87storms

Euro/Nam is a pretty good LR/SR combo. We've been doing well with QPF lately, too. The rest is TBD.

Works for me lol.

When you look at the whole setup, the potential is there. Got a vort swinging through with a low developing off the coast of the Carolinas. This isn't a nor'easter, but if one or both vorts are stronger and further south than modeled, then there's a path to victory (via several inches). Looks like a daytime event (mostly) and should be powdery. Both of those are part of my grading criteria. Funny seeing people talk about winter grades yesterday because I was randomly thinking about that during my drive yesterday. Winter gets a C+ so far. This event could get it solidly into the B category. Also, I mentioned this before, but the idea of getting those rainers to get out of the drought followed by snowfall always seemed like an ideal situation. Creeks and streams are flowing better than I've seen in the past year.

Whatever Cincinnati gets, we’ll get.

The purpose of this system is to recover the 1-2” lost via compaction and melting from the Monday storm.

Ngl, next week's temps look kind of appealing. I want the next storm to be legit. Not sure if that happens this year, but we have had some qpf producers (creeks are flowing nicely around here)...just gotta find the right timing.

Not much is gonna change less than 2 days before an event lol. Maybe we go from 1-2" to be squarely within 2-4". The last system trended well, but overall the models were pretty locked in on the stripe of snow being near dc to bmore...we just hit the top end of it, so hopefully we can do that again.

There seems to have been more room for coastal development with the last system. This time, the flow up top seems more progressive with the cold front basically plowing thru before next week’s moderating trend. I think the way to win is to be able to get the low to redevelop quicker and closer to the coast before it exits the stage.

Snow on snow is underrated. Even if it’s just a 1-2” deal, it can still look like a fresh snowstorm.

Definitely a premier sunset out this way...and noticeably chilly. Gonna be some slick spots on the roads.

Pump the brakes. I was making an analysis because it was getting quiet to prompt analysis...didn't once say "it won't snow". I said my expectations are of a light event. I could lie and say my expectations are for a nor'easter (but that's a want).

You're probably not wrong lol. I'm rooting for a moderate event...and a diggier vort.

It looks like a Norlun trough setup (Philly disco mentioned it)...maybe that's the path to victory.

I'm just saying as-is, the coastal on both the gfs/euro develops and heads practically due east. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pwat&runtime=2024011618&fh=69

GFS is basically an ots solution. Euro kind of is, too. CMC seems iffy with the low deepening that quickly. I think expectations of a light event is probably the move at this point.

We just need the low to ramp up quicker, but it’s a pretty good track on the ukie, too.

Just took a stroll…got a coating/stat padder from the snow shower. Back to snizzle now. Eyeballing between 4-5” here. Still powdery.

Legitimate moderate snow shower in progress. Very healthy flake size.

Definitely snow as there’s actual dendrites falling.

Looks like pixie dust has returned here. Visibility has gone down, so I don’t think it’s freezing mist. All it wants to do now in Frederick is snow.

Took my final stroll for the eve…kind of an icy snow (for lack of a better term). Moderate misty snowfall. Looked like around ~3” and counting.

Starting to get some yellows rolling through. It’s very Jan ‘00 outside…very much an Atlantic/misty type of snowfall.

Just got to baker park. Prob about 2” total here so far if I had a snowboard. Roads are mostly covered and getting slick. Starting to accumulate very well now.

Yea, I've been eyeing a 10pm stroll around the 'hood...I think that's when things will kick into gear around here.

You can see the system slowly lifting north on satellite: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12&dim=1