gap
    Modeling has been all over the place with this Tropical system...looks like the eastward solutions (in relation to the forum area) are preferred this morning.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I like this forecast. Probably the kiss of death, but I am gonna lock this in with no changes.
  12. Carvers Gap
    At least the past 3 runs of the GFS like bringing a tropical system into the forum area late next week. Still PLENTY of time for that time change, but something in the medium to long range to keep an eye on...
  13. Carvers Gap
    Ugh. Shortest post ever.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Agree. Seasonal models seem to want to center a cold shot towards late December into January. HOWEVER, as you aptly note, climatology would favor a cold Nov/Dec. Not a slam dunk by any means as I am sure there are a cluster of colder Januarys(thinking of @John1122's examples from last year or the year prior). Also, man, I am not expert on third year La Nina's. Since really beginning to follow the wx, I don't think I have seen too many(maybe 1 or 2). Plus, the Euro seasonals IMHO are not super accurate until the month before the winter season begins. Lots of wiggle room right now. Great post though!
  15. Carvers Gap
    Euro seasonal with a classic endless summer sig all the way into November. Looks like the ridge sets up shop out West sometime in December and carries into January. Part of December looks quite warm on the seasonals, but the upper air pattern is centered westward which seems to signal a flip sometime about mid-month(heavy extrapolation by me) if the model is correct. January looks good re: upper air pattern. That would be an old fashioned winter seasonal transition. Shoulder season so take with a HUGE grain of salt, but a La Nina pattern appears set to persist.
  16. Carvers Gap
    We are not quite to the bell lap which is winter, but if we are running the 1500m on the track...this is just about lap 3. Man, what a beautiful day out there. This has been a glorious stretch of days for what normally is the sweltering, sweaty mess which is August. How long does it last? IDK, but for every day like today, that is just one less day of the dog days. One of my kids asked me this morning if it was going to be this "cold" all day. That is not a question one gets often during August!!!! Anyway, that is more of an observation, but indeed, this is the pattern thread for September-October-November. Please keep the summer thread going until August is through. However, if those thoughts begin to include September - October...then go ahead and place them here if you choose. Hope this isn't too early to begin the Fall thread - no trying to step on any toes.
  17. Carvers Gap
    That is like talking to a thirsty man in the desert who is out of water...about buying stock in Dasani.
  18. Carvers Gap
    More rain here. Some great cloud formations here tonight. Volatile and rolling cloud formations. Sky just went dark when those storms came through.
  19. Carvers Gap
    @John1122, of the third year La Ninas, how many of those winters began early, i.e. December?
  20. Carvers Gap
    Re-upped my model package this month. So, here goes. Temp forecast above looks similar to the Euro seasonal which just came out. I am not tooting my own horn, I just don' want to have to retype it. November is warm. Rest of the seasonals look on target. Remember. TOTAL crapshoot from this far out. I will say if the seasonals are correct....we can absolutely live with that.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Considering bumping Jan-Feb to +3F for the 60 day time frame. With the QBO set to be firmly positive by the winter in conjunction with a La Nina and poor PDO state for cooler temps...this winter has some torch potential. That said, sometimes when things seemed line-up up perfectly for heat or cold, they do they opposite. So, I remain guarded. This winter is a tough call - three straight Ninas? That said, if the Nina is weak enough, I think we still see plenty of cold and plenty of warm - similar swings to last winter. For DJF, I would say temps will finish AN to well AN. Areas east of the Plateau should keep there hopes tempered in regards to snow, especially NE TN. Just not a great set-up at this point. That said, keep on cooling the Pacific so that the gradients return...and I am good.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Interesting stuff. Maybe not excited to know that this will cause warming for up to 6-8 years due to the amount of water vapor injected in the upper atmosphere. Still -> fascinating. https://www.foxnews.com/science/tonga-volcano-spews-enough-water-fill-olympic-size-swimming-pools-stratosphere
  23. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, man. I just quite watering the grass altogether. I couldn't keep up. My yard has gone from zero to hero.
  24. Carvers Gap
    These rain showers remind me of the afternoon showers in Florida - very heavy and drop a lot of rain in a hurry.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Not good. Yeah, it was terrible here until about three weeks ago. Pretty sure at one point we were pushing 4 weeks with barely a drop in my back yard. About 20% of my yard is still just dead and soggy brown. The other half looks like Florida during rainy season - lush and green. It is surreal to see this much rain after barely a drop. The effects of the drought(which just ended) are numerous. If we had gone about two more weeks, we would have had severe fire issues. Spring was very dry IMBY. I raise a batch of beans on city water pretty much. For you folks in KY and Virginia, my heart goes out to your communities. I cannot imagine. Hang in there.
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