87storms

Few flakes flying around in Frederick. It’s cold outside.

A moderation sounds kinda nice right now tbh lol

I noticed this forum goes through a period of tracking rust early in the season where the general vibe is that it actually makes sense to track anything in that range. I'm not even sure we've ever tracked a storm successfully 10 days out. LWX couldn't even get the forecast for sun correct yesterday lol. I know it's different than tracking an actual storm system, but yea. However, I don't want anyone to get confused...I'm down for a snowstorm, but today is literally the first legitimately cold day we've had of the season. It's early.

I think those high pressures along with radiational cooling can become more impactful and lead to colder air building up north as the season goes on if the pattern stays on the chilly side. I used to wonder how pressures relate to surface temps and it’s not straightforward.

The mostly sunny forecast has been a bust so far, though I do see some breaks in the clouds to the west. Hoping to get at least an hour or two of sunshine here today. I did get a hoops sesh in earlier...chilly, but doable.

...though seeing digital snow early in the season is an improvement over the last couple of years.

And it's only 11 days out, too.

Latest gfs is interesting, but man…it’s still a challenge getting storms to form south of our lat or even a chipper. I know NS dominant patterns are a La Niña theme, but it’s been excessive the last couple years. That’s the trend I’m most interested in tracking.

Just assessed the outcome at the top of the Frederick Watershed (around 1500’ elevation, though there was accumulation midway up). They did very well…several inches.

I think the precip overperformed here. When I checked nearby reports last night, I saw 0.5"+ amounts. I thought yesterday would just be a passing snow shower, but there were some decent bands rotating from the north throughout the afternoon.

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Yea those roads can be dicey. Even when I had my jeep with all-terrains, I wasn’t always comfortable driving through there…especially when it gets foggy.

Was just wondering how things fared up there…haven’t made it up Hamburg Rd yet today. I did see some very wet flakes on my drive earlier, so not surprised it’s been snow up at the top.

This is definitely not a normal way to get precip here, with bands rotating down from PA lol. If this was January it would be a cold/blustery little snowstorm.

Yea, it’s a thing. You doing wolf and chimney rock trail? That’s a good loop.

Just took a little snow stroll…refreshing. The Friday/weekend rule is a force.

I joke around with the "snow magnet" stuff, but it kind of is one of those microclimate locations. I'm working remote today, so may venture up the Watershed soon to see how they've been doing.

Expectations exceeded here. Actually some stickage during the heavier rates.

Flurries here and foggy looking over the Catoctin's. You guys weren't kidding...it's gonna snow and there's simply nothing we can do about it.

Tbh, seeing snow around here in November is pretty common...I'd estimate every 2-3 years we'll get at least white rain. So I wouldn't be too surprised. It's the setup that seems a little unusual, but we've had an unusual year...so there's that.

The wind is definitely roaring here. Pretty impressive actually…to the point that I might need to bring in my balcony furniture.

Aggressive gust just now, too.

Aggressive downpour here.

That's certainly more believable than snow in late November from a system meandering over interior New England.

I've seen several inches on top of the Catoctins with basically nothing at the bottom, so I believe the result of that algorithm.