87storms

One thing that's been slept on is the drought monitor. Surprised to see that it's still dry around here, so precip is a good thing... https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast

I never really look at these, but they're interesting. Seems like they include data beyond the "1.5 x IQR" threshold because some of those points seem like outliers. Also curious why the control follows the skew more so than the mean. Regardless, that timeframe does kinda line up with more favorable indices.

Definitely feels like there's a north wind out there. Pretty chilly. Come on, overrunning...throw the Gulf at us.

That's actually going to be wemby's stat line tonight against the wizards.

It’ll be cool to get a little stroll in tomorrow night. Kind of a weak storm up here for mid february standards but it’s nice to know I won’t have to monitor the correlation coefficient pinger line.

La Niña/downsloping ftl?

Your decision to relocate further south for the winter continues to look like a power move.

Always fun seeing totals trend lower up to gametime. Worst hobby ever? See you at 0z

Can only expect so much from a 1013 low that's headed out to sea. It is what it is... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2025021012&fh=42

We have the cold for tomorrow. For next weekend, we probably would need that wave to slow down. Note: I meant to add my other post to LR.

One thing is clear, you'll want to get out and enjoy the snow Wednesday, if possible, because rain is on its heels by overnight Thursday.

Nam and gfs seem on an island with the 0.5” precip line right on or near Frederick. The other models have it more towards dc and south. Regardless, looks like a 2-4” minor event is likely. Next interesting thing to track will be temps leading in.

DNA by Kendrick is in my hoops rotation. Classic track.

I typically don’t like any of the halftime show music. It’s almost always mainstream stuff that I’ve heard 100s of times already. Would rather just see an actual performance…or a puppy bowl.

Kendrick is killin’ it. Definitely more entertaining than the game

Maybe some Catoctin upslope

I will accept the fact that Tuesday's storm will require no more than the brush on my ice scraper. Congrats Fredericksburg.

Is it spring yet?

The possibility still exists that we might end up being exactly who we thought we were.

Yep, might be a close call next weekend and beyond. The cold air seems available, but whether we have the blocking or not might determine whether we're dealing with cutters and cold chasing precip or a coastal low with a beautiful, entrenched high pressure to the north.

Reel it in, Will.

Definitely a different setup between Tuesday and next weekend. Seems like the majority of the next couple of waves are overrunning while next weekend the trough pushes east and a more formidable surface low develops in the south. Hopefully it doesn't turn into a cold chasing precip situation, but the ingredients seem there for a more impactful storm somewhere in the east. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025020912&fh=174 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pwat&runtime=2025020912&fh=162

This is the one.

Not a very good run at all for DC north unless you're cool with a minor event (I'm kind of over those, but understand that others are happy with whatever falls). Precip output is mediocre and there's only a weak surface low off the coast of North Carolina.

Now we’re talkin