Indystorm

Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 453 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019 ...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN INDIANA... .Discussion... The late winter flood potential outlook for much of the White and Wabash River basins in central and southern Indiana is above normal. An above normal flood potential outlook means that significant rainfall is expected in the near future which could lead to extensive flooding across central and southern Indiana. As of February 21st, stream levels in central and southern Indiana were above normal for this time of year. Flooding was ongoing along the lower stretches of the White and Wabash basins with waters expected to stay above flood stage through early March. Much of central and southern Indiana experienced extensive flooding earlier this month with widespread minor flooding and scattered moderate flooding. With soils very saturated, any rainfall will lead to higher than normal runoff. Soil moisture is expected to remain above normal through much of Spring which could lead to more frequent floods than normal. Heavy rain is expected this weekend across with the heaviest rain falling across southern Indiana. This will lead to another round of flooding in locations that flooding has ended and prolong ongoing flooding. The 6 to 10 day outlook from February 26th to March 2nd And the 8 to 14 day outlook from February 28th through March 6th indicates near to below average precipitation and below average temperatures across Indiana. Anyone with interests in flood prone areas should remain alert to changing weather conditions. Flood conditions can develop quickly during early march. Many of the significant floods to strike Indiana have occurred during March.

Amazing discussions and views of Cumberland Falls......sure a lot more water than when I visited last year.

EURO continues to explosively deepen the surface low pressure as it moves in 24hr from the TX panhandle to upper lower MI from 1001 to 979 mb.

Okay, I'll bite. Both PAH and IND keep talking about possibility of svr on Sat. 12z GFS for Wed. shows 60 degree temps from central IL and IN southward, low 60 dews up the Wabash Valley 114 knot 500 mb jet, relatively low surface CAPE of 438 down by EVV with 400-500 0-3 km helicity and supercell composite of 3. Could be low CAPE, high kinematic event if trends increase. Discuss.

Parameters are starting to align for sv wx for central and sw IN and se IL for Saturday afternoon and evening per 00z GFS. IND already telling spotters to keep abreast of the possibility for svr storms as we progress through this week and additional data become available. Might be wise to start a thread for the svr aspects of this system if trends continue.

Great points. At least we won't have to be concerned with moisture availability given what is happening now and in the near future with the TN and OH valleys. Also I remember traveling into the Ohio River Valley to see the flooding in spring 2011. Yes, many other factors came into play, but that year certainly stands out svr wx wise.

fzdz the default down here too with recent systems...probably including the upcoming midweek one. I'm ready for spring svr season.

Hasn't there been some guidance showing troughs in the west from mid March on? Like Euro weeklies? We can always hope for a more active storm season than we've had of late.

Never doubt that WAA, especially this time of year.

Hey, even Tom Skilling has been talking about the increasing higher sun angle!

Did not know the FV was replacing the NAM....thought it was just GFS. Is the short term resolution supposed to be that much better?

28 here just ne of Indpls with a snow/sleet mix. 33 at EVV. Precip started at ll:30 EST.

Just put under a flood watch here again from Sun. night till Tues. morning. My point forecast for the time period totals 1.5 inches of total precip, supposed to come as a mixture of snow, then freezing rain, and then rain. I think the more significant ice potential will be north of me in north central IN and possibly southern parts of Chicago county warning area.

Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY 549 AM EST Sat Feb 9 2019 /449 AM CST Sat Feb 9 2019/ ...Another Round of Significant Rain Expected Sunday through Tuesday... Plentiful moisture combined with multiple disturbances moving along a stalled boundary over the region will result in rounds of moderate to at times heavy rain over southern Indiana and central Kentucky Sunday through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are expected with locally higher totals possible over west central Kentucky. This additional rain falling on already saturated grounds from rains this past week will result in ponding of water on roads and in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Isolated flash flooding may occur as well if rainfall rates become high enough. Many rivers, creeks and streams are already running high or are experiencing minor flooding. Rains early this coming week will likely aggravate existing river flooding and cause new river flooding. Rivers that are expected to be impacted include the Ohio, Green, Rough, Rolling Fork, Kentucky, Blue, and Licking Rivers as well Drakes and Elkhorn Creeks.

EF-0 on that Clark County Ohio tornado rating.

And county flood warnings have been extended until Saturday morning for much of central and sw IN. The Wabash river continues to rise with flood warnings extended indefinitely at least through Tuesday when more rain will factor into the mix. Monroe and Brown counties especially have multiple roads flooded and/or washed out which will take weeks to repair according to highway personnel.

EF-0 rating........5 mile path length If I am not mistaken this is Indiana's first tornado of 2019.

Severe t storm warning in an ice storm warning area in sw Missouri at present. Don't see that every day.

44 degrees currently here at Indpls with WF just to our south expected to move northward on Thursday and give us a high of 60. Rivers and creeks throughout central and southern IN are already in minor flood per hydro map and this will only continue with Thursday's rain, followed by freezing temps and then a new system to start the week to provide more moisture. Gonna be an interesting late winter period before the start of met spring.

Had t storms on occasion overnight Tuesday night here in central IN. First I've noticed this year. Waiting for another round tonight and tomorrow as the WF retreats and the cold front approaches.

Going to have quite the run of baroclinic battles in the extended if the FV3 or even the GFS come to fruition here in the Midwest. Feb. is a short month so I definitely start thinking about spring.

Overachieving temp wise here. Currently 61 and sunny with forecast high of 59.

Been at work all day so could not report until now. 4 inches here but Indpls roads were terrible this morning with the cold not allowing salt to work as well as hoped. Starting to get freezing fog in the area now at 23 degrees.

Well, February is the time of year climate wise when I have my biggest concerns for ice here in the central IN region. So at least this is relatively normal. But it looks like this Friday evening's GFS is starting to move to the EURO warmth solution for much of IN at least on this run for next Thursday.

From 1930 to 1999 Mt. Carroll held the Illinois record at -35 until Congerville took it away from them. Now it has regained it.