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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS has yet a third system around the 30th which is a really good look as the boundary shout be set on both the GFS and CMC at 12z..
  2. Carvers Gap
    Let's see where the Euro goes. There is a growing possibility for a weak Mller A w/ system one and WAA w/ the second system if the Candadian at noon and overnight run of the Euro are correct.
  3. Carvers Gap
    You can definitely tell the CMC is feeling the cold air mess pressing southward. The first system takes the low road as the 0z Euro did and the second system tries to cut but ends up sliding across KY and traps cold air over E TN in the valleys.
  4. Carvers Gap
    While the 12z GFS is still cutter city, it is worth noting that the 12z CMC has not one(but two) ice events for E TN north of I-40. There is wrap around snow with each system.
  5. Carvers Gap
    And I think the next couple of systems after that will also need to be watched as we head into the first week of Feb. Then we have possibly a two week warmup and more cold to end Feb and begin March. This is a similar cold/warm pattern to the past three months in terms of frequency although the setup is much different. With Nino starting to potentially flex and shortening wavelengths, there is a lot of flux in trying to find winter window during the next 6-8 weeks. Modeling is all over the place after the first week of Feb. I will say LR modeling has been decent for this current pattern shakeup.
  6. Carvers Gap
    It is worth noting that the 6z GFS was quite cold for that run.
  7. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, the 6zGFS has another system late in its run as well. So, modeling is beginning to "see" the potential for winter weather.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Both the 6z GFS and 0z Euro have good passes for the system on the 25th/26th - Miller A. The 0z Euro actually takes the low road for the system on the 22nd/23rd. Not sure that will verify, but that system is still on the table as well.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Sum of the 46d run of the Euro Weeklies....temps seasonal to BN(BN after the 23rd) and precip AN. We take that combo and run with it if it verifies.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Man, the Euro Weeklies control -NAO...wow.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies are pretty awesome.
  12. Carvers Gap
    These are the 12z d10-15 global ensemble temp anomaly maps.
  13. Carvers Gap
    By mechanism, to clarify, I mean a -EPO. Also, there are echoes of a -NAO on many runs and ensemble runs from time to time. It is on the EPS control big time. If we manage a -EPO and -NAO, that is a nice winter couplet. Honestly, that is the kind of couplet where we would be ready for spring after that matures.
  14. Carvers Gap
    There is a fine line between cutters to St Louis, and cold that strong going all the way to Cuba. Those are cold ensembles. The mechanism is there to deliver very cold air into the Lower 48.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the pattern is honking for that kind of setup.
  16. Carvers Gap
    And that isn't the colder model in that timeframe..............
  17. Carvers Gap
    For kicks and giggles....this is where it heads to about 100 hours after the map above. It is colder here prior to this snapshot. I just wanted to show this as North America is just frigid in this run. Impressive for a model which has been known for a slight warm bias in this range.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS is really a great run. This is my favorite.
  19. Carvers Gap
    @John1122The Euro control has your favorite storm track. Cutter, cutter, snow along the GC. In all seriousness, that is how cold the control was.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Regarding the 12z EPS: The best look is the system on the 26th which follows. The 12z EPS definitely leave room to the NW to trend for the 22nd/23rd. I really want to see how this trends as modeling is able to sort through the depth and intensity of the incoming cold air mass. The lion's share of the cold appears to be coming after the 26th. I would expect a storm to rid that incoming boundary.
  21. Carvers Gap
    It might be a tic northwest on second look, but was basically the same run as 0z. Of interest, it does have a mean slp over New Orleans on the 22nd. Get a low placement there, and someone in the forum area is getting frozen precip, even if it comes on NNE track
  22. Carvers Gap
    Digging a little deeper, I am not sure how the mean is that far SE on the EPS as there are plenty of cutters for slp placement. However, the mean is further SE than 0z. But really the EPS is a great looking run in terms of multiple storms and a great track.
  23. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, the ensemble mean on the 12z EPS is not a cutter. In fact, it is so suppressed, it would rob most of the valley of any moisture at all. Good spot.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Honestly, there is part of me that hopes we have enough SER so my pipes don't bust. If that EPO is that strong, it is going to send some super cold air southward. Man, this really reminds me of the Memphis ice storm - I know I keep saying it, but looks like 2.0.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I think modeling is just now sensing the cold. The last run, suppression was the issue. This run it is cutters. Right now, we just have to wait and see where that boundary sets up. You can really see modeling(even the Euro), with two different pieces of energy(for the same system) on the operational. One cuts, the other goes down low. A couple of days ago, the GFS didn't even have it cold. I think ensembles and operationals are just now getting this in their wheelhouse. I will roll the dice and take my chances with this upcoming pattern.
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