I work with a former operational met in the aviation industry and his thoughts (right before me seeing the pbp here) are that we're dealing with a southern/colder euro vs northern/warmer gfs, but seems to lean towards a colder (given the time of year), more north solution (given that it's a west to east system, so it could lift further north than depicted). He reiterated it'll come down to the direction of the 850mb temp advection. If we were in the office, I'd try to get more details lol.
And just looked at the latest GFS. I sign.