87storms

I see a winter storm warning and 6-12” lol. They’re probably on the line, but will clearly benefit from a more mature lp off the coast.

I went to Winchester a couple years ago...definitely a nice, little walkable downtown. If I remember correctly, everything was kinda consolidated into one long strip of shops and eats.

I'm thinking Boston.

If you were to show me this 500mb map and nothing else, I would assume a rainstorm: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2024010606&fh=8 We almost need an arctic airmass in place to overcome this type of mess at the upper levels. Winds near the surface are straight out of the southwest: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=mslp_pwat&runtime=2024010606&fh=7 I'm going to be content if I see an hour of snow out of this.

Once I looked at the jet stream, I figured it would cut. Trough goes negative too soon, I guess.

Personal weather station

15" is wild, but I could see them doing pretty well with this storm. Driving up some of those back roads is treacherous, though.

Looks like clouds are on our doorstep: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12 Re cad...

I need the 95 corridor to come through. If you guys are snowing to start, then it’s game on in Frederick.

We're on our way...sun angle has already started increasing. By the end of January, we'll gain 40 minutes of daylight.

I think it’s ultimately a product of not having sustained blocking. I wonder if this is the type of setup where the Catoctins help keep Hagerstown on the cold side…almost like a reverse cad lol. Maybe to a lesser degree the rolling hills southeast of Frederick help keep temps at bay. The latter might be wishful thinking.

Yea, I don’t mean the western ridges, but maybe the Frederick and Hagerstown valleys. I’m not even sure this is a typical cad setup.

The main idea all week has been for the high we’re seeing today to slide right off the coast and a return flow ahead of the next lp. There is the other high building over Canada, but that seems disconnected from the cold we’re seeing today (and too far north). Maybe the higher elevations can still win on cad, though.

This is yet another quick hitting cold snap. If it wasn't for this storm, we'd probably be heading into the 40s tomorrow. The h5 pattern is just too far north...really need a stout high to offset that. I certainly don't mind being in Frederick for this one, but it almost seems like Hagerstown is the spot to be.

I guess if there’s a chance for it to be right, this storm might be it, simply because of the fringe temps.

I found the nam to be generally unreliable for precip throughout the summer, so I just started using the gfs. It’s good for scoping out potential banding and I suppose temps, but that’s about it imo. I want it to be right, but I’m a veteran now…it’s hard to fool me lol.

I'm about a mile west of Rt 15. I'm going to count this as being west lol. Edit: I'm technically almost 2 miles nw of Rt. 15, so I'm definitely considering that meteorologically west.

Backloaded winter...March is gonna be epic.

Why is it the surface low is ideal, but the mid-levels are a mess? I don't feel like this is just a "it's just not cold enough" situation. To me, it seems like we just simply lack blocking due to a consistently messy Pacific and/or Atlantic...flip a coin.

This thread is becoming increasingly important...it's clear that we need to call a timeout and make some in game adjustments. It's go time.

The fun part is that it keeps trending worse. Best chance at this point is that either (a) the bleeding stops, and/or (2) cad is underdone. The upper air pattern is not ideal. Honestly, looking at it, I wouldn't even think we'd get snow from it, but luckily we have at least some residual cold air to work with. It'll be interesting to see how the storm ultimately plays out, but I'd be ok with it just simply starting as snow at this point east of the Blue Ridge.

finally getting some breaks in the clouds...barely. Those stratocumulus decks have been an absolute pill the last couple of weeks.

Maybe this is the anti-January 3, 2022 storm.

I think Frederick is going to need to rely on the rolling hills from Germantown to Urbana to act as a force shield from the milder air.

The busy northern stream has been an issue all year long. Just look at how cloudy it’s been for damn near 2 weeks now while I see clear skies often times into central VA and NC. The problem is we’ve generally been on the south side of that upper level flow. I really want to see a clipper show up. Not having those is a sign that we’re still not able to get that NS to dig far enough south, which is also evident from the lack of phasing with the SS.