87storms

Our winters are now only two months long, so we still have time.

Doug K nailed last year’s snowfall forecast, though it would be kinda funny if he’s way off this winter.

Yea, and often times when I view the satellite imagery, it seems like there's an endless stream of clouds through the upper Midwest to northeast. I don't think I'd like that very much. I could see myself retiring in New England, but probably only when my basketball days and maybe even mountain biking days are over, though the idea of summer biking up there and not having to chase a nor'easter is intriguing.

There is some truth to us being generally horrendous at December snow, though I think the biggest concern is whether locations north and west of the cities can at least score. I went ham in 2013-2015 wrt to taking pics and vids of just about every single winter event and even in 2013/14 (a top shelf, Buffalo Trace Distillery-level winter), the first significant event was on December 8 (and I had to drive to Germantown for the goods). For 2014/15, I only have a minor jeep topper on Nov 26 and really nothing until January (which is when that winter started poppin'). For the dirt old folks (which I'm starting to inch towards lol), I think we have some selective memory bias about December events because they stand out. With that said, I don't think we want to go through December mild...I can't see that as a very good indicator of a "wall to wall" winter, though it probably doesn't mean anything in regards to whether we end up above average in snowfall since January and February are by far our most productive months. Personally, I like having a 2-3 month long winter. I do not like cold and dry/windy, though I understand the rationale behind seeking that type of pattern for increased snow chances.

It was pretty good in Frederick, too. Kinda unexpected.

It still seems like we’re in a pseudo/residual La Niña until the actual El Niño effects ramp up.

We goin’ sizzler

Sun is out now, an unusual occurrence this week. Temps are climbing into the adequate range as well. Approval stamped.

Sneaky clouds across central md to start the day. Looks like they’ll lift out by noon, per satellite loop. Hoping to get some sun/milder temps in today.

...we have plenty of time to track digital 3-5" snowstorms that reduce to scattered, non-accumulating snow showers as they traverse the rolling hills of Appalachia.

Just a reminder that it's still November.

This weather sucks. Looking forward to tomorrow's forecast.

2013/14 and 14/15 were each 4 month long winters, minimum. This year is giving off average vibes…which would still be a significant improvement over last year.

I can confirm it is officially cold outside. Not polar vortex cold, but cold…with occasional wind gusts.

This hobby is similar to watching sports. You want your team to win, but have zero control over the outcome. They also both have a competitive aspect to it that can magnify the noise. It might be why there’s a fair number of people on here who enjoy both sports and weather. The difference for me is that when I actually play sports (typically basketball), I can have at least some control over the outcome (it’s also a creative outlet for me). With the weather, you can’t really “play”…you’re relegated to just learning up on the topics and relying on models/data in order to not only become a better forecaster, but to seek a desired outcome. Fun hobby, but it takes patience…and probably too much sometimes. Personally, while I enjoy the analytical part, the most fruitful part of this hobby is when the weather is in real-time. How’s that for deep thinking? Lol

This season is being portrayed as a boom or bust year. The average is usually unlikely to occur because of how large of a standard deviation we have wrt snowfall, though this year I actually could see us being around that average. It’s just kinda hard to believe we go from basically getting skunked last year to an epic season this year. However, weather is very much an odds game and the odds seem to favor the latter for now. With that said, we should have a better idea by March.

The wizards and commanders are kinda like a -pdo/+nao combo…with a nw wind and some wildfire smoke mixed in.

I’ve got my Elijah Craig (underrated, cheap bourbon imo) waiting for me at my cousin’s place. It’s nice being the only whisky drinker in that part of the fam lol.

Might have to sneak in a basketball sesh today because it looks like winter arrives this weekend.

I like this kinda stuff. The only thing I'm wondering is why the comparison would be done between two extremes instead of the most negative NAO vs a neutral NAO.

Great forecast by LWX...post-storm clouds are a thing here and seem to be under-forecast at times... Elsewhere, the main forecast challenge is the cloud cover forecast. Dry/cold advection is underway, but daytime mixing is also on the increase. Clouds are on the decrease in some locations in response to the dry advection, while other locations are seeing an uptick in cloud cover due to daytime mixing. Current thought is that a stratocumulus deck should develop across much of the area in response to mixing, leading to most cloudy skies this afternoon following some breaks of sunshine this morning. Getting peaks of sunshine today in Frederick, but it's been mostly cloudy for most of the day so far.

Very healthy line of showers moving through Frederick rn.

Yea, and the whole argument is so silly, too. Even if the warmer temps are temporary, it’s still going to have an impact on marginal snow towns like ours (on average). It ain’t rocket science lol. I’m just hoping we can get the typical 2-3 significant snowstorms.

True, but we haven't really been good at scoring minor events the last few years. This year could be a pretty good litmus test to see what we're really working with as far as whether we get clippers, how far south the storms track, how soon the changeover occurs, etc. Last year was too much of a dud to really take seriously.

Around an inch here. Probably the most efficient precip event as far as duration is concerned that I've seen all year here...at least since spring. Quite a bit of ponding on roads and some of the nearby fields.