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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    MRX afternoon disco... By Sunday night, the Miller A low will be working its way up the coast of the Carolinas. On the backside, lingering low level moisture and northwest flow will bring light rain Sunday night through Monday morning. The highest elevations mainly above 3500 feet will see a changeover to light snow Sunday night as temps drop. Lower elevations will stay warm enough to keep rain as the precip type. Monday morning, any lingering precip will be light as the Miller A low moves well away from the region. By Monday afternoon, a trough digging into the Ohio Valley will enhance POPs, mainly north of I-40. As temps drop late Monday afternoon, a changeover to snow is likely from the Central Tennessee Valley, Upper Plateau counties, NE Tennessee and SW Virginia. Monday evening, strong northwest flow will move into the region behind the trough, enhancing snowfall for the higher elevations. Late Monday night snow will taper off as the 850 mb flow weakens. Snow totals have not changed since the last package. Light snow accumulations below half an inch will be possible for the lower elevations of NE Tennessee and SW Virginia, East Tennessee mountain foothills and Upper Cumberland Plateau counties. 1 to 3 inches likely for the higher elevations in SW Virginia. 3 to 5 inches possible in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains. The best terrain forcing will be in the NE Tennessee mountains where 850 mb winds are strongest (up to 40 knots), Monday late afternoon and evening.
  2. Carvers Gap
    If it is there at 18z, I am game for a higher elevation thread just to track it.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Good short range run at 12z for you all for sure. A dusting IMBY would be a bonus. I think for the NW facing foothills and mountain communities....streamer city.
  4. Carvers Gap
    6z NAM was not overly impressive at 12k resolution, but the finer resolution looked more realistic. The 6z RGEM looked better than it did at 0z. I do think higher elevations could do well relative to the system. One thing to note during Nino years is that systems can sometimes over perform. NW flow event people, this is a setup to keep an eye on. Short range models could be chasing a rabbit at this range, but MRX mentioning it is interesting.
  5. Carvers Gap
    MRX AM disco... Between 18z-21z Monday, model soundings support the snow levels dropping to below 2,000 either by outright temperature profiles or via wet bulb zero heights. Further cooling occurs into the evening and overnight hours as well. Time height and cross section analysis shows that deep upward omega extends well above the dendritic growth zone during the afternoon and evening hours, with the low level saturated layer extending to about -20C during that same time period as well. This will support decent snowfall rates during the afternoon and evening hours on Monday, for elevations above roughly 2,000 ft MSL. Both upper forcing and saturation through the DGZ begin to wane after 00z Tue. Offsetting that will be persistent northwest H85 flow along with increasing snow ratios as the thermal profiles continue to cool, and keeping snow showers going in the higher terrain into Tue morning. But by far, the most favorable period for heavier snowfall rates will be Mon afternoon into the early evening hours. Do have some light accumulations in the TN valley Mon and Mon night, as well as in the northern Cumberland plateau. Generally speaking, expect less than an inch of snow in those areas, 1-3" in the higher terrain of southwest Virginia, and perhaps 3-5" possible in the east TN mountains. Highest snowfall totals look like they may be in the mountains from Greene county northward to eastern Washington. This looks to be where the strongest forcing will be along with the longest duration of favorable temperature and moisture profiles. No plans for any headlines just yet as even this morning`s forecast is notably different than yesterday morning. But confidence in some low elevation snowfall is increasing. By shortly after daybreak Tuesday, showers wind down completely. Dry conditions then round out the week. We`ll be cool on Tue and Tue night, but temps moderate thereafter.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Sorry, those comments should have been two paragraphs on my part - meaning it snowed enough for sledding, and then they also towed the people who showed up.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I thought NC did pretty well. They had to close some place on the Blue Ridge Parkway(?) to sledding or it could be SNP. The mountains have been doing pretty well (Apps). Plateau is less for sure.
  8. Carvers Gap
    With that trajectory, definitely is correct. 14-15 we seemed to inexplicably get every NW flow event to hit us in town. I felt like I was living at 5,000'. LOL. But nah, that is normal. Thunder in the mountains....not too far off the mark yet again.
