Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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I have been sucked-in by La Nada before which is what the SSTs kind of look like. La Nada often looks great at the start, but lots and lots of swings and misses. That said, I have a hard time seeing lots of. misses w/ the Dec-Jan setup as depicted on this month's seasonal Euro. That is about as good as it gets. The fly in the ointment would be cold source and a ridge bellying underneath across the South. The Great Lakes region looks primed for cold. Can it get south of the Ohio River? We will see. I do agree the QBO should be good for this winter - such an odd metric to be so accurate. Honestly, it is a weak Nina in the eastern Pac and a weak Nino in the western Pac -> maybe that is the ticket which is the best of both worlds. That warmer western Pac might be enough to get convection into phase 8-1 during mid winter. It may well be that we see the NAO fire again as recent winters have seen it much more active in a good way. John might have better information about Nada's w his personal records in conjunction w/ the QBO. His data set is the only data set I truly trust for this region.
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The Euro seasonal SST anomalies don't really line-up w the NA pattern. AN SSTs in the centiral IO imply convection which spreads into the Maritime Continent. @nrgjeff@Daniel Boone@Met1985@John1122@GaWx@Math/Met what is causing those big blocks over NA w/ the Pac and IO basins being meh? If I didn't tag you, please don't be offended. Feel free to jump right in. I know some folks from other forums might also have some input. If you don't have access to SST maps, I can post those.
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Like the CANSIPS seasonals which were just released, the Euro seasonals show decent signals for HL blocking for Dec-Jan. That would fit nicely with a weak La Nina. No, I haven't checked SSTs yet for the Euro.
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Wait, there is more....that would be a double block. Some zonal underneath, but that would very likely get the job done.
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Yep. That will do it.
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Record high min at TRI yesterday. One thing I have noticed is that the point-and-click forecasts have been way too high all summer(at range) for MBY. I had mid-upper 90s forecast for much of last week(early and middle). If I remember correctly, 93 was as high as it got. The Apple wx app has been more accurate.
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A steady light rain is falling. Temps are cool. It is so surreal. It is like someone flipped a switch. Very thankful for the blessing of cooler weather.
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Man, it feels freaking awesome outside. After weeks and weeks of serious humidity, it feels like fall out there. Winds are out of the north and it feels glorious.
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The August CANSIPS is out. Normal to BN temps through December. AN temps Dec/Jan w/ a gradient type of cold centered over the Great Lakes. Feb is BN. There is definitely room for cold intrusions w/ most of the intense warmth centered out West through Feb. The ridge will slide eastward at times, but the key feature is a trough over the EC. I still have my doubts as endless summer seems to be a recent and nasty weather trend during fall. The CANSIPS seems to imply that the worst of summer is behind us with the exception of a 2-3 weeks of near certain return of summer temps. Is it right, IDK but the CFSv2 seems in agreement about normal to BN temps over the forum area for Fall.
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***Update***Almost 4” of rain in less than an hour. Flooding has been significant and impressive. Scannerfood has a ton of photos from the region. Only in Florida have I seen it rain that long and with that intensity. I was using a snow shovel and a squeegee to push water out of my garage - losing battle! I will try to upload some photos later.
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Always good to see cold fronts pressing south of the Canadian border during early August. Nice little aforementioned(by TV crew) summer relief incoming later this week. I haven't feel like this summer has been overly hot, but it has for sure been overly humid. We got a nice thunderstorm mid-day today w/ some much needed rain. Kingsport tends to do what Chattanooga does during many events....we get the rain shadow from 500 different directions. To my surprise, my run was in light run early this morning.
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He is gonna be missed greatly.
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The lightning in these storms around TRI has been insane. We have definitely been catching a break with more rain than we have been getting. TRI seems to dry out during July-October...so we take what we can get. What Helene did was super similar to what happened in the Smokies many years ago when the road between the Y and Gatlinburg was wiped out. I am beginning to think these events are slightly more common than once thought. Buffalo Mountain had a catastrophic flood just out of the blue several years ago.
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Glacier NP is expecting snow above 8000' tomorrow. So, is that a "last snow of the season" or the "first snow of the season?" It is kind of crazy, but it really hasn't quit snowing in the West this year. I saw it with my own eyes. For places above 10,000', fall begins and ends during September.
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It amazes me more and more with each passing each year how much PAC and IO ocean SSTs impact the eastern half of NA. Now, I gotta remember to factor in the North Atlantic? LOL
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Both the CANSIPS and Euro Seasonals have the coastal BN SSTs in the NE Pac basin subsiding. So, no bueno on those. Still plenty of warmth where we need to be cool west of that. The CFS seasonal today has a complete flip of the PDO to a more favorable conditions by October, though I have my doubts as it doesn't have support from other models. It looks like a weak La Nina(fall and winter) from say just west of the dateline to South America - and I mean weak. Some might even call that a La Nada, but that setup would allow for the jet to buckle in the East IMHO by late fall. Even just getting those NE Pac coastal temps to neutral would help as it would prevent the trough from locking into the West.
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What did the July 1 seasonals show for winter in that area in regards to GOA SSTs? It seems like the June 1 CANSIPS had it easing up a bit. I need to look more closely at July1.
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I managed to find my way to Mammoth Lakes last week and part of this week. We saw it snow at 10k’ as a thunderstorm complex dropped temps like a rock while we were hiking. We had temps in the low 40s. The mountain range to our east had new snowfall the next morning. Crazy how the weather behaves at high elevation.
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Point Barrow, AK, is cold next week. Yes, I do follow the weather there. It sometimes can give a hint of things to come. If cold builds their early - good thing. Highs in the mid to low 30s next week.
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Same here. I am just glad not to be in a deficit as early spring was incredibly dry IMBY. Nice turn of evens. It seems like NE TN is often closer to drought than deluge. I am honestly surprised by the cool start to summer.
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This is the best easy summer for rain in a long time IMBY. My garden looks like it is on steroids.
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I always forget about the IO, and it burns be every...single...time I forget about it. Usually Jeff comes in and is like, "Lots of convection moving into the Maritime Continent." It took me a few times, but then I figured out that was code for...winter is about to go to crap! LOL.
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I will work on some analogs packages. This is tricky this year as we were more La Nina last winter, trended back to neutral, and may trend weakly negative again. For now and subject to change... Temps... Dec: BN Jan: N Feb: AN Precip... All months normal to slightly BN IMHO...but w/ a chance for slightly AN if you like the CANSIPS. Snow... AN eastern valley w/ an early start normal everywhere else w/ snow a bit later in middle and west (but honestly might be similar to what you got this winter)
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The CANSIPS and Euro seasonals have the PDO going to neutral w/ warmer SST temps moving closer to the coast of northern NA as winter progresses. The La Nina on both models is weak and/or trending to neutral as winter progresses. I could almost cut and paste last winter's forecast with one exception....the QBO is more favorable.
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Preliminary ideas. I look for a second winter of La Nina. Extended summer looks likely with a sharp turn to winter later in November, though the CANSIPS argues for an early fall. The Euro seasonal has summer lasting through fall. A 3-4 week period in December and January could be frigid. The QBO is now falling and has reached negative territory. Oddly, the data shows the QBO dipped negative briefly (and sharply) during December 2024 out of nowhere - interesting. To me, that looks like a mistake w/ the +/- symbol. Either way, it is falling now as we hit summer. By December, we should be hitting rock bottom. I think the stage is set for another frigid stretch sometime after or around mid-December. Sorry, I haven't been on for a bit. I have been taking a break and recharging. I have not looked at the EPO yet.
