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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    At least the lack of rain East of the center should limit the tree damage somewhat. There’ll definitely be power outages though if the 60+ mph gusts do happen. If you’re expecting over an inch of rain though you’ll be disappointed. Many may not even make it to 0.5”.
  2. jm1220
    Always a risk for some tornadoes East of the track where feeder bands can pivot through. Other than that on the current path I wouldn’t expect much rain East of the city, maybe an inch if lucky. What we get here will come from the few feeder bands which comes down to luck. The heavy rain just like with Fay will be over NJ/Hudson Valley. Maybe some gusts over 60 on the coast which could knock some trees down/power out. Also some coastal flooding likely from the onshore wind/surge which should be fairly minor but the full moon will make it worse.
  3. jm1220
    Essentially a Fay repeat per the models tonight. Tracks up I-95-ish or just east, heavy rain axis over NJ.
  4. jm1220
    Speaking of which, downgraded to TS at 5pm
  5. jm1220
    Ehh garbage. May not still be a hurricane. Good news for FL which has enough on its hands already
  6. jm1220
    Looks pretty garbage-y on satellite. For me I’m looking to see where the heavy rain axis sets up. There’ll be better winds East of the track but I doubt this will be more than a 60mph TS when it gets here. It may be a 75-80 mph hurricane in NC but shear/dry air won’t be going away as a problem for it.
  7. jm1220
    Small differences mean a Matthew grazer track or one that goes inland along I-95 in FL. In a way we should hope for (for a less intense system up here) the 50 mile west track into FL. It being over water for 24 hours longer or more gives more time to strengthen before hitting NC and speeding up here.
  8. jm1220
    Small changes in the ridge-strengthen and it goes further west, and a small 50 mile difference could mean into FL vs no landfall until NC or no landfall at all. Either way hopefully some good rain makes it up here but a hurricane coming into LI is still quite unlikely.
  9. jm1220
    Nothing at all like Sandy. That was only so intense up here because it phased with a powerful mid latitude trough and was forced to by the blocking NE of it. It was essentially a bigger and stronger Perfect Storm 1991 forced inland. This setup is nothing like that.
  10. jm1220
    When storms are recurving NE near our area, they are often choking on dry air, getting sheared quite a bit and affected by cool waters. Water here is warmer than normal but not enough to sustain a near major hurricane. I would say at max it would be a strong TS up here. I’d hope to be on the west side where the rain would be. Also more likely is it tracks NE from Cape Hatteras and is entirely out to sea other than high waves.
  11. jm1220
    No rain here but a heavy shower looks to have gone just south of here in Melville.
  12. jm1220
    Probably should’ve been excessive heat warnings for today.
  13. jm1220
    Even with any onshore winds, water is too warm for it to cool things much and it brings the humidity. FOK is up to 90 and wind is SW. Dewpoint of 76!!
  14. jm1220
    Not every day that it’s 5 degrees hotter at FRG than EWR. It’s a roaster today for sure.
  15. jm1220
    I'd rather take the 100 on west wind with less humidity than 94 on SW wind with hideousness. If anything it was worse in Long Beach this past Sunday because of the humidity despite it being a few degrees cooler than inland areas. Water is too warm now for the sea breeze to be much relief.
  16. jm1220
    Torrential downpour, some decently loud thunder.
  17. jm1220
    Heavy rain and thunder just started here.
  18. jm1220
    Disgusting again today-91/77/105 at my closest station.
  19. jm1220
    Low 90s here in Long Beach and absolutely disgusting.
  20. jm1220
    I drove down to Long Beach today and the humidity here made it feel even worse despite it being cooler. That’s how it works-it might be cooler down here in these heat waves but the humidity mitigates it and today then some. The water’s plenty warm too because of the onshore flow all this time-no upwelling.
  21. jm1220
    Another dumping pop up shower right now. Must have been some kind of complex/boundary that survived from Rockland down to here.
  22. jm1220
    Downpour here in S Huntington.
  23. jm1220
    Humidity is disgusting today. Was just out for a walk and drenched in sweat after 10 minutes.
  24. jm1220
    Mon or Tue might have more of a westerly component to the winds but until then it’ll be hard to get out of the mid 80s right along the south shore, especially since it might be a stiff onshore wind. The humidity might make that stifling anyway. It’ll be worse up here since it should be 5-7 degs warmer each day with the same humidity.
  25. jm1220
    And even in the summer we're still cursed with the "last second west trend". Argh.
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