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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Even the RGEM and tucked models going east a little would be a great outcome for all of us other than the twin forks. The GFSv16 consistency is encouraging too, I don't see both of these flopping totally on their face this close in. The old GFS though I'm essentially disregarding.
  2. jm1220
    I think so but Jan 2016 was a different kind of storm than this one. We're in the range now where hopefully the NAM has a clue though. It's not 72-84 hours out anymore where it's usually discounted. Not sure how useful these are yet but the SREFs seemed pretty warm at 21z but sometimes the NMM/ARW models they run on are too amped.
  3. jm1220
    Hopefully the RGEM in 30min ticks east again, if so the NAM may be onto something here.
  4. jm1220
  5. jm1220
    It's awesome but for now have to treat it as wx porn unless the foreign models that have it more tucked jump on.
  6. jm1220
    NAM's a monster/crippler again. This is my favorite panel. This sits over NYC/Long Island for several hours. That would be 3"/hr snow in that band.
  7. jm1220
    Oh definitely, I can see some people getting 20". I just don't think it'll be the city in this setup. It'll be a place maybe near I-84 where ratios are good and there's plenty of moisture. snywx, sussexcountyobs, ForestHillWx, where you are will be some of the best spots.
  8. jm1220
    Yes and pan-seared 5 minutes on each side.
  9. jm1220
    For the City I'd say 9-12" with 9" in the Rockaways/JFK and 12" in the Bronx. That's about what consensus is. These insane model outputs aren't happening. I'd be thrilled but I'll eat my shoe if I get the 24" the new GFS shows.
  10. jm1220
    The strong east flow's a blessing and curse. Longitude west actually helps us this time. But we don't want a low stalling out just off Atlantic City or it's our turn sooner or later too.
  11. jm1220
    Usually the snow begins sooner than expected with these. Probably won't start for most of us until tomorrow overnight.
  12. jm1220
    NAM did very well with the Dec event. Euro and GFS (old version) were too cold.
  13. jm1220
    I'm at about 9" for the season now, if this can get me to over 20" I'd be thrilled.
  14. jm1220
    Twin forks could be higher than I have (4-7") if the front end overproduces but later on it looks pretty crappy there with the east flow/warm air that takes a good while longer to get close to the city.
  15. jm1220
    It's essentially consensus at this point. NAM/GFSv16 are awesome but those amounts aren't happening here. Amped/warm usually wins out in the end. And it's hard to forecast big time amounts when you're relying on a huge burst at the beginning. Ratios won't be ideal and oftentimes the dryslot comes in earlier than expected like 12/17. That could've been a foot here if the front end hung on for longer but it shredded up and warm air took over. Hopefully this will be colder than that one was but I'd say 80-90% chance there's at least some rain east of the city. Hopefully that happens when the dryslot is overhead and little would be falling anyway.
  16. jm1220
    You'd probably get what Middletown would, so 17-18". You look to be in an awesome spot.
  17. jm1220
    My call for now: Central Park: 11" White Plains: 14" Danbury: 15" JFK: 9" Newark: 12" Middletown, NY: 17" Morristown, NJ: 16" Bridgeport: 12" Long Beach: 8" Islip: 9" Montauk: 4" Asbury Park: 4" Me/PSV88/NorthShoreWX: 11"
  18. jm1220
    At this point you're right, the outcome's fine here and the mix happens when the precip lightens up but if we keep this trend we'll start seeing rain eat into the front end burst too. Luckily we have such a cold airmass to start which should at least make for a very nice event for everyone.
  19. jm1220
    Yep, I-81 corridor in PA looking to get demolished.
  20. jm1220
    Yep, this has 0.3" or so as rain east of the city. Very nice outcome anyway but we don't want this getting more amped. Hopefully 0z shifts it back SE a little.
  21. jm1220
    Seems to love that initial front end thump but it seemed more amped to me. Low looked to get close to Cape May. That's enough usually to change the city on east over. But it would be after most of the precip fell already.
  22. jm1220
    I highly doubt we get 25" of snow but its the new GFS version and hopefully onto something.
  23. jm1220
  24. jm1220
    It's been extremely consistent the last 4 runs or so. Hope it and the NAM are onto it.
  25. jm1220
    The RGEM deepens the trough more and strengthens the low early which causes it to be more of a coast hugger for a time and also bring in warm air around from the east. It backed away from this a little this run from 12z but hopefully that continues and the trough can be more progressive.
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