Carvers Gap

Did you have to make a new account? You have been on the forum for a while, right?

Sending an active STJ into an NAO block could get wild during January. It is probably feed back as the GFS is just chocked full of it, but that look has precedent.

Definitely a warm trend between say Jan 4-8. The pattern change to an eastern trough still looks good by Jan8-10th. Modeling could easily be missing a cold front in that range. Still, things look reasonably on track. Dec29-Jan10 looks like a transition time frame where the ridge retrogrades into the West. Jan 10 looks like a new pattern w/ an EPO ridge in the West. It has taken a while for the dust to settle, but that is where I "think" we are heading.

I had not noticed that, but whoa! See, I think middle and west Tenn have to really guard against this. This has been a really common feature in past winters. These cold fronts head to Texas(there you go @Daniel Boone) and the front gets hung-up over our forum area.

I was 50/50 on going to the MCB. I ended up staying in Kingsport. I have a kiddo who plays in the band for the good guys which is why I wanted it to be warm. They are gonna freeze their tails off! I about froze at the Vandy game. Thankfully, they are young and good at what they do!!! I get to make the midnight run to Knoxville tonight for pickup! I do love it, though. I should be here for the 0z runs. Haha. I slept-in a bit this morning - by my standards. Then I went running, and pretty much froze. Stopped at four miles and had enough of the wind chill. As for modeling. I think they jumped the gun just a hair and are correcting. It is more than common for models to be about a week ahead of the actual pattern change. Overall, the BIG event is Jan 8-9 when the EPO ridge goes up. I still see that, and it looks like it is moving forward with time. Also, models lose things in the 5-7 day range...so there is that. I still very much like where we are headed. VERY MUCH. Honestly, I like reading what you all post. So, sometimes I just back down my volume a bit which can be a bit much. Our daily 12z GFS "this ain't gonna happen" post -> but if it did -> The Day After Tomorrow.

Fun story, before I read Holston's posts on this...my family just called it the Twilight Zone. That area always has the worst weather - thunderstorms (especially out of the northwest), snow showers, wind, etc. I have traveled that section of road for forty years. Same deal for that long. Again, Alpine, Wy, has a very similar deal as does an area just north of Jackson(snow hole area). I think that place is Moran.

For an industrial plant to cause this, it would take something like a massive settlement pond from a paper plant to cause the life and the moisture - like lake effect. There is nothing to the northwest of Gray that fits that bill - not even a lake. That little snow line is really similar to the gap in the mountains west of Knoxville which allows Knoxville to get more snow...not quite the same setup, but similar. FWIW...BAE and Eastman are due north....and they would actually deter dendrite formation - you can trust me on that one! Hahah. Those plants affect weather, but I have never seen those plants add snow to anyone's back yard. Lots There is a notch in Bays Mountain near Laurel Run park. There is another notch near Baileyton. Wind cuts through those places and also to the east where the mountain range terminates at the radio towers. Those wind flows converge back near Gray when NW winds run perpendicular to Bays. I think the orographic lift between the three area then combines to create convergence in the lee of Bays. Think of a sports car cutting through air in a wind tunnel. Air goes around each side and then over the top. It converges again behind the car. I think that is what happens. That band has been there a long time. @Holston_River_Rambler, I agree. a small glass manufacturer won't cause that. That industrial park over there is pretty much defunct. I don't even really count that as an industrial plant - very small w/ maybe one stack. If that line of thinking was used for Eastman, there should be a HUGE snow belt downwind from it. Hahah. It is 100% orographic life along w/ those gaps in the mountain. Your last graphic there is right on the money w/ ONP. There is another one of these in Alpine, Wy. Where there is a break in the mountain, these little bands set up. I used to live on Boone Lake and would drive to Kingsport when younger(every morning). I drove through that band so many times. Again, you all have done a great job with this. That area is just one of strong convergence. Even during summer thunderstorms...same. Always a lot of convergence there.

Out of Bristol.

