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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    From what I’ve seen living here our area can do okay in marginal events like last 2/28, but if we’re screwed otherwise like a close in low track or the mid level warm layers it won’t matter. I’ll gladly take whatever it is. My gut says it could be a lot of white rain again on the south shore/city and slushy couple or few inches for us.
  2. jm1220
    Maybe. It’ll be a close call here. If we get enough to cover the grass all the way it’ll be a big win. The surface isn’t the only problem with this, there are warm layers around 800mb that might keep us sleet for a while.
  3. jm1220
    Tougher call for the N Shore, Northern NYC and I-80 in NJ, slight south shifts can bring them in the game for 3-6”. But I-84 corridor looks golden for this and has for days.
  4. jm1220
    Midtown might not have any accumulation unless it pounds. It’s always tough to stick there and this will be a very marginal setup.
  5. jm1220
    Very preliminary I’d say 1-3” for the north shore away from the city, maybe an inch if lucky in the city and south shore. 3-6” north of the Tappan Zee and 6-12” near I-84.
  6. jm1220
    I-84 corridor is where the best spots been for days now. Is what it is, head fakes from crap models as they are.
  7. jm1220
    Head to Boston. This one’ll finally work out there.
  8. jm1220
    Whatever. We be done.
  9. jm1220
    Upper 50s today. Awesome.
  10. jm1220
    Nope. Huntington Station as my profile shows. 5” this “winter” so far and 8” last which is actually a lot better than the city.
  11. jm1220
    My shovel has been sitting in my storage room for 2 years now.
  12. jm1220
    Thing is unfortunately next time will trend north too and screw us. Disaster of a winter that can’t end soon enough. Nice mild day today at least.
  13. jm1220
    I have to think the GFS/Euro idea is right here but that CMC run is a huge forehead scratcher this close in. Maybe these south outliers mean GFS/Euro are too amped, I can hope anyway. But it can easily rampage north at 0z.
  14. jm1220
    Yeah wow. WTF with this storm.
  15. jm1220
    Depends on what the confluence does. It lets go whatsoever and we’re toast.
  16. jm1220
    It’s good IMO that it’s staying south. Maybe it means we’re not dealing with a huge late N push again and it isn’t that great a model anyway. I wouldn’t be worried at all north of the city unless we see a bigger confluence push on the other models.
  17. jm1220
    Looks like this is one where the two good areas will be just N of where the rain/snow line sets up and it’s cold enough and on the N end of the storm where good ratios happen and the northern most fronto band sets up. But those bands will pivot around so the people in good snow should all have fun at some point.
  18. jm1220
    It definitely can snow despite lousy temps going into it. But that all depends on the storm taking a good track. It seems like this one might be seeing how fast the R/S line can crash south with the dynamics. We probably all see snow to end it but after how much rain or waste.
  19. jm1220
    Hopefully this is the one where we make it happen and deny the usual late north push. But I’d way rather be in Boston or along I-84 to 90. If the confluence is real and does its job it can work, but we know what the odds favor.
  20. jm1220
    Tough winter.
  21. jm1220
    Like I said.... you do you. Hopefully the optimism pans out. Believe me we're due for the rabbit out of the hat. But don't also "we'll never get a snowstorm again, NYC is the worst place ever for snow" when it most likely pounds I-84/90 after it trends north in the last 48hrs. Hang out with the New England crew who will be measuring/celebrating I guess.
  22. jm1220
    There's a reason the mets are starting to honk in the New England forum but not here and WDrag didn't start a thread. Take from that what you will. And take what we've seen forever with this kind of system usually trending north at the end unless we get the rare pocket ace from stronger confluence.
  23. jm1220
    It's awesome but we'll have to see if GGEM is catching up to the vigorous but north models since it was so sheared out before. Maybe we can find a middle ground somewhere.
  24. jm1220
    And throw any 10-1 ratio map out the window. Unless it pounds like crazy right out of the gate and drives the temp down to 32, we will struggle with white rain and getting the snow to stick until temps drop. Again it can happen here if we get things right but anyone casting a bet would wager otherwise (talking near the city and much of LI).
  25. jm1220
    We have initial lousy temps that the storm will have to overcome even if it does track favorably and bomb out which is another big question. The low/lame predictions for NYC at this point are totally justified. There's the rabbit out of the hat chance it comes together but we all know what the odds favor and who they favor.
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