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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    @John1122The Euro control has your favorite storm track. Cutter, cutter, snow along the GC. In all seriousness, that is how cold the control was.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Regarding the 12z EPS: The best look is the system on the 26th which follows. The 12z EPS definitely leave room to the NW to trend for the 22nd/23rd. I really want to see how this trends as modeling is able to sort through the depth and intensity of the incoming cold air mass. The lion's share of the cold appears to be coming after the 26th. I would expect a storm to rid that incoming boundary.
  3. Carvers Gap
    It might be a tic northwest on second look, but was basically the same run as 0z. Of interest, it does have a mean slp over New Orleans on the 22nd. Get a low placement there, and someone in the forum area is getting frozen precip, even if it comes on NNE track
  4. Carvers Gap
    Digging a little deeper, I am not sure how the mean is that far SE on the EPS as there are plenty of cutters for slp placement. However, the mean is further SE than 0z. But really the EPS is a great looking run in terms of multiple storms and a great track.
  5. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, the ensemble mean on the 12z EPS is not a cutter. In fact, it is so suppressed, it would rob most of the valley of any moisture at all. Good spot.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Honestly, there is part of me that hopes we have enough SER so my pipes don't bust. If that EPO is that strong, it is going to send some super cold air southward. Man, this really reminds me of the Memphis ice storm - I know I keep saying it, but looks like 2.0.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I think modeling is just now sensing the cold. The last run, suppression was the issue. This run it is cutters. Right now, we just have to wait and see where that boundary sets up. You can really see modeling(even the Euro), with two different pieces of energy(for the same system) on the operational. One cuts, the other goes down low. A couple of days ago, the GFS didn't even have it cold. I think ensembles and operationals are just now getting this in their wheelhouse. I will roll the dice and take my chances with this upcoming pattern.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Agree. And no way modeling has those details worked out right now. Big storms. Big cold. I think the primary track is through the TN valley. I think another (low road) track will also exist - probably second or third storm. I will try to dig through the ensembles in a few. With that much cold around(and that Alaskan block), a lot is on the table if the timing is right.
  9. Carvers Gap
    No doubt. This is gonna be the EPO's show(or Alaskan block) fairly soon I think. The delivery mechanism to send the PV southward is there.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Incredibly cold 12z operational GFS run. When you see it, w/ a warm bias, flip cold...time to take notice.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Medium and LR ensembles for the GEFS and GEPS looks outstanding. If we don't score w/ the first storm Sun/Mon, the one after is also a legit threat. The EPS is cutting through middle TN. That should set the boundary for the second storm. We will know in a few.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC is a great setup. Storm one sets the boundary, and storm two rides it. No idea if that is going to be the outcome, but it is nice to see some chances showing up on modeling. It sure beats multiple shades of red.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I like where this is heading. What we want is right on the boundary per the 12z CMC. I think we will see some bouts of bitter cold. That said, the front end of the cold outbreak or as it is retreating is the sweet spot.
  14. Carvers Gap
    But the 12z CMC does have a surprise....a little trick on Tropical Tidbits for the CMC - toggle over "MSLP and Precip" and not the frozen. You will be able to see the rest of the run quicker. Hint -> It's Miller time.
  15. Carvers Gap
    At162, it looks like the CMC splits the energy. Half goes through west TN, and the other half heads for the Piedmont. This is a similar conundrum that we have seen all winter. Modeling wants to cut, but also hints at inland runner potential. Ensembles will have to sort this out. Interesting for sure.
  16. Carvers Gap
    It is going to be interesting to see where this CMC run goes. At 126 it has a low along the southern TX coast and has not cut.
  17. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, the 12z ICON is an excellent look for E TN. The 12z GFS is back to a cutter and cold front passage.
  18. Carvers Gap
    For the first time in a while, I really don't have a ton of changes to my comments from yesterday evening. The medium and long range look cold....and stormy. The storm Sun/Mon is now depicted on both the 0z Euro/6z GFS to pass to our southeast. In fact, suppression is the concern in my mind today. We need that storm to turn NE and crank. For now, it is a trackable system for the mountains, SE KY, SW VA, W NC, and maybe even NE TN if trends continue to improve. I think we are looking at a legit possibility of very cold air dropping into the Plains and/or the Great Lakes after the 26th. Once there, the flow from the -EPO is going to try to send it SE. The SER will fight it, but this is a strong cold shot. This is the EPO's baby for the foreseeable future. There are continuing signs the NAO may try to fire, but as anyone knows who has been following this for some time, a -NAO is very hard to predict with accuracy at LR. What happens after the 31st? Well, just go look at the MJO plots this morning, and you tell me. 75% of them want to take the MJO into phase 3. Some loop it back into background phase 2/3 again. American modeling likes the warm tour. Plots are all over the place. As for which model is winning. IDK. I think we need to pay very close attention to the GFS and its trends. Shock. Why? If it goes colder during the next 48-72 hours, that tells us very cold temps are possibly about to enter the pattern in the medium and LR. It has had a very warm bias this winter....until it doesn't. And when that model switches cold, it is worth noting. I have watched it get colder over the past 24 hours, and will be very interested in where it goes now. The GEPS/CFSv2 have been quite good re: this increasingly likely pattern change. The 0z EPS, 0z GEPS, 6z GEFS, and 0z/6z CFSv2 are quite cold in the LR. Storm tracks. We haven't been able to talk about this winter very often. Spitballing and speculation. I think there is a likely chance that the primary track will shift from the lows cutting along the Ohio River Valley to cutting through the TN Valley, especially eastern valley. That brings middle and western areas of the forum area into play. However, I do think a possible secondary track will also be in play which is an inland runner track which helps E TN. I thought this was an interesting quote from Larry Cosgrove on Saturday: At some point, the drift toward a positive ENSO signature could shift the larger storms farther south. That would eradicate the frequent calls for the GFS model suite to pop up a ridge in Florida, which has not happened often anyway due the unstable nature of the global sea surface temperature anomaly regime. Anyway, lots of speculation in that post. Don't take it as fact, but more of putting hypotheticals out there to look at.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Good overnight trends for next weekend. Good overnight trends for cold returning.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The big change w/ the 18z GEFS is that it no longer is feeding back as much over the Four Corners d10+. The retrograde is the PV moving from the Great Lakes Region into the central Canadian Prairies - BIG difference. Let's hope that is just the beginning of good trends.
  21. Carvers Gap
    If this verifies(sign the waiver), that is a pretty huge pattern reversal...........
  22. Carvers Gap
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS has (so far) followed the operational's lead. A piece of the PV is now in the southern Canadian prairies at d10.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS has a lot of similarities to the 12z CFSv2.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Definite cold bias for sure. However, it has not been that cold in a while. That, in conjunction with ensembles trending colder, is of some interest.
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