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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    I am starting to feel like modeling has a decent handle on the timing of the upcoming 500 pattern. Webb mentioned this on Twitter. JB mentioned this as well, and so did Cosgrove. -> The pattern, which began the days after Christmas and will end early this week, is set to repeat itself beginning Feb 7th. Now, that might sound like I am speeding up the timeline. Nope, not in general. Maybe an argument can be made that modeling has moved forward about 72 hours depending on the metric (500 vs surface temps). MJO plots reflected that this morning - slightly speeding up the return of winter. The second week of Feb(7-14) will be similar to the transition right after Christmas. Ridge gets kicked out. BN heights (weak at first) begin to nudge under the eastern ridge. The trough will have little to no cold in it. Eventually, the trough builds in the East w/ a -NAO building over the top. Look familiar? By Valentine's Day, the Weeklies have this: By the third week in February, we get this in regards to temps - round 2. Now, we need BN temps by this time in order to have a decent shot at snow(average temps are higher by this time), and that is what is in order if this model is correct. Week 1 - warm. Week 2 - less warm. Week 3 - cold. Week 4 cold. Early March - cold. I feel like I have seen this movie before. Jet retracts. MJO rotates into colder phases. NAO fires. Winter. I do think the MJO is playing a familiar game in which it is too slow to rotate in the long range and dawdles too long in warm phases. Let's see if the cold is moved up during the next few days. Models are just now "feeling" the effects of the recent strat warm. It is still possible that model mayhem could ensue.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Sun angle matters to some extent. That said, I have seen snow in Yellowstone on June 14th. They have an elevation advantage and a latitude advantage for sure....but that is almost the summer solstice. February during the past nine winters has been decently boring...but when it is on, it is on. The snow doesn’t last quite as long, but this year might buck the trend. But yes, the return to winter is generally considered our “end” of winter. The can kick from the 7th to mid Feb is a thorn.
  3. Carvers Gap
    MJO runs this morning do show less of a pause in phase 6. As noted, that pause in the long range has been a bias all winter. The MJO has generally sped up some through the end of January. It still goes slower through 6, but fewer models cause it to stay indefinitely. I am still thinking roughly Feb 15 - first week of March. Now, if the CFSv2 is correct...the entire sequence changes up. I don’t think today’s version is correct. No real changes to my thoughts yesterday. It is possible that we see colder timeframe move up slightly during the next few weeklies’ runs in order to reflect the MJO moves. Still a long way to go... The Euro Weeklies switched the pattern back to seasonal around Feb 14-16, and turned very cold by roughly the 20th. Remember how the pattern changed after Christmas but took a couple of weeks for cold air to take over. Same deal. If we can get the pattern change to move up to the 10th, that would be huge.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Starting to see the effects of the strat warm on the Weeklies....much more blocking up top, especially on the control run. The NAO is showing up as well after the 10th.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at the MJO and 12z suite...once we are through the next 48 yours, the real question is when do we go below freezing again after Tuesday. Big time, and likely lengthy warm-up still on tap. We need the CFSv2 to score a coup. Still a micro window around the 31st, but that is fading.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Man, it is just crazy cold outside. We had snow drifting across our roof today. I don't see that often. Wind chill right now is 10.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The GEFS ext is beginning to show a similar look to what we have now....NAO is firing. I "think" that is the strat split doing its work. Feb 15 seems to be the date. As for whether Feb can be a good month? When February is "on," there is no month better for snow. If there is ever a year for a portion of Feb to be good, this is the one. And honestly, some great winters of the past didn't even begin until Feb. With these past La Nina winters, we are used to Feb kicking out West and never coming back. This one might be different.
  8. Carvers Gap
    That big ridge at the end of the 18z GEFS should* do it....that is what should dislodge the TPV and is often what I see right before big changes occur at our latitude. Gonna take some patience. I suspect we see a massive winter storm(or two) along the eastern seaboard before we break for spring. It is a shame to have lost so much of December, but it is what it is. I do expect a quick start to winter next December. Hoping we can get a weak La Nina. If so, game on....
  9. Carvers Gap
    I will add that the massive wild card is the SSW. If we see modeling go haywire...then we know we might be back in business a bit earlier.
  10. Carvers Gap
    So, same rules for me as December for me. I am not going to be in here talking about the upcoming warm-up every day. By my best guess, Jan 24-Feb15 will be a true pattern change w/ much above normal temps. Then, we will try to squeak three weeks of winter from a time of the year which really doesn't want to do winter (of late)....Feb17 through the first week of March. The MJO jerked the rug out from under us for the first few weeks of Feb. To be clear, modeling has been adamant of the MJO going slowly through the warm phases before heading to 8. It is no surprise. However, that same modeling showed very cold temps during that warm MJO rotation, and that looks to be a massive error. So, we will pay the MJO toll....and fingers crossed, return back to tracking in about a month. We do have one window somewhere near Jan 31 which is an outside shot. Other than that, warm temps are on the horizon. So, unless you hear otherwise....I am anticipating warm temps. I will check back in some as the next colder stretch comes into focus(if it comes into focus).
  11. Carvers Gap
    Snow has been kicking here for most of the day.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I was thinking that just a minute ago. I think many (besides the foothills and Chattanooga and TRI) have their seasonal totals. I am about halfway there. I truly don't believe that was the last week of snowy weather. I do, however, think that was our worst week of winter.
  13. Carvers Gap
    What we are dealing with right now is a quickly eroding El Niño.
  14. Carvers Gap
    We managed to get a loop back into 2 which delayed the onset of forecasted warmth. The upcoming warm spell was delayed by about ten days due to that. The overall progression is the same, but ended up being slower. We aren’t going to dodge the MJO warm phases this time around. It is also pretty normal to get a big warmup after a big cold shot like this. In fact, it is not uncommon for winter to end after big cold shots like this. For now, I think winter takes about a 3 week break and maybe 4. I would not be surprised to see winter depart though. However, with phase 8 looming in mid Feb...should be one more (3) week window for winter. Still, keep an eye out for the time frame just before Jan 31 or just after....very small but decent window for a storm if we can get energy into the pattern then. Look for a storm to eject almost due northward then.
  15. Carvers Gap
    One inch of additional snow here, maybe more. Roads in portions of KPT are a mess. We have a layer of glaze underneath.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Moderate to heavy sleet, zr, and sn falling IMBY. Roads are a mess.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Freezing rain in Kingsport.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Definitely a concern, especially closer to the Gulf Coast.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Last two weeks of Feb...that is what we are saying is possible.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Exactly what the Weeklies look like this afternoon for that time frame.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I like Feb 15-17 as a return to sustained cold. If it is earlier, that is a bonus! Otherwise, I think we get very cold last two weeks of that month and first week of March. The Euro Weeklies look very good in that regard. I still am hopeful for some cold around Feb1(quick hitter).
  22. Carvers Gap
    Reel it in, man!!!
  23. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, the CFSv2 seasonal has recently been less than enthusiastic about Feb. However, it threw this out this morning. If that is with a warm start for week 1, then that is signaling a pretty frigid second half of the month.
  24. Carvers Gap
    This is the Jan30-Feb1 timeframe which I mentioned. I don't see anything on deterministic modeling yet. However, that is a great set-up if real. The CMC has more ridging underneath, but maybe watch for a trend for this to deepen if real. This was on Weeklies runs forever, and has washed out a bit lately. However, the GFS would likely pick this up at range first or the Canadian (more ridging over the SE). It is a quick hitter, so timing the STJ with this is important. That is about a 48 hour window for something decent.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Great post.
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