I am on a roll this morning. I absolutely hate agendas. This came from a local met, and I am embarrassed for this person. "Possibly aided by an industrial plant in Hawkins Co." That just burns my biscuits. I have news for folks not from this area...we certainly have lots of industrial plants in Kingsport, and they do affect the weather. But there ain't jack crap upstream from that snow band. It is orographic lift from Bays Mountain which sets up in the lee of the mountain. We have studied and documented it here. I don't understand how a local met hasn't seen this about 1000x time already - and this person should know!!! 2" in Gray reported on the ground

Man, the GEFS ensemble and deterministic after d8 are waaaaay out there on an island. The 18z GEFS going the deterministic run. The 18z GEFS ensemble has no support from any other ensemble run. The 18z AIGFS(which JB hates) is truly an awesome pattern by the end of its run. edit: Some halfway support from the 18z AIFS Euro. But the AIFS Euro looks pretty good. I think the cold will be centered back a bit further west than early December which is probably not a bad thing.

I also think the 8th is starting to be a trackable window. No guarantees, but it is showing up across modeling and at 500 on ensembles. With the NAO block likely in place, it is certainly a realistic option.

Kind of a minor event possible on NYD from the Plateau into SE KY, SW VA, and border areas of NE TN. Maybe we can cook something up per the 18z RGEM. I don't think anything more than a dusting or snow showers, but we have seen these trend south at the very last minute - as in the radar is the only thing that verified this far south.

The 18z GFS definitely trying to get in on the action. It has a storm which cuts into the forum area, but still manages to stay south. The good thing? It is the GFS at 10 days. The great thing? Good storm track.

I think the dry conditions(outright drought) in some areas of the forum is worth a continuing discussion. The southern edge of our forum is really dry as is west Tenn/eastern Arkansas. The southern Apps, as is typical w/ La Nina, are BN for rainfall. MBY is normal which has not been a usual occurrence of late. Thankfully, I think as we trend towards El Nino this summer....we will see a normal summer for temps, rain, and a reduced risk for endless summer next fall. If El Nino takes hold early enough, we could see cooler than normal temps later in spring.

That is a really good run of the Euro Weeklies(which are now dailies!). Ridge out west w/ it bridging across to Greenland. This is generally supported by some of the colder analogs. This pretty much holds throughout the run. Now, I have been doing this for a while....it likely won't hold for 6 weeks. The weeklies kind of just roll with week one and don't really move from that pattern sometimes. As @John1122notes, that storm track is a good one if it verifies. A word of caution: There has been no more fickle beast in wx modeling than LR modeling this winter. I wouldn't develop a long term attachment!!! I have 2x30day chunks at 500 posted. I mainly have done that, because each kind of tells a different story - both good for winter in the Tennessee Valley. I add two control images - you know I like the control. The temps map I think is a little bit less washed out, and it gets cold on that control run! The snow map is very similar to the ensemble, and that is likely a good sign. It is basically snow climatology, but I will take average vs none. But it gives us a good idea of the storm tracks possible - sliders, cutters, and inland runners. And if you need something to be concerned about if you like snow...I have that for you as well. Now, the good thing is that BN precip prob means it has been cold. I definitely am in the school of thought that we do a lot better when cold is in place. So, there is good and bad with this map. I don't have to explain the bad.

I use photobucket. @John1122mentioned a service he uses as well. I use photo bucket. I just upload the photo, and then grab a hosting link for it. Some hosting sites are free and some are maybe five bucks a month.

Also, ensembles are starting to honk that an Alaskan block is setting up. Now that....that would deliver cold.

The 12z AIFS Euro has three storms back-to-back-to-back. Easily the best suite of the year in terms of just synoptical setup.

5 day mean for the deterministic 12z Euro...~d6-11.

It is quiet in here to have such a good 12z suite. The 12z Euro looked loaded. Very nice run with plenty of chances and actual snow embedded in the run.

Winch chills here in Bristol are in the teens. Flurries are in the air. What a reversal in temps.

The 12z CMC has the EPO in place by Jan 6 with a nice pattern in place by the 8th - eastern trough.

I thought the 12z GFS was close with two storms on Jan 7 and Jan 11. Sure enough, the 12z CMC which doesn’t have a progressive bias…brought it. Good look. Big storm.

Really good example of a NA ridge retrograding at mid latitude w/ the HL ridge also doing the same. If that is stable, that is game on and very tough to break down. If it traps a piece of the TPV, even better for winter weather. Bottom up strat splits....do they affect the troposphere immediately? Good overall trends continuing on modeling overnight.

Met, how does that scoring system work? Blues, reds, yellow, points?