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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Was quite gusty before the heavy rain came through, curiously when the rain started the wind essentially ceased. Was likely a nasty few hours in Long Beach and immediate shore.
  2. jm1220
    Windier here now than it ever was with the last storm.
  3. jm1220
    The one and only time I was rooting against a major nor'easter, a week after Sandy (happy anniversary). One way or another we were screwed but I think it shifted east at the last minute and gave the NYC area 6-8" snow and lighter wind vs warm/rain and hurricane force winds which were expected. The snow demolished many of the trees we still had standing, caused more structural damage to ruined homes, did no favors to the hundreds of thousands still without power and shut the rails down. I slept on my friend's couch in Manhattan after the LIRR shut down. But yeah that was a notable one. Another one was 11/15/18, totally unexpected 4-6" of glop immediately pre-rush hour in 3-4 hours down to LI and NYC after a brief rain/snow mix was expected. That was total chaos and a cars/trucks graveyard on every road.
  4. jm1220
    With a sharp ridge axis where it is over the Rockies on that run, you would think it's an amped outcome on the East coast.
  5. jm1220
    Yep. Hard to bet against it.
  6. jm1220
    That rain pivot axis in central Suffolk around Rt 112 looks like it had the best rain totals of the whole area, over 6” and they were also stuck under some heavy bands even just outside that area. Looks like I had about 4.5” in Huntington Station.
  7. jm1220
    Probably 4” or so total where I am. It’s been breezy for a while but I don’t think anything over 35mph. Some small branches down.
  8. jm1220
    Breezy here but no strong winds where I am. I’m not near the water here so not too surprising.
  9. jm1220
    There certainly were gusts into the 70s in my neighborhood given the amount of tree damage and the fact there was little rain-just really some showers east of the track. With this, gusts in the 50s to 60mph will cause trees to go down given how saturated the ground is. That’ll mostly be for the shore areas especially out east in Suffolk but it’s also all about how close the low gets as it pinwheels. For more wind you want it more tucked for sure.
  10. jm1220
    Yep. Good moderate intensity here, better than radar would indicate.
  11. jm1220
    Rain starting to push back west a bit.
  12. jm1220
    We have still a long ways to go. The rain pushing back south won’t be as heavy as the front end but it’ll still be 1-3 more inches probably.
  13. jm1220
    Yep. The LLJ is also pushing north which means once the rain stops the winds should subside for a while. The parent low will die off and the one offshore will take over, meaning the rain will pivot back south and winds increase as it pinwheels. If this was winter, this front end batch would be a driving rain for most of us or snow to rain because of that tucked in low reflection near JFK. The precip pivoting back south would be snow due to the offshore low taking over.
  14. jm1220
    Yep there's going to be a pivot point somewhere over LI/S CT where the heavy rain will sit and eventually come back south. That's the area that will really get drenched with the 4-5"+ amounts.
  15. jm1220
    HRRR would be a nightmare anywhere near the coast. Has big rain amounts too, 3-5" areawide. Lots of tree damage if that materializes.
  16. jm1220
    I will say it's probably a good winter sign that we're getting a noreaster like this early. Usually predicts more like them later (Oct 2011 don't remind me so who knows lol).
  17. jm1220
    Annihi-fricking-lation down here. Drenching for 24 hours plus 60mph winds on top. And hate to say it but tucked in is usually the right answer.
  18. jm1220
    The 15” storm we got on 2/1? I definitely remember that lol.
  19. jm1220
    To be fair most were thinking we were doomed last Nov. I did too. I thought it would be a miracle if we made it normal snow and most us made it to 40”. I would say the tea leaves so far generally indicate a lousy/warm winter again but lots of factors at play besides just La Niña which the NWS prediction essentially took Nina climo off the printer and used that for the winter outlook.
  20. jm1220
    It’s pretty much climo for a Nina winter which is what they put up last winter. I put little/no stock in it since there are many other factors at play besides the weak to mod Nina expected. I guess it doesn’t predict snow for any place in particular. Last winter was warmer than average but also snowier here however nationwide it didn’t turn out how the median Nina winter does.
  21. jm1220
    They desperately need the rain/snow there and especially in the SW. If any good systems can make it there in this Nina year it would be a great thing. Usually Nina winters are wet/cold in the NW where it’s not as needed.
  22. jm1220
    Torrential rain closing in on I-35 with Blanco County estimating 5” rain. It’s Flash Flood Alley in that area for a reason. I remember Patricia’s remnants in Oct 2015 causing the heaviest rain I’ve ever seen in my life in Austin when I lived there. Parts of the city near the airport had I think close to 15” of rain. Not too long before the area had the insane May 2015 floods which devastated Wimberley, San Marcos and other towns on the Blanco River. This won’t be nearly as bad thankfully but Pacific tropical remnants can cause plenty of havoc along I-35.
  23. jm1220
    Bringing the south shore gunk up with me.
  24. jm1220
    The SE flow will make this worse in places vulnerable to upslope on those winds. Pretty deep moist flow will be riding up those mountains and squeezing out heavy rain. Central PA especially in for a drenching along with probably the Poconos/Catskills.
  25. jm1220
    Ridge over troubled waters pattern possibly.
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