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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, amen to that.....and with the strat getting jostled....things can change. The good thing is that seasonal patterns and the MJO do provide good underpinnings.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Sorry for the flurry of LR posts. Last post of the evening and a cherry picked one at that. GEFS Ext Control 35day snow maps(multiple storms with that...it isn't just one)...
  3. Carvers Gap
    Sorry to bury your comment w/ 1,000 posts of mine. Just bumping it so folks can see it.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The CMC Weeklies ran tonight as well. They are substantially colder. Here is the last week of the month....The CMC Weeklies begin get cold right around the 20th.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Right now, I am just waiting for the 35d snow map for the GEFS EXT control......it should be fun.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I may have! Ha! It is getting late, so I probably should save the rest of my comments/rudimentary analysis for tomorrow. About this time of night, it all runs together for me! These runs tonight look decent in terms of precip timing and colder temps. If I remember back in December, it was pretty obvious from the word "go" that cold snap was going to be problematic in re: to precip as we were just exiting drought conditions west of the Apps. Now, that cold control run above is definitely drier than the ensemble mean. That much cold would squash even the hardiest SER.
  7. Carvers Gap
    GEFS Ext has above normal precip over the TN Valley during the colder weeks, and it looks like a textbook setup w/ the most precip over middle TN...but pretty much the entire forum area is AN for precip though. Euro Weeklies look to have normal precip during its coldest "mean" timeframes..... FWIW, the Weeklies control is also very similar but slightly less extreme east of the MS. Its mean ensemble is about week later w/ a much more watered down look understandably since it is a blend.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Let me dig back through the Euro Weeklies and GEFS Ext to see what the precip anomalies are....
  9. Carvers Gap
    Cosgrove I thought the same. It would fit the repeating pattern that you, Boone, and Holston have been kicking around. The GEFS EXT ensemble is much less cold...but still cold for an ensemble at this range. I know you know this...but I like looking at the control just to see what a non-washed-out member would look like. I was like, "Wow." The run is still ongoing. It is colder than the map above. Right now, I think trying to get the timing of any outbreak is going to be tough. The window(range of dates) for the outbreak is roughly Jan25-Feb10. It could still go poof or it could get crazier. I have always felt like that range of dates has held some of our best winter weather during my lifetime. We will find out soon if the cold snap in December was winter's opening act or just its only act!
  10. Carvers Gap
    Still conflicting signals out there about where this heads, but modeling seems (today) to be adding the potential for a pretty serious cold outbreak in weeks 3-4, especially weak 4. That timeframe is fraught w/ forecasting danger! So take all of this with huge grains of salt(boulders if necessary). There is a lot on the table right now in terms of medium range tracking and LR modeling. Models are juggling quite a bit.
  11. Carvers Gap
    GEFS Ext (control)...check this out. Way out there so huge grains of salt, especially since it is a control run. We have been talking about the MJO disconnect on modeling. Something is gonna have to give. Well, I hope this is the "give." That has both an Alaskan and NAO block. I am NOT saying this is going to happen, but that would make the cold in December feel like a walk at the beach.
  12. Carvers Gap
    GEF Ext control got into it as well......I think it is a hair to quick. This is similar to some of the looks showing up in the weeks 3-4. There are still some work looks as well. But the "holiday shine" look is more fun to look at!!! LOL
  13. Carvers Gap
    Considering the bleak look from several days ago...we have traded in our Yugo for an F150. Basically we are leaving a pattern that just kind of took us around town, and at times didn't run at all...for a pattern which is steady and something you can work with. Key takeaways from Euro Weeklies: 1. Developing NAO late in Feb as the run ends. Why lead off w/ something way out there? It fits NAO climatology where NAOs return. It implies spring will be delayed. 2. The HB block is now on the clock. Within a couple of weeks, we are transitioning quickly to something else. What is that something else? See below.... 3. Pattern after that will feature a very November-ish pattern where cold settles into the Mountain West and spread eastward in waves. It is not without some warmth, but hey...we live in the South. We are gonna have some warm days during winter. 4. The SER is going to be present, but gets beat down at times. With as much cold on the map in early Feb...we might need a bump from that feature. 5. Beginning the 20th through almost the end of February - base seasonably cold pattern w/ variability. 6. Base warm pattern until the 20th w/ storms cutting under the block. 7. Source region for cold is less maritime and more Canadian or Arctic in nature as the run progresses. 8. This run fits nicely w/ the CFSv2 run from today and yesterday. 9. Nice look late in the third week in January into the fourth week w/ EPO ridge and increasing cold. First and second weeks of February are the core of the cold shot....but it never really leaves, just moderates to normal. Is it right? We will find out....
