It's Always Sunny

I haven't looked at it in depth yet but looking at analogs there's nothing eye popping. Doesn't mean much though but it's always intriguing to see at least some similar event in the past.

So does this lose its chances of being tagged a derecho b/c it went OTS before it hit 240 miles?

PVD gusted 42kts

LLJ making its presence known. Great wind reports so far with this SQ.

Blue Hill gusted 73mph

KALB reported 54kt gust. Nice! KALB 071951Z 26034G54KT 3SM +TSRA SCT040CB BKN060 BKN090 17/09 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 28054/1951 LTG DSNT W-N RAB51 TSE46B48 PRESRR SLP016 FRQ LTGICCG W-N TS W-N MOV SE P0000 T01720094 KALB 071948Z COR 24016G22KT 10SM TS SCT040CB BKN060 BKN090 18/10 A2950 RMK AO2 PK WND 23028/1913 LTG DSNT W-N TSB48 FRQ LTGICCG W-N TS W-N MOV SE Edit: Now 59kts! KALB 071956Z 28058KT 1SM R01/4000VP6000FT +TSRA BKN035CB OVC045 17/09 A2959 RMK AO2 PK WND 27059/1952 LTG DSNT W-NE PRESRR FRQ LTGICCG ALQDS TS ALQDS ALQDS MOV SE T01720094 PNO $=

I still think it's pretty on point. 12Z winds did really well so I buy into what it is selling. I am interested to see how much Delta is affected once it moves over the YP because that will set the baseline of how much/fast it can recover once it re-enters the GoM.

What I meant by record setting is top 10-15 I should've phrased that differently. 2003 had 543, 2004 had 509, 2008 had 462. May 2011 would be 9th most active May. May 2010 is actually 12th but still impressive in my opinion.

I was just referring to how active they were. 2010 had record setting May (304) & June (324) numbers. 2011 had a whopping 758 tornados in April (highest ever on record) and May had 326 which was also amongst the highest. You're right about 2012 relatively speaking.

@CheeselandSkies I think it's safe to say Delta is now a member of the "Beast Mode" October Hurricanes Club.

Yeah good banding hopefully gets this thing more consolidated and erase that dry air pocket.

Yeah that would make sense. I'm really interested in how this upcoming severe season will play out since 2010 & 2011 were bonkers with a well established (moderate to strong) La Nina. I read your post about the drought and its downstream affect on early season severe potential in the east. Good stuff.

Too early to put Delta in that category. It has potential to be, but those other storms were in a league of their own.

And another thing I have a hard time buying into are those seasonal monthly H5 anoms because that just depicts the average pattern so you could still get 1-2 good s/w's out of Canada that result in something measurable.

Totally agree with you about the temps and with snow there are so many moving parts and even if things line up, your forecast still may not even materialize lol. My constant reminder is winter 2011-2012 where we had a weak La Nina, e'rly QBO, -PDO, snow weenies were jumping around with pt's and most of us in eastern MA got near record low snow lol.

Idk about you guys but I feel like I've heard a little bit of everything on how this winter will go for New England, more uncertainty than usual, at least for me. Depends on what you read I guess.

Seeing all these pics makes me regret not taking any on Blue Hill that day what a complete paste job. Downed tree and several limbs whole way up access road. Then again I didn't have a smart phone with a camera just my Samsung Intensity keypad phone lol. I do need to dig up my pics from Jan 26-27, 2015 blizzard though. I was part of the jackpot band in Boxboro at the time. What a great storm.

Yeah I was looking at that yesterday it's definitely not out of the realm of possibility. Do you know what may be causing the NOAA/NASA/BoM models to go stronger? Wasn't sure if it was a model bias of some sort. One thought of mine is that those models in particular have a stronger area of suppression over the central Pacific resulting in stronger easterlies?

Yep, mainly in low-mid troposphere.

I agree. CFS showing it to a lesser degree:

I think July is optimistic (I was thinking as early as late August/early September) but if that EWB continues that robust end of July onset could be possible. Latter half of hurricane season should be interesting that’s for sure.

Yeah I started noticing that possibly happening last week and today I was looking at the subtropical jet and it loses it's steam next week which further dampens any severe risk, at least here in the Plains however with some troughing remaining over the Southeast there still remains a possibility they get a day or two of severe potential, even with a "weakened" subtropical jet. This "lull" has the potential to spill into the first week of May based on what I was looking at but too far out for me to put much stock in it at this time.

Op GFS remains active for remainder of the month so remains to be seen if it changes course.

Next week or so looks favorable for severe but end of the month/early May in question with EPO trending positive per GEFS. EPS following similar suit.

Once that ULL passes through in about 4 days or so the ensembles remain mostly favorable through the end of the month for unsettled weather here, including severe potential. May not be in your backyard stuff but even on the 12th that area just east of the panhandle and over SW OK could be in a marginal or slight risk potentially and of course that can all shift so not a high confidence forecast by any means but there is certainly potential imo. Then from there on out we still got ridging over the west and troughing over central part of CONUS. That along with climo (it still being early in the month) I remain optimistic which I feel like is the general consensus here beyond day 10.