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87storms

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Everything posted by 87storms

  1. 87storms
    I've already accepted the fact that it's gonna snow next week.
  2. 87storms
    In hindsight, that was a helluva snow year lol...though Feb 87 is what my UN is named after. I remember that storm like it was yesterday. Just an outstanding, fluke snow blitz.
  3. 87storms
    We're pretty good at light precip events showing up within a few days. It happens with rain, but we just care more when it's snow lol. As long as there's sustained cold, the chances are up that we'll get something out of it. The issue is that we haven't really had sustained cold...so that's why I'm more interested in tracking that.
  4. 87storms
    I'm also not convinced the cold will blast through as depicted especially with the milder water temps. I could picture this turning into a wavy front kind of situation as it nears the coast.
  5. 87storms
    I haven't seen the scores, but I think the GFS has been generally good the last couple years. It hasn't really showed much in the way of any digital blue...which would be accurate. I actually use the GFS now up until within 24 hrs. Whether that's the correct way or not, I don't know, but I've seen the NAM miss enough times close to gametime that I find it more useful for showing potential convection than a broad brush of temps/precip.
  6. 87storms
    My mom said it snowed in Henderson, NV last night. Confirmed via pics. Looks like an inch or so. The cold is heading our way.
  7. 87storms
    I’m in.
  8. 87storms
    Yea, when looking at the 250mb chart it had a NS dominant vibe...almost looks like a miller b/hybrid type of setup. There's still a southern stream, but the trough is a little further east than I'd like. Still looks like the gulf is open for business, so maybe a minor event is still on the table.
  9. 87storms
    I've always been a hiphop head, but would also listen to alternative. Tool is one of those groups that I could vibe with and their music videos were wild.
  10. 87storms
    Yea, they actually mentioned the gravity waves in the LWX disco. I think what happens is we have leftover moisture from these storm systems and the combo of cooler air swinging through the next day and orographic lift causes these types of clouds. I haven't looked up the exact reasons, but it happens a lot in these setups.
  11. 87storms
    The wave cloud action is interesting, though... https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=02&length=12
  12. 87storms
    Clouds following a storm might be the most predictable weather to forecast around here, at least in the cooler months. The day will start out with a period of sun and then the trough moves east and you end up with a stratocumulus cloud deck…or something like that.
  13. 87storms
    We're a professional precipitation town...all we need is cold. I'm looking forward to next week's snow event.
  14. 87storms
    We didn’t have any big snows outside of Snowzilla in ‘16, but I do have a couple inches in my records from Feb 15 (looks like it stuck to all surfaces) and several snow showers/icing events. I was living in Bethesda at the time, so there might have been more further nw.
  15. 87storms
    I’m about ready to drive to Deep Creek to see 5 lol.
  16. 87storms
    The wind has generally been a bust here. Have had some breezy showers the last hour or so, but nothing to write home about. Maybe the winds pick up later.
  17. 87storms
    The wind has arrived.
  18. 87storms
    Still hardly any wind of note, but the milder air has made an appearance. It was chilly most of the day here.
  19. 87storms
    Yea we're en route to 2". Very efficient rain. The lack of wind is odd, though. I'm looking out my window and the trees are basically not moving lol. I was just out, too, and it wasn't really all that breezy. Maybe the valley is keeping that at bay for now.
  20. 87storms
    Barely any wind up here so far, but easily the best overall rain I’ve seen in a year. We’ve had a few decent events the last few months, but it seems like Frederick has consistently been on the lower end of areawide totals. This one is a true drought denter.
  21. 87storms
    Under absolutely no circumstances do we want to be in the bullseye at a week out. Forecasting has come a long way, but not that far. It's also a logical flaw to assume that a storm will all of a sudden stop trending once it bullseyes our area. That line of thinking turned into a failure with the last storm, for most of the area. Track the cold and monitor vorts. Well, that's my strategy at least.
  22. 87storms
    Frederick is doing pretty decent with this system so far. ~0.5" areawide. Looks like a little less further east.
  23. 87storms
    https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24&dim=1
  24. 87storms
    Precip/waves aren’t our issue. We do that generally well. It’s either cold enough or it's not…simple as that. I’m all in on tracking blocking. Without that, it’s a struggle to even get a clipper.
  25. 87storms
    For whatever reason, the upper level flow has been subpar for nearly 2 years now. I don’t know a lot, but I’m able to tell a quality h5 pattern and I haven’t really seen one yet. I know the 540 thickness doesn’t need to be under us to snow if we have an infiltration of cold at the lower levels, but we can’t get a high pressure to stay locked in when we need it. Maybe next week will start a better trend.
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