jm1220

Yup, wasn’t expecting that given how far SE the other models were. Good job by the Nam.

Trend is very clear. I'd be pretty stunned if much makes it north of Cape May. NHC is also insistent on bending it E once it reaches NC.

CMC also pretty far SE with the track and precip, if anything even further SE than the GFS. I know it's not a tropical model by any means but NAM definitely on its own. Maybe the heavy precip/storms currently near Tampa shows where this is going-SE as it pulls the center and therefore track.

Crazy NAM/GFS disagreement on this for something so close in. NAM has heavy rain making it well into PA and the Hudson Valley, GFS crushes it to where heavy rain doesn't make it north of the Delmarva. We should see fairly soon which is right-NAM develops a big blob of heavy rain into western NC, even east TN and north GA. GFS concentrates it onto the GA/Carolina coast and drags it east from there. NHC track is still pretty clear on it coming in near Panama City and bending NE to ENE out near Nags Head NC which is much more inline with the GFS.

Good luck to any model or met trying to forecast something 4-5 days out or more. Probably plenty of crazy last minute model shifts again as they try to sort out the dueling influences.

There was a small tree down on Round Swamp Rd near the Northern State when I drove by, and some larger branches down here and there. In my neighborhood, lots of twigs and small branches down. So around me, probably 40-45 mph gusts or so, maybe here and there over 50.

Pre-Sandy, Irene, Mar 2010 nor’easter. That 2.5 year period decimated any long standing trees there.

Given the wind reports on the coast it must’ve been howling in Long Beach. Surprised there aren’t more power outages down there it seems.

Doesn’t look terrible in my neighborhood. Lots of smaller branches down but nothing too bad. On my office’s street in Melville there’s a large branch down.

The best winds may be after the low passes from the west.

The low is going almost directly over us and it’s flying along. Hard to get prolific rain amounts when that’s the case. Anyway, pouring out and fairly gusty wind here in S Huntington. Stations have 1-1.2” of rain so far.

October has 20 more days, and a massive ridge in the last few days of the month can easily undo any coolness now. Average highs also come down pretty fast from here and even a day not that warm at the start of the month would be quite warm for Halloween. The leaves are also falling and turning colors because of how dry it’s been, not the temp necessarily.

Rumbles of thunder, storms just to my north. Rain would be extremely welcome.

91 at the closest station to me in S Huntington.

Maybe the location right on the water added a degree to temps and it stuck less? Or they’re just wrong? LOL Congrats up there. Reminds me of the late March event we had last year that was widespread 12”+ here. It’s finally wintry looking outside here which is good but the warmth aloft screwed it from what it should’ve been. 4-5” instead of 8”.

Sleet line is south of Staten Island, around New Brunswick area. Most of NYC is snow except Rockaways. Poster from the Bronx said almost an inch already.

I agree. It's making good progress NE, and HRRR/RAP are keeping it going for a while. By the time it gets to Boston may be a different story, but the same models have been bringing the enhancement back a little in SE MA. Snow coming down good after an initial brief period of sleet in NYC. Hopefully this is one where many of us shafted ones can win at least a little.

I'm on team "stuff circled below", but crazy how much this is a nowcast event with the ludicrous shifts within 24 hours. And then we have the next event under 48 hours out subject to the same shifts based on this event. Glad I'm not doing this for a living tonight. Lots of egg about to be splattered on someone's face.

Maybe wishful thinking but the last HRRR/RAP run got a bit more potent further north. The radar does look encouraging coming into this area at least. Hopefully the sleet stops advancing-the same models change it over to snow when it gets going around NYC. But 0.5-1 degree too cold at 850 and it's mostly pellets.

If anyone's going to score from this, I'd think your area would be it, and then east toward Plymouth and the upper Cape. Hoping to get something decent down here, short range models other than the NAM are cold enough for a few inches. This winter, whatever falls is gladly taken.

If I had to pick a spot to be for this, it would definitely be just south of Roanoke, down I-81 to Bristol and the W NC mountains. You guys should get buried around there. Enjoy!

I would track the 700/850mb lows on the models-where they go determines who mixes and dryslots. If the 850mb low goes over or north of you, expect a significant period of sleet. And mid level warming is often underestimated by models-I would take the warmest mid level forecast and go with that. Surface level warming can be overestimated, so that may set up a nasty area of ZR. Something we get burned with plenty of times up here too. Good luck down there as I may spot a cirrus cloud or two from this later today. Just maybe. Usually these suppressed pieces of crap at least get some cirrus up here.

The stronger than average SE Ridge will eventually burn us near the coast and force tracks inland. We’ve been on a good run without much blocking but it can’t last forever.

Lee Goldberg has 1-3" for NYC and most coastal areas (less than 1" far eastern LI, south Jersey Shore). Mentioned colder conditions on Fri than some models are showing. But honestly, good luck to anyone who has to make a snow forecast right now. Could be 1" in the city if the CCB is crap and we don't cool down, to half a foot or more if it really goes off.

TWC looks to go on the GFS output which as we know is the warmest of any model.