Indystorm

18z NAM for PAH area for late Thursday afternoon

I attended a sv wx spotter session last Sat. and asked the met about the TN tornadoes with dews only in the 50's and he said the stronger shear compensated for that. Concern for PAH and lower Ohio Valley area in particular for Thursday evening Mar. 12.

That's what happens when we enter Daylight Saving Time.

It's a week out with usual caveats, but 12z GFS on March 8 continues its trend of producing a storm around St. Patrick's Day that could be a svr wx producer for the southern Midwest and mid south. New ERTAF outlook issued the evening of March 8 also mentions this possibility.

I think this may be the first EF-4 tornado of the year.

The Nashville tornado reminded me that you can have destructive tornadoes with temps in the low 60's and dews in the upper 50's. You don't always need dews approaching 70. This event did have very strong lapse rates, however.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 822 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY... NORTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY... NORTHEASTERN TODD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 900 PM CST. * AT 820 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEIR, OR 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOPKINSVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. THIS STORM ALSO HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGE IN THE CