87storms

Think this one might come down to Barkley.

It's going to ramp up once that SER gets going. Sun angle season should help, too.

Most important game in Commanders history since last week. Think this one might come down to kicking.

Spring training, March Madness, and cherry blossoms. That is all.

Chance is right...monthly anomaly "averages" can be misleading. All it takes is one timely storm to overcome a less than ideal average height pattern and, of course, untimely shortwaves can ruin a good one. The challenge is that upcoming patterns are unlikely to turn out the way we want, so comparing something that might happen to something that already did, will add even more overthinking. I can see why looking at the large scale features (MJO, NAO, etc.) and placing bets on that would be a better game to play than just hoping for a proposed H5 pattern to deliver (since that's still a moving target beyond 7-10 days). I'm brainstorming...mostly just taking a break from doing my weekly status report lol.

Thick frost alert

Will need to see how things shake out on the models by the weekend.

Thought I’d get a break from tracking, but now the gfs is showing a 1040+ hp and a bowling ball ejecting east.

Winter has shown its hand. I will not be mountain biking or playing a whole lot of basketball outside and that’s ok. My body needs a break anyway…and snow is awesome. There’ll be breaks and pattern relaxation…we’re not Montana…but yea, we’re 2 months deep now and the base state has been “winter”.

It’s deep winter stuff out there. Looks like our warm up isn’t gonna be all that warm.

Our snowfall forecasts are in trouble.

Looks like a slow tracking period the next few days with some tracking ramping up this weekend for that late week potential.

When it's snowing in Buda and New Orleans, we've got ourselves a winter.

Yea, on the flip side, we’re capable of getting scraped by all of those scenarios lol. We’re not good at extreme weather…that’s just not our location…but otherwise we’re pretty versatile.

Just saw New Orleans is at 3-5" as well. I guess the next question is how much does the pattern relax after this arctic air intrusion. Can we winter it for another 2 months?

Yea, the term AI is loose…even ChatGPT is based off ml, but for forecast models the output is a forecast, not a snippet of Python.

Yea, it’s pretty interesting. Been trying to better understand the math behind svn’s and neural networks. Understanding the loss function and gradient descent are key pieces, but it’s a thick topic, that’s for sure. Anyhow, heard it might snow in New Orleans lol

Have had like 4 decent flurry/snow showers move thru this morning. I’ve noticed mby has had a few of those streamers roll off the Catoctin’s the last few years.

I think the “ai” in this case is more about utilizing ml (data driven vs physics), not so much using ChatGPT to write code.

The euro discussion I attended at ams mentioned ai as more of a hybrid solution, if memory holds (last week was a brain dump). I’d be curious to see how much overfitting would impact the models. Might result in more missed fluke events (just brainstorming).

Can’t blame them lol. There’s gonna be some cool pics coming out of there, assuming the snow delivers.

We might be getting too good at snow to avoid another week of tracking.

You ain’t lying. Was just down there last week. The food was legit. Went to bourbon st one night…it’s like an adult boardwalk lol. I enjoyed Sazerac, though honestly thought beignets were a bit overrated. Pretty impressive turnout for AMS…heard they broke an attendance record.

Aggressive flurry moving thru here rn

Yea, in hindsight, it did dominate on the thermals, but it also showed a jackpot qpf along the fall line during the Sunday 0z run. Not sure if that’s actually what happened…seems like the qpf stripe was closer to Parr’s and the Catoctin’s, though up until 0z it was painting higher qpf there as well. Not sure why it changed it up near gametime, but it goes to show how important it is to understand each model’s bias.