87storms

Tell them the closer we get to the storm the less the uncertainty, and the curve on a graph takes on the look of a reciprocal function. And the overall happiness meter after each model run during the winter (theta = 90 degrees = 6z increments) is the output of the function y=sin(theta).

The 12z and 18z model suite might be the most important runs in the last 2 years.

That follow-up wave is becoming the main show. It's actually a hecs-level looking vort lol. If we can get that to trend south, then it's game on.

I gotta think areas closer to the M/D line are in good shape...I'm actually not really even that concerned up here (though I probably should be lol). I think it's the 95 corridor that is going to be the most challenging forecast. I grew up in Silver Spring, so I know exactly what that's all about.

LWX mentioned in their disco this morning what one of my concerns was and that's an onshore/return flow prior to the system arriving. That primary setup has been shown the last couple days with the hp moving off the mid-Atlantic. I think that's going to make it difficult for areas further east. Further west, we're gonna need to rely on CAD, but I could picture that being an issue, too, until you get to the higher elevations. And I'm not saying this because I think I'm right, but I agree with you that (at least through my hobbyist tracking) that this wasn't a clean setup. Hopefully, most of us can at least get some snow on the front end while the antecedent conditions allow for it...from there, roll the dice.

I add significant points to daytime snow.

It needs to cover grass or it’s a bust…it’s the law of the land with southern stream systems, though I make exceptions to rogue grass blades and sticks.

lol. I should have been more realistic and said if they lose by less than 20.

Yea, it looks like a classic overrunning event, but that 540 line is up there, no? Maybe I'm underestimating the amount of caa in place.

I actually didn't like the 18z run even with the output. The H5 setup looks sketchy, to say the least. Really gonna need the cad to do its thing...which is possible.

The 540 line is near Detroit this run...what could possibly go wrong.

Just snagged a hike at Weverton and up the AT a bit to around 1200’, which was a reminder that the Frederick Watershed really gets up there at 1600’ (at least for this area, it’s a pretty decent elevation).

There’s too many streaming services these days.

Just noticed that it’s on Peacock lol. How stupid is that.

If the Terps win tonight, 0z will cave to a snowier solution.

It’s gonna tell us, “0z will be telling.”

There’s still time for a hecs, but this is the type of system we should be able to score at least on the front end. We’re just not good at arctic air…and that’s really our best way to tame a southern stream system.

18z will be telling.

I’m starting to buy into the Pac being the biggest issue. It’s hard to get cold enough if there’s a constant stream of vorts moving through the northern tier of the country. During the shorter days, we want the coldest locations to have clear skies at night. I’m over-generalizing, but the lack of clippers is a hint that the northern stream is just too far north the last several years. That said, we do have near peak climo working for us this weekend.

What I don’t want is to see this start as mix/rain along 95. I think that could indicate temp issues upstairs even for places further to the nw.

12z gfs won’t be making new friends.

Yea, there's been a number of times where cad wasn't really showing up until closer to gametime. Seems like that's turning into the x-factor.

I’m not seeing much of a cad sig. Seems like there’s a southerly wind component even near the surface. I’m assuming it’s because the hp to the north just doesn’t have time to settle in. I wonder if this is another case of just not having enough blocking in place. With that said, maybe the dry air in place prior to the precip arriving will help with the first half of the storm.

Lol yea, it's kinda weird.

It's funny how storms just simply don't like to hit during the week. It took a reverse bust in Jan '00 to get a Tuesday MECS.