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87storms

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Everything posted by 87storms

  1. 87storms
    East flow doing its stratus deck thing today.
  2. 87storms
    I think it used to be.
  3. 87storms
    Agreed…were the clusters based off only those 18 cases? I took a machine learning class over the summer, hence why I’m interested in this stuff. I noticed there’s a couple of distinct clusters (assuming this was based off k-means, etc) with similar teleconnections. Also wondering if it would be better to adjust the snow total down to 4” to create a larger dataset.
  4. 87storms
    Yea I was just thinking I guess that’s not too bad. 4-6” is a healthy event and there’s probably quite a few more of those.
  5. 87storms
    Wow…only 16 in nearly 75 years during the coldest month of the year? Definitely less than I expected. I’d be curious how many some of the suburbs like Germantown to Columbia have had. Undoubtedly, a significant difference once you get 10-15 minutes west of the fall line.
  6. 87storms
    GFS lost the January 3rd system and looks more like the Euro now. We'll see how things pan out thereafter. Might take a few a days to reload the pattern after this next mild stretch, which lines up with the current ensembles and trough-y look by January 8ish.
  7. 87storms
    Whatever happens, it does look like a mild stretch leading into the pattern change…and I’m all in on it.
  8. 87storms
    Looks like a dusting here. Precip mostly skipped over.
  9. 87storms
    All the ops are good for at this range is to see “if” a pattern “could” support a storm. That’s about all I get from it.
  10. 87storms
    Would be nice if this was snow instead of ice...it's a thick cold out there rn.
  11. 87storms
    Definitely a bite in the air today.
  12. 87storms
    I recommend not looking at the 6z gfs. 12z is more important.
  13. 87storms
    Yea, you can't rely on surface maps this far out.
  14. 87storms
    Fantasy range, chaos and string theory aside, I thought the 0z euro and gfs Ops were starting to show hints of an ideal pattern in early Jan.
  15. 87storms
    An ideal winter are light events in December and March with a MECS+ and 2 SECS, in any order, in January/February.
  16. 87storms
    18z says “you will wait”.
  17. 87storms
    Kind of a nice day overall...wasn't as cloudy as I expected it to be post-storm/CAA. Had periodic sun throughout the day here.
  18. 87storms
    That's ok...daytime snow is where it's at.
  19. 87storms
    And no blade shall be visible. LIght snow is acceptable in December. In January, we up the ante.
  20. 87storms
    Today’s 12z run is gonna be the most important run since the winter solstice.
  21. 87storms
    We're generally much better at precip than cold. DCA averages over 8 inches of precip in the winter...if we had the temps on our side, we might actually get bored of snow lol.
  22. 87storms
    I’m not jealous.
  23. 87storms
    I'm jealous.
  24. 87storms
    Breaks in the clouds down in Central VA, so it's real real lol. Pivot might keep areas north/east socked into clouds, though. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=02&length=12
  25. 87storms
    This would be my 4th snow event this winter. We might be teeing up for a January MECS at this point.
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