  14. Carvers Gap
    And in the LR...The Euro Weeklies looks quite chilly with each passing week. I will have an update on that later. One thing on ensembles this evening, the trough out west vanishes about d14(poof!). The Euro control has a fairly stout NAO at the end. What I am beginning to think will happen is a classic phase 8 MJO look. Remember the MJO is moving very slowly and add in the lag....cold look in the LR (weeks 3-4 and maybe 5-6). The CFSv2 just has wave after wave of cold air beginning in a couple of weeks. Good trends this afternoon after a meh overnight suite.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Boom.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Greenville/Spartanburg radar is going to be down a month if social media is accurate. That means western NC folks will be using MRX. With the shadow of the mountains, the high elevation folks may just have to eyeball it.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Both the 18z CFSv2 and GFS EXT depict a very cold continent by the end of the month which originates in a step-down pattern beginning about mid-month. And this a 30 day snapshot....keep in mind that the CFSv2 has a cold bias. Just interpreting its 500mb anomalies - intermittent SER and cold shots direct from the Arctic and/or Montana. I will try to update the GEFS EXT later. It is still running. Are they right? We will find out soon.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Modeling is definitely sensing the MJO d10+, at least on the 12z GEPS. Phase 1 is textbook BN heights stretching from Montana to the Southeast.
  19. Carvers Gap
    What is crazy, Kingsport got almost nothing - maybe an 1" or 2". I got into work the next morning, and a friend of mine called in sick(pre mass cell phone ownership) who lived in JC. He said he wasn't coming into work in Kingsport for 4-5 days, because of the damage done to his house. By the time I heard this, the ground was bare in Kingsport. We thought he was pulling our legs until news footage game out of Johnson City. They got smashed. I am not sure Sullivan got too much snow from that one. Although, we had another similar event maybe the year prior or year after where we got slammed and JC did not. JC got the change over due to rates, and we had a lot of mix. In just this one case, that might be a legit observation from TRI. But as you and I have noted and documented, the snow record during the 90s has been tampered with - no other nice way to say it. For either Jan or Feb 96, they had(hope that is fixed now) missing data for a major storm. I actually found their map that they had made, and they wouldn't use it to update the missing data. That conversation occurred many years ago. What happened served to depress our snowfall totals during the 90s. @Holston_River_Rambler, awesome radar!
  20. Carvers Gap
    I had a couple, but I don't think they fit they answer. It's complicated.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The CFSv2 is now honking that this pattern will not reset after the potential big storm. The heat will rebound, but the heights are shown to be ejected out of HB. That opens the door for the trough to slide eastward and the much talked about PNA ridge goes nuts later this month. Some pretty major changes today by that model. Is it right and will the trends hold on a highly variable model? We will see. The 12z EPS is seeing something as it likely has members which are moving the cold eastward. Its ensemble also pushed the HB block out. It is difficult to tell if it resets or goes to something new. Judging by this look, there are a couple of possibilities. A faint phase 8-1-2 there? Maybe. Is it right? We will see.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro indeed has a storm just after 200. For southwest VA, that run was decent...It is worth mention as this is ten days out and other modeling has it. IMHO, the floor for this window is obviously nada. There is a pretty high ceiling. They system cuts southeast from St Louis, through middle/west TN towards the SC Piedmont, and off shore of Savanah in almost a straight line. Welcome to funky blocking tracks. Long way to go. Here are the slides just because there is no other game in town. One key component of several of the runs at 12z is HP over the top. This is a great example of how a pattern can have AN heights, but the details are missed by the long wave looks at long range. The mean ridge is in the East, but weakness is over coastal SE.
  23. Carvers Gap
    This is the GFS 500mb vorticity gif for the entire run.(It is the GFS at range...tread lightly). Notice the vortices rotating under the HB block. The track slowly shifts southward and forces storms to dig. AAgain, it is apparent that with so many moving pieces....it is highly likely any one solution is correct at this point. I am just pointing out that the trend is to dig a system over the SE or the SE coast. I am also attaching the 12z CMC run which shows similar tendencies. You can actually see the vortices rotating around the HB block. That is a more traditional HB look than we have seen on modeling recently.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I highly doubt modeling has this nailed down yet(oldy but goody phrase). Seems like we are seeing northern stream energy cut under the HB block. Some solutions phase east of us. Some are completely northern stream driven which drop to our west and cut under us. The big storm confluence is to our east, though the GFS does have a big system in la la land which is more of a Miller A. I will check the run-to-run differences in terms of temps. What I am interested in seeing is whether modeling is cooling off in the medium range. It looks like it just glancing, but can't be sure until I pull that map up.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Takeaway so far from the 12z suite(Euro on deck): There are systems to track, and plenty of them. Most are sitting d7+ so plenty of time to iron out details. Modeling does seem to be catching-up to the MJO phase now - very loosely. @tnweathernut, remind me how the big snow in JC occurred. I always forget. It seems like that was a marginal event as well.
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