  9. Carvers Gap
    MRX afternoon disco... On the backside of the Miller A low, lingering low level moisture and northwest flow will bring light rain Sunday night through Monday morning. The highest elevations mainly above 3500 feet will see a changeover to light snow as temps drop. Lower elevations will stay warm enough to keep rain as the precip type. By Monday afternoon, a trough digging into the Ohio Valley will enhance POPs, mainly north of I-40. As temps drop late Monday afternoon, a changeover to snow or rain/snow mix is likely from the Central Tennessee Valley, Upper Plateau counties, NE Tennessee and SW Virginia. After sunset, POPs decrease as the trough passes the region. Monday night, northwest flow will continue the light snowfall for the higher elevations. Light snow accumulations below half an inch will be possible for the lower elevations of NE Tennessee and SW Virginia, East Tennessee mountain foothills and Upper Cumberland Plateau counties. The higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains and SW Virginia, above 3500 feet, may see 1 to 2 inches of accumulation.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Snow hole is over Kingsport....the NAM run is legit.
  11. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler the NAM has light the signal fire as you predicted.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The original Euro Weeklies are probably going to be closer to the mark than when the Weeklies flipped last week. Global ensembles are showing this now. And it makes me wonder if there isn't a hiccup right now in the week 3 range. And this was really seen across most modeling - CFSv2, CFS seasonal, CANSIPS, and GEFS ext. I don't think the crazy strong WAR every materialized nor the massive GoA trough. What has been constant is a HB block. What modeling did miss at 4-6 weeks was the massive chinook due to BN heights in and around the GoA(but thankfully that feature was not on steroids as shown at one time). That chinook and the jet extension in the Pac(likely related) are things which just aren't modeled well at range, but they also created many features on modeling which appear less likely to reach fruition in terms of reality. Now, the WAR signature on modeling does show-up sometimes(even if it doesn't verify) as a precursor to SSWs. Most likely, 500 maps (which are well below, vertically speaking, 10mb in the atmosphere) start to feel that strat warming, and the WAR shows up as a result. Again, that probably is an over-reaction on modeling, but it can also wreck 500 maps in the LR. Maybe we back into a decent pattern before the next MJO rotation hits, and we do it all over again.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, you all are in a great spot this winter. I am thrilled for the ski slopes. As a poster noted in the MA, the STJ is showing little sign of backing off. The current storm track during Jan-March is likely big money for you all. I do wonder if it(the never appearing eastern Pac drought) has something to do with how modeling is smoothing out features after d10. For example, a big storm cuts into the West coast. What is depicted as a trough is more like a deep storm which is transient. I could easily be wrong, but I just am not seeing evidence that the eastern Pac trough is hitting and holding.
  14. Carvers Gap
    And I am not going to be track this for two weeks(feel free to if you want...I won't judge!), but modeling is picking up on a storm signal around the 28th or 29th. You can see it every so slightly in the GEPS/GEFS individual snow maps at 12z. The actual low placement you can see pretty clearly on ensembles...but there is a bit of a signal now at the surface. As one of the guys mentioned in the MA thread, the actual shift at 500 may end-up only missing by about 5 days. As Boone noted and also LC, our cold maybe well come from successive storms which steadily press the bound ward eastward, and then tap that cold in eastern Canada. Again, that is a decent storm signal, and does work given the set-up which Boone mentioned above.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think Quebec is going to have to be our source for legit cold. I just can't tell if LR modeling is smoothing out things to the point it just "looks" like a trough his off the West coast(and it is actually a storm rotating through) or what. However, the pattern seems much more progressive than a locked in trough in the eastern Pac. That would be a very Nino pattern. I do think the MJO is an issue and modeling not handling it well. Also, that big block in central Canada is not easy to model. I think when we get to weather patterns which have so few analogs, that disrupts modeling as I am sure some of the physics (even if it doesn't use analogs in original programming) probably has a biased towards analogs as programing would likely somewhere have analogs at its foundation - either programmers and/or root programming and/or other influences I can't see. Even with long range seasonal modeling(Euro Weeklies) one can see the analog input w/ the snow input. It rarely outpaces seasonal norms.
  16. Carvers Gap
    @Daniel Boone, has the persistent trough on the west coast ever actually materialized. Maybe modeling is just seeing storms pinwheeling about the HB block? However, I keep seeing it on modeling in the d10+, and then it doesn't show up as we get closer. Is it feedback or modeling correcting the MJO as we get closer? I can't tell, but it is wrecking havoc on LR modeling. I think what we are actuating seeing are storms just rotating under the ridge in central Canada w/ AN heights between storms vs a static pattern where there is a trough or ridge parked somewhere and not moving.
