cbmclean

A cold Canada may or may not have any impact here. I mean I like seeing it just because I like the inherent idea of cold anywhere, but there have been winters where the cold stayed completely bottled up in there. I haven't seen any evidence of the MJO going into the cold phases. Both the GEFS and EPS seem to have it headed to the COD, which is certainly better than currently, but not particularly good.

Yikes that is stiff.

If the wind has freshened up, then that will mix the boundary layer at the surface which has been radiatively cooling.

Got down to 30.2 this morning, so at least I will have one light freeze on the books. Also the windshield was frosted over. Can you consider that frozen precipitation?

Wasn't there a guy here who lived in that far south corner. That map must make him physically ill.

How is that physically possible? I am down to 33 in eastern NC. Have the clouds already rolled in for you?

Well for the thought experiment it could go any way you want, but for more fun I would try to collate your choice with a plausible pattern. For example, for the 20" big dog, you could say that it might be one-off event in a highly amplified pattern therefore maybe there is some warm air around so completely plausible that the rest of the month is average or mild. The 10 2-inches would be indicative of a serious cold pattern without a lot of moisture in one individual storm and so on.

I would probably go with a nice 10" to get things started plus 5 2-inchers periodically the rest of the month to keep things fresh.

So hypothetical question for you guys, since I have nothing else to do down in my neck of the woods. Say that you have been guaranteed 20" of snow over the course of one month and you could choose how to distribute it? Would you take -1 big dog wtih 20" -2 nice 10" slams -4 respectable 5"' -10 2" nuggets or something else. Lengthy discussion of reasonings are welcome.

So on the low end they are expecting 91" of snow. Might even make Ji happy.

If you compare this pic from C.A.P.E with the same time stamp from Pivotal (posted by SteveRDU in the SE forum), you can really see the effect of the sites' different algorithms for snow accumulation. I live just slightly southwest of the "9.8" in eastern NC. WeatherBell shows me with zilch, Pivotal shows me with 7 inches. Even setting aside the long-lead clown map aspect of both of them without knowing anything else, I can tell you that WeatherBell is much more realistic (or rather less unrealistic). Makes me wonder how Pivotal could have such crappy algorithms or how they could be that different from each other.

Yes I misunderstood this caveat. I was under the impression that you had found that once the Pacific Doom Blob came to play it, always stayed long term.

Yeah, I'm a realist about my climo. Although I love snow, I will happily take mild/wet/cold/dry cycles as opposed to endless SER warmth. I could even hope for nice little- EPO cold snap

I was just about to make a funny post saying not to look at the 384 hour GFS if you didn't want to see another I40/85 N special but too late. One odd thing though C.A.P.E posted a map of the same model run at the same 384 hour time stamp but it was from WeatherBell. It had a much less of the good stuff south of 40/85. Wonder what the difference is.

Hey CR, can you lower the snow shields and raise the SE Ridge shields for a change?

I am infinitely happier having the EPS on my side and the GEFS on a bad island rather than the usual reverse situation, but I am having a hard time intellectually accepting the hope. I can't see the d10 - 15 EPS, but I haven't heard anyone mention a good NAO look so I am assuming it is so-so at best. PSU's research showed that the ONLY way out of this mess was NAO help, so without that I just can't see us climbing out of this hole. Nothing else was able to turn the trick. If the snow-happy 50's and 60's couldn't figure out a way to escape (other than with the NAO) I can't envision us pulling it off today. I will happily be wrong.

The thing I find least believable about the whole episode is the apparent foot of snow in December. Next you'll tel me the NAO was negative at that time.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/philadelphia-fans-boo-santa-claus/

So I was wondering, what was the story when they supposedly booed Santa Claus?

Fun fact: In his rookie year, Doug Pederson was QB for the Dolphins on the day that Don Shula passed George Halas for the record for most coaching victories. That was the year Dan Marino tore his Achilles and earlier that game Scott Mitchell had separated his shoulder. So I bet a lot of Dolphins fans have a soft spot for Doug.

Watch this be the time where the GEFS gets its revenge and crushes the EPS.

Whoops: neophyte mistake.

Well he mentioned the North Atlantic trough specifically, that was what I thought he was talking about.

How does that work to help the E Conus?

Down goes Wentz. Apparently the Pacific Doom Blob is so strong it's even affecting east cost football.