jm1220

RGEM much much improved. Has a warning criteria event out to around I-287/87/I-84. Probably around a foot for the city on east.

West enough to where NYC gets a major hit. Relatively small changes needed to get it there. And it can happen in a pretty short timeframe. The 1/4/18 storm that first coined the "bomb cyclone" popular term was supposed to fringe NYC at best and clobber E LI and Boston until 36hrs out or even less. Central Park ended with 10" I believe and I ended up with 14-15" 25 miles east of NYC because of a relatively minor shift.

We want the upper 500mb low to close off just south of us. That would really deliver it. Pay the most attention to the upper level evolution.

If it’s way down south like over NC and it occludes down there it would just kind of drift east and not get the best dynamics up here. But the evolution looked weird and it again blows up random convection that it seems to chase. It was a lot better than 18z that’s what I care about. The upper air evolution was a hair away from another 12z blockbuster. Now we cross fingers for other models to follow.

NAM digs a little too far south/closes off too far south and it kind of escapes east and occludes. Again since it’s the Nam I really couldn’t care less. Just hysterical.

That’s absolutely embarrassing however this turns out. So glad the Nam is getting discontinued soon.

It kind of just gets left behind between the diving in northern stream and steep PNA ridge it looks like, like a cut off eddy in a stream. But hopefully it ends up participating more and adding to the storm.

Even if the Nam shows a bomb soon it still doesn’t mean much lol. It should be in a straitjacket. Would be nice to see that the trend toward more separation stopped and hopefully reverses.

SREFs should be pretty much disregarded at this point.

I can see how it gets there for sure but I’m hesitant due to all the disagreement. The Euro’s been nothing special this winter so far but it’s been better than the GFS. It’s still a fragile setup that can go to crap as we’re seeing on other guidance. But I really hope you’re right because the potential is through the roof (maybe up to the roof) if it does come together.

If the Euro fails this bad this close in it should just be tossed from there on. It’s bent a little to the other models but has shown at least a warning event for NYC for 6-7 runs straight. And the ensembles coming west again shows it really must be seeing something to give it a chance.

The NAM is absolutely schizophrenic as we've seen now so I'd give it little/zero weight at this point. Still waiting on the GFS/GGEM to REALLY hopefully come west to give the Euro support.

I do think the well NW areas need a lot of help here and are on life support with this one but it hasn't been a surprise given the trends over the last day or so. I'd put the "there's still a decent shot" line at I-287/87 and then along I-84 east of there. By decent I mean a warning level event. There could still be 2-4" or something like that well NW.

The Kuchera ratios aren't happening except for maybe well inland. That's showing maybe 15-1 ratios for the coast. MAYBE we can do 12-1 here. The winds are going to break the dendrites apart. That said the Euro run was very encouraging that at least this isn't dead. And the other models really aren't far off from something a lot better. We just need the upper lows to close off 6 hrs or so sooner. And we need some kind of help from the southern stream. Upton is loltastic with the snow ranges from nothing to 21" for me. But I guess that really is the 10 and 90% threshold at this point.

18z RGEM looks about the same to me, maybe a small bit SE.

If this really becomes a suppressed garbage storm again like the one we recently missed that hit SE VA/Delmarva like the NAM has it this run, I'll just crack up. That would make this winter rival 11-12. 01-02, 19-20 level of fail, despite the one lucky storm we had early this month. And I'll be on the 'warm us up and just get this god awful thing over with' train.

Like I said this morning-it flops around more than a freshly caught fluke. But the trend to leave the energy behind in the SW is real and it'll have to make up for it somewhere else like with a better northern stream. It's a shame but this is still salvageable for most of us.

Boxing Day 2010. NOT saying that will happen here.

There really was interference with convection in that storm so it can definitely happen. But the upper air development was good enough to compensate for many of us to get 6-9” from NYC east and in CT/MA up to 13”. This will have WAY more moisture to work with.

It’s why I cringed when yesterday we were seeing big solutions and knew we still had 84-96 hours left then. We’re still at lousy end of NAM run range and not even within the 3k, WRF, NMM etc

SNE Mets are pretty insistent that the snow will end up further west than modeled due to the moist inflow and evolution so that might be a weenie to hang your hat on. There usually is a weenie band on the western end of these that brings surprise high totals. Who knows how that will happen here but to keep in mind.

Yeah more than you might think. 1/27/15, 3/13/18 off top of my head.

The risk with this becoming northern stream dominated is how far offshore the low can escape before it gets captured and hooked north. That’s where you really do have the risk for it becoming another Juno 2015. The best bet for us (outside eastern Suffolk who should get slammed either way) is for the southern stream to still be involved.

No, I don’t have the subscription. I think that’s paywalled.

If it's doable for you I'd definitely head out there. Montauk is nice this time of year.