Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,659

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Again, this is the stuff I don't share as often as I should. This is one extreme. Obviously, warmth is the other.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, we have been dealing with cruddy source regions for two weeks(still managed and upslope event even though). One consistent variable among modeling is quite severe cold. If that cold chills Canada, modeling nailed that aspect from about 4 weeks. A deepening storm over the East could potentially send a lot of that eastward until the SER fights back. It could just park in the west and not move(GFS operation), but the MJO would argue that it comes eastward(maybe all of it per CMC). For me, I have been kind of conditioned during the past couple of winters to think the cold dumps west and won't move eastward or stalls on the Plateau. So, that could happen. But some of the historical winter patterns have the Rockies to the Apps cold. It has been a long time since that occurred, but having most of the Lower 48 cold is not without precedent. That said, the SER is definitely Nina climatology, so I think it shows. We just don't want a standing ridge as Jax aptly notes.
  3. Carvers Gap
    And meanwhile, if the 12z Euro is correct(or still just trending northwest which is likely), there is a trackable system this weekend or shortly thereafter if the 12z GEFS is correct.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I don't think we see a +PNA anytime soon, but it would be welcomed if it was. I think we see the -EPO force Canadian cold into the Rockies and then strong cold fronts usher it eastward. The EPO could very well be the mechanism which forces the cold into the Lower 48. The SER will fight. At some point, I do wonder if it all comes eastward per the CMC and CFSv2. The other development is the NAO region showing some hints at rejuvenation. Certainly there are multiple options on the table, and even the GEFS has cold coming eastward at times....it has the stormiest look of all modeling.
  5. Carvers Gap
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS EPO mean is negative.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I hope if anything the models slides above provide examples of what kind of cold air is about to enter the pattern. Models have been adamant for weeks that NA would cool down. There is an increasing likelihood that now verifies. Get those source regions colder w/ shortening wavelengths, and let's see what happens.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Here is what we are dealing with. These are 5day ensemble means for d10-15. The CMC is the most extreme. The EPS seems like a good compromise as the GEFS seems to not see the cold in the East. At this range, I recommend a blend of all three, and that gives us a really good pattern. The last image is for kicks and giggles. That is the Feb2-7th temp anomaly map from the CFSv2. Again, surface pressure anomalies are not the same as 500mb anomalies. With cold air residing near the surface, it is very important to look at surface anomalies which will be AN as the result of cold HP. Cold air can cut under the SER which is why overrunning is a concern.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think this is strat warm stuff. Modeling is crazy haywire in the LR....Outside of the GEFS(which I don't discount BTW), modeling is quite cold for our area and seems to be strengthening with each run.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEPS/EPS ensembles have trended to cold filtering into the Plains. Both are considerably colder than 0z. Even the GEFS has cooled considerably during the past couple of days for the timeframe from 23rd to the 30th. What comes after the 30th is open for fun debate. The EPS has the 500 BN heights in the northwest to end the run, but surface anomalies have quite cold temps over the US from the Rockies eastward. The GEPS is crazy cold. The EPS seems like a good compromise between the aggressive GEPS and feedbacky GEFS runs at 12z.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I think the strength/depth/intensity of the cold air behind it will also matter...especially for the ensuing storms which follow. The CFSv2 is now showing 20-25F degree BN departures for the first week of Feb. Cold dumps into the Plains and spreads eastward (EDIT). Interesting to see where this goes for sure.
  12. Carvers Gap
    This is the 12z EPS for the Jan 22/23 system. That is about where we want it. Some cutters, but majority take the low road.
  13. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, w/ so much cold in play over the Plains, the CMC and Euro arrive pretty much at the same place by the end of their runs(cold front headed east). Neither have budged much. It is odd to see the Euro w/ a progressive bias, but is has had a slight one at times this winter. Again, I suspect the deterministic GFS is having feedback issues over the West. The Canadian and Euro (paired together) for the long wave pattern has been a good pairing all winter. Right now, the GEPS scores the coup if the Euro deterministic is correct. The 12z GEFS does not agree w/ the 12z GFS deterministic. It is really the GFS deterministic vs its own ensemble as well once the storm on the 22nd passes. Those is a pretty big difference. This feels like a similar analysis to the December outbreak. Ride w/ the ensembles as the operationals are going to be all over the place.