  17. Carvers Gap
    From MRX this morning re: eastern areas: On Monday another strong upper low dives southeast out of Canada and across the upper midwest and Ohio valley regions. This will be something to watch as it results in very deep H5 heights and will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air with it along with some additional precipitation. Currently it appears it will be cold enough by late Mon afternoon that snowfall down to low elevations will be possible. The question is how far south this trough, and resulting precipitation, make it. Right now the consensus is for areas north of the I-40 corridor, especially in our VA counties and far northeast TN mountains, to see some precipitation Monday afternoon into Monday night. It`s likely this will be in the form of snow in the higher elevations, but plausible there could be some light accumulations into the low elevations as well. Details are fuzzy though, and confidence therefore not high. But it is certainly something to keep an eye on.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Euro has 3-9" along the Apps. That would be huge for the ski slopes, and fits with Nino climatology if true. Again, with marginal temps, anything is possible - including nothing.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The system this weekend has accumulating snows above ~2500' on both the CMC and the Euro. Both have a backside vortex that gets pulled into the surface low to the east of the Apps. Very plausible. Is it right? IDK. Like Fountain noted, there will be several more looks before models settle-in due to the semi-complicated look to model. If the energy in the front is slower or energy in the back is faster....bigger storm for somebody. As we noted earlier in the week, a storm that strong should have snow somewhere near it, and modeling is "seeing" that now in some regards...not so much the storm dynamics by the low diving in as it departs. Eastern areas and the mountains probably have the best chance of mood flakes. Well, the mountains could be much more.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The MJO is maybe less important right now as it is still early winter, but the MJO is for sure present on modeling. The big problem is the GoA low modeling in the medium range. Where it sets up is highly important. If we can get the ridge out of central Canada that will help displace it.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Satellite is the gold standard, but OLR works as well. Basically, if you see storms firing over the Indian Ocean and/or Indonesia...phases 4-6 will follow. I you see an MJO pulse make it to the dateline, that is basically phase 7-8-1. The Nino projected to warm near the dateline (think that is right) should enhance MJO phase 8. Big thing right now is I think modeling is struggling mightily with HL blocking, the potential for a strat split. Model chaos is impending IMHO.
  22. Carvers Gap
    We are seeing reversals across modeling today. I don’t know what to make of it other than modeling weakened the MJO in error
  23. Carvers Gap
    Pretty big changes to the operational 12z GFS. Those began at 0z or maybe earlier. Big PNA pops as the HB block retrogrades into NW Canada - that changes things for the better if real. Fingers crossed, that would mean that models are reverting to a better pattern. I suspect, the MJO is correcting into colder phases. It looks that way on the CPC site. If the MJO is correct, the MJO will progress back through warm phases yet again...but I doubt it gets caught on the warm side for more than a 10-12 days. The 12z GFS does have cold air back in the pattern after d10.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Power T is back as the avatar. Ensembles look workable as do extended ensembles d+14. Some of the "clutter" from the past few days has been removed. The Pacific trough is still too close to the West coast, but(and it is a big but)......the trough over the SE has begun to show around the 28th. Is it a mirage? 50/50 IDK. I do think cold is still lacking in a massive way, but just getting rid of the NA torch will be helpful. As for the boomer this weekend...man, it really wants to stall. Any time we see storms looping, re-forming, etc....good luck to modeling in figuring that out. Trends overnight have been eastward??? What is crazy is the lack of cold is probably producing that storm. There are few steering currents once it gets to our latitude. It is almost like a hurricane that gets tucked under big high and just sits. If it gets as strong as modeled, somebody in the East is getting a frozen mess even if temps are warm...the storm is modeled that strong. Modeling could be overdoing it. Today is a big day in terms of figuring out intensity. And yes, Holston, when the Nam finally sees it, it is gonna be like a bear which sees one of those big red coolers in a compact car. Havoc is gonna take place!
  25. Carvers Gap
    I still do wonder if there will be some rates driven frozen precip at higher elevations. If it gets that strong, there is a chance that it will.
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