87storms

Also, I heard the Euro is running.

I honestly don't care too much about when a storm thread is created, but obviously the issue is we're creating them at that "fork in the road" portion of the modeling when there's still time for significant adjustments. On one hand, it makes sense to separate out a storm threat if there's multiple threats, but with this being the only one I think it could have waited another day or so to avoid tracking debris clouds (which hopefully is not the case).

There's always the consolation prize of being close to the ocean.

0z will be telling.

I feel like it's the opposite. Normally, if it's in the 60s this time of year it's due to a southerly breeze/warm front bringing noticeably humid air, but today's milder weather was "I think" the result of downsloping/subsidence.

That's legit. I don't do road (I'm assuming that was pavement), just mtb, but I have hit up the C&O for about 10-15 miles before. Regardless, this was prime weather for that.

LWX is using the cutoff low verbiage, though it might not be the prototypical, meandering cutoff low that we see over the sw states... .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The long term begins with a strong upper level trough digging across the Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Recent model runs have the trough digging deeper and moving slower bringing impacts later in the weekend. Saturday will be mild with high temperatures in the 40s for most (30s at higher elevations) and clouds clearing in the afternoon, and breezy conditions throughout the day. As the trough approaches from the west, a cutoff low develops over the southeast and begins moving up the east coast. There is still a good bit of model uncertainty regarding the timing and placement of the cutoff low. Model guidance is trending slower with precipitation reaching the forecast area early Sunday and persisting throughout the day. As far a wintry precipitation, model guidance is showing temperatures staying above freezing east of the Blue Ridge. Those along and west of the Blue Ridge have the highest chances of seeing snow, but cold air aloft could infiltrate heavy precipitation bringing some snow to the rest of the area. With this event being five days away, it`s too early to tell in the way of wintry precipitation. We will continue to monitor this system as it gets closer. Current guidance shows the cutoff low exiting the area into the Atlantic by Monday afternoon, but it`s too early to say with the slower trend in guidance. Upper level ridging will build over the area in the wake of the area of low pressure brining warmer and more mild conditions.

That’s been the buzz word. I don’t think it’s phasing with the northern jet which you can see at h5. Why it’s not…I don’t know.

I can put down a pizza with the best of them. I gravitate towards NY style, but the occasional deep dish can be fun. I’m like 50/50 on Neapolitan style.

This system has been flip flopping enough to where there’s literally been no trend. I’ll tune in for 0z. Cutoff lows tend to move at their own speed.

How’s the cirrus forecast looking for Sunday?

How’s March looking?

Yea, looks like it came nw...maybe significantly. Edit: I should add I'm comparing it to 0z, not 6z.

Yea, though mild patterns aren't a great indication that it "will" snow lol. I hear ya, though. Mostly, I just need sunlight. I really don't care for extended cloudy/chilly/windy days...imo, they just make the season drag (especially if it's not balanced out by snowstorms).

I'm all in on this week. I biked yesterday and kinda sore, but might be spotty showers around tomorrow so I may need to cave and get another session in while the iron's hot.

Maybe it'll save us tracking time by being OTS. I'm kidding, but that should be the concern at this point lol. Who cares how cold it is if we're on the fringe anyway.

I think we should be tracking precip at this point. It’s not even a sure thing that we get anything from this system. We already know the uphill battle in temps given the 5 days of milder weather leading in. The 250mb map shows that there’s just little or no phasing with the northern stream, so how far north this goes is the real question. I’m hoping for precip bc I have the Catoctin’s at 1000ft+ on my doorstep…worst case, maybe I can drive up there for a hike and snow tv. Michaux would be tempting as well if the system gets that far north.

Today's weather has legendary potential. Already feels mild out there.

Lol. I'm actually more concerned about the cold chasing precip portion of this than the NW trend.

Looks like we're in the "let's hope for a NW trend" portion of the program.

Would have been fun having forums around for Feb 21, 1987. I know via the KU book (which I did purchase because snowstorms...) that was a bombogenesis type of event with fringe temps and ended up being an absolute paste job for the DMV. I'll never forget seeing the size of the flakes out my window (at night). It can happen (kinda like Commutageddon), but pretty uncommon.

Let's see what Lord Euro does. I agree, with a positive trough, this thing has OTS/washed out potential, but I wouldn't mind having something that's chase-able (something that's been lacking all season).

Interestingly, the ensembles are the opposite...at least to my eyes, it looks like GEFS shows a slightly quicker system. The wave isn't expected to reach the Pac NW until tomorrow, so might have another day of model madness.

Looks like the Euro is better with temps at 18z Saturday, but quicker to move the system out. Given how much of a drop in temps will be needed, I think we want more separation between these systems like the GFS is showing (even if it means a rain to snow setup).

That ridge in the SE on the 12z GFS is the stuff of legends. If you want snow, I suggest not even looking at that run and checking back at 18z...or in 2 weeks.