87storms

Just got a prolonged basketball sesh in before the wall of rain arrives. Light wind/humid...the hoopers understand.

Gfs basically punts December, but that end of month setup is intriguing. We’re due for a NYE snowstorm.

I was thinking the other day how, at least east of the mountains, we tend to snow 2-3 times in an ideal window of opportunity. It’s no different than in any season when we get into an AN or BN pattern for a couple weeks. We’re not very good at wall to wall winters with the exception of the 2013-2015 legends. Also agree re the Atlantic, which played into my snowfall prediction. It was a problem last year as well and may take some more time to become favorable.

It’s either another storm trending east or because the Frederick water table is low.

So how’s spring training and the cherry blossoms looking?

It doesn’t seem any colder than last year so far, but the pattern does seem like it’s getting more active, which obviously increases the odds of timing.

Jan 30, 2010 was a sneak attack. It was forecast to be further south, but the northern edge ended up producing several inches. The 2nd storm in Feb 2010, aka the bowling ball vort, made this area look like Siberia.

I don't like the trajectory of that vort at all. We need it digging further west imo. Looks like nothing more than a nw flow/snow shower-y type of system. On the bright side, it appears we may be heading towards a pattern that produces signficant storms that are more spaced out instead of the constant barrage of vorts riding the northern US that typically bring nothing more than clouds and a breeze.

The fun part is days start getting longer in less than 2 weeks.

Looks like we’re relying on that trailing vort. The initial coastal is a rainer, albeit a beneficial one.

CMC rainfall totals are wild. Drought buster stuff.

I’m not as concerned about the break between hecs because we have had some long breaks. I know dc didn’t do great with the superstorm, so that was more like an 87 to 96 break. I think the big issue right now is our lack of being able to get a snowfall from start to finish…even a minor one. It’s just a battle lately. I mentioned this in the LR thread, but it also seems like the cold air from Canada is arriving more so in pockets than a broad banana high type of scenario, which I’m assuming is either due to lack of blocking or a less than ideal pacific (causing downstream impacts to the nao). I’m sure a warmer Atlantic isn’t helping either, especially with coastals. I guess spring will bring some interesting analysis about this winter, for better or worse lol.

Yea, the last thing that area needs in a down economy is for two pro sports teams to relocate. I don't really venture down there too often, but when I do it's nice that it's in a centralized location.

Yea, it clearly shows that being on the lee side of some of the locally higher ridges can shave off some annual precip totals.

Moving the Caps and the Wiz to NoVa is wild.

The rain shadow effect is prob somewhat exaggerated, but the Catoctins (while small) do rise sharply (so sharply that mountain biking national races have been held there). It’s an impressive little mountain chain. I drove through Gambrill today and there’s still snow up at the top and absolutely nothing at the bottom. It’s pretty wild. Obviously, the last snow was mostly due to elevation and likely not so much from upslope, but downsloping effects can be seen all year long as snow showers and tstorms sometimes fade as they sag south from the northwest…it’s a limited effect, but not non-existent imo.

And now we’ve transitioned to chasing clippers.

It had to start first. Well, it started everywhere except downtown Frederick and southwest along the other precip shadow locations.

Yea, but what's seasonable now? Our best setups for a start to finish snowfall is when we have a sprawling cold high to the north/west or a residual arctic high/cad setup. We're seeing high pressures to the north, but they're quick hitters. I guess we need sustained blocking (ie, sustained radiational cooling) up top to allow Canada to get cold enough. It makes sense that a less than ideal Pacific/PNA would make that more challenging than in decades past.

Is this the panic room? lol One thing I've noticed looking at some of the maps (like that nor'easter) is the cold air is occurring more so in "pockets" as opposed to long-drawn out cold snaps. It certainly makes it more difficult to time a storm and it probably allows for more of those inland tracks as well. Another thing I've noticed is that we haven't really had a bitter cold snap yet. It's still early for that, but even in the heart of winter we usually need an arctic high (for a flush hit snowfall).

Yea, but that also means we're 50% closer "digitally" to spring training and March Madness. I honestly only really consider winter here to be January and February. Any snow outside of that timeline is a gift.

The difference between 600’ elevation at the base of the Frederick Watershed and at the top is astonishing. Literally goes from nothing to near 3” in like 2 miles. Snow stuck to everything up here except the main road.

I actually can see the snow on top of Gambrill from my place, so that takes some of the sting off lol. They must have been cold enough to snow up there even with the lighter rates. I may need to take a detour through there this morning.

Yea, we’re in a little valley here...kinda like Hagerstown. I remember seeing an average snowfall map years ago showing some parts of upper Moco averaging more than downtown Frederick, which makes some sense. My elevation is only 300’, but within 10-15 minutes I’m at 1500’. Meanwhile, Damascus approaches 800’. The little snow maxes that show up in Frederick are typically over Catoctin.

Looks like there’s not even a coating here lol. I’m starting to think Frederick might actually be worse at precip/snow than some of the spots to the south and East due to the rain shadow/valley effect.