  14. Carvers Gap
    This may be a "pay me now or pay me later setup." If it cuts, it sets the boundary for the next storm on the 27th. If it doesn't cut, it forms a storm w/ the 22nd/23rd piece of energy.
  15. Carvers Gap
    We want the 12z Euro to be correct. What follows that storm is also full of multiple winter chances.
  16. Carvers Gap
    That has the makings of a big storm on the 12z Euro. Does it trend to the GFS and cut? I could. But for now, very nice run.
  17. Carvers Gap
    At 180, the 12z Euro has now changed rain over to snow on Plateau. Nice setup.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Indeed, the 12z Euro is coming in w/ a snow event for west TN for the 22nd and 23rd w/ an Apps runner about 173.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The other thing which is showing up in the LR is the NAO returning. There is a pretty significant reshuffle occurring (and about to occur) over the western hemisphere. So right now modeling is juggling these things: 1. Elimination of the Hudson Bay block 2. Warming in the stratosphere over the polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere 3. A possible return of HL blocking and the NAO 4. Likely return of very cold air to North America and the Lower 48. One of those would cause havoc in LR modeling. Add in four of those, and that leaves people and models sorting through layers of data. This is what makes following the weather fun believe it or not. It may end up in our favor and it may not. But I like my chances at some point with all of that in play. So, in general, I roll with Feb Nina climatology which says the cold drops into the Northern Rockies and pushes eastward against a SER which is gonna fight.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I often don't show my entire hand when looking at medium and LR weather. Maybe I should, but sometimes it causes consternation when folks see it as the gospel. So spitballing, this is what I am looking at w/ the 12z ensemble. That is d11, and that looks quite a bit different than the GFS deterministic. Take a minute and look at the boundary (blue line/red line) over the forum area. That is the setup from the previous post which I am referring. It is highly likely that modeling is getting that boundary incorrect. The axis of that cold air mass is going to be massively important. I suspect the GFS deterministic is too far to the West. Why? Its ensemble hints that the cold may press eastward more.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Also, right now at this range, it is wise to use ensembles w/ models bouncing around all over the place.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I would say at this point that I am growing confident that Canada will be refilled w/ cold air within the next ten days. That resets our cold source. Now, the real discussion is whether it dumps west and holds or heads eastward per the CMC. The severity of the cold is on par with the December outbreak. I would suspect that models are going haywire, because extremely cold air is very hard to model. It would make sense to head into the West as that is the path of least resistance due to snowpack....then I think it spreads eastward between the 25-27th. It is a good rule of thumb that when models are bouncing around, very cold air is likely entering the pattern. In my mind, severely cold air plunging into the Lower 48 is increasing in likelihood. Does it hold in the Rockies or head into the Plains and fight the SER. I have said it once and I will say it again...this is a very good setup for west TN. The timing and severity of the cold is strikingly similar to the ice storm set-up from a few years back.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, just double checking temp anomalies....that is substantial improvement overnight. Most ensemble modeling now shows a 7 day(minimum) window beginning around the 23rd. The cold shot on Friday was the opening round which worked to initiate the breakdown of the HB Block. Surprisingly, ensembles are in decent agreement this morning. Details about the system on the 22nd-23rd are going to be murky at this range. For now it looks like it cuts through mid-state...but the Euro does not and take the low road
  24. Carvers Gap
    There is actually a lot of improvement w/ ensembles overnight. The 6z GEFS is actually quite cold - that is a flip by that model. There is quite a lot of agreement now. HB block should be gone by the 22nd-23rd. Cold should push eastward in 2-3 shots.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 0z Euro has a nice pass on the 22nd and then a clipper right behind it.
×
×
  • Create New...