Carvers Gap
-
Posts
16,262 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Carvers Gap
-
At 18hours, it is already slower w/ the energy out west. -
The 12z GFS is rolling. I expect it to look like the NAM. I could be wrong, but I bet it budges.
-
The 12k NAM, and who knows if it is right at this range, has precip starting about midnight on Saturday night. The best dynamics for snow aren't until mid-day Sunday. Best case scenario is the rain changes to snow Saturday night. That would cool the air column and keep it snow. If we are having to get marginal temps to cool during the middle of the day on Sunday...might be tough sledding.
-
That is the problem.
-
This is one of these systems that might lollipop somebody. Three years ago the Plateau had a storm which was quite similar almost at the exact time of year. We had a robotics tournament in Cookeville, and the Plateau had been hammered.
-
Meanwhile, this look waaaaay out there is prime.
-
We need that system to crank. Has time of day changed? That would cause thermal profile issues.
-
Remind me why the inverted trough is good. I know it helps, but I always forget about how that actually works.
-
This is the 6z off run of the Euro operational. These snow maps are incomplete as the storm is not finished. I have the last slide of both accumulations and slp/preciptype maps. The control definitely has issues w/ the thermal profile in the valley. I would think the west side of the eastern valley is in a slightly better spot with this set-up as downsloping is less here.
-
Yeah, it did for sure. Now let's hope the Euro doesn't go west!
-
If modeling locks down that track by the time the Euro runs, somebody start a thread. If it busts, it busts. Nobody will fault you. For now, it is the NAM and snow starts about 60 hours in the southern valley....so just beware of the NAM.
-
12z NAM left the GFS camp. I suspect the GFS will now leave quite soon. If one uses the non-Kuchera extrapolated rates, this is the total. By rule in the forum, the map with the most snow must always be used. j/k...but sort of not.
-
My confident in seeing snow w/ this system is quickly diminishing. Modeling is all over the place. Best of luck to the overnight crew.
-
It does. It was late to the game w/ the ice storm, and took a long time to correct to the CMC. It really wasn't close to being accurate until about 24hours to go.
-
Three windows I feel are interesting, because cold fronts are likely involved. 1. Feb 11th 2. Feb 18th 3. Last four days of Feb and/or first few days of March.
-
And if you think cold weather is done for the season, I am just gonna leave this here. That Feb18-21st window is decent. 1040hp parked over Memphis feeding cold into the Gulf Coast.
-
Exactly!
-
Cone is Nashville to Raleigh. Range of options is rain to 12" of snow. When in doubt, go cold rain. LOL.
-
The 18z Euro and 18z GFS don't even look like they are modeling the same storm at the surface.
-
I mean where can one get that type of information other than here, and for free at that. This is such a great forum.
-
Agree. There is a HP which is sitting over the top which might be blocking it, but there is not bitterly cold air mass shunting southward. That said bowling balls are notoriously tough to predict.
