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87storms

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Everything posted by 87storms

  1. 87storms
    Not the greatest SLP track...but it's cold leading in. Would be really cool to get a track underneath for a change, though we did score with some systems in 2015 this way. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pwat&runtime=2024122912&fh=192
  2. 87storms
    It's entering the west at a pretty high latitude, which is a thing sometimes, though looks like a snow to mix setup is possible with that first system.
  3. 87storms
    Only 10 days away, guys...we got this.
  4. 87storms
    The only problem with the hh gfs is that the hecs is happening in the middle of the week, which has proven to be nearly impossible.
  5. 87storms
    Yea, there’s no question about it, the teleconnections are primo. Saw a post online yesterday about the QBO (the concept) and it appears to be favorable as well. I haven’t dug into that topic much, but it seems like an important marker for cold air making it to the surface and/or at least for a better chance at the teleconnections you listed.
  6. 87storms
    Snowy periods are gonna continue to be fewer and farther between as long as the planet continues to warm. Unfortunately, only about 50% of the population understands this rudimentary concept.
  7. 87storms
    I heard we’ve been really good at long range threats the last couple of years, so I’m definitely in. I mean, it’s not like it’s gonna be in the 50s for a few days leading up to New Year’s.
  8. 87storms
    Got some rocky biking in over at the 'shed. Trail was mostly dry aside from standard winter, low sun angle slick spots.
  9. 87storms
    Might have something brewing late next week on the 12z GFS. Probably in a good place at this point.
  10. 87storms
    Damp/dreary stretch of weather on tap, it seems. Would be nice to see some sunshine today. It’s been elusive lately.
  11. 87storms
    None. It’s ok, I’ll use reverse psychology. It’s a secret snow weapon.
  12. 87storms
    We might not have a choice, but to accept a snowstorm during that time frame.
  13. 87storms
    TT has been struggling to load for me today. Probably a good thing.
  14. 87storms
    East flow doing its stratus deck thing today.
  15. 87storms
    I think it used to be.
  16. 87storms
    Agreed…were the clusters based off only those 18 cases? I took a machine learning class over the summer, hence why I’m interested in this stuff. I noticed there’s a couple of distinct clusters (assuming this was based off k-means, etc) with similar teleconnections. Also wondering if it would be better to adjust the snow total down to 4” to create a larger dataset.
  17. 87storms
    Yea I was just thinking I guess that’s not too bad. 4-6” is a healthy event and there’s probably quite a few more of those.
  18. 87storms
    Wow…only 16 in nearly 75 years during the coldest month of the year? Definitely less than I expected. I’d be curious how many some of the suburbs like Germantown to Columbia have had. Undoubtedly, a significant difference once you get 10-15 minutes west of the fall line.
  19. 87storms
    GFS lost the January 3rd system and looks more like the Euro now. We'll see how things pan out thereafter. Might take a few a days to reload the pattern after this next mild stretch, which lines up with the current ensembles and trough-y look by January 8ish.
  20. 87storms
    Whatever happens, it does look like a mild stretch leading into the pattern change…and I’m all in on it.
  21. 87storms
    Looks like a dusting here. Precip mostly skipped over.
  22. 87storms
    All the ops are good for at this range is to see “if” a pattern “could” support a storm. That’s about all I get from it.
  23. 87storms
    Would be nice if this was snow instead of ice...it's a thick cold out there rn.
  24. 87storms
    Definitely a bite in the air today.
  25. 87storms
    I recommend not looking at the 6z gfs. 12z is more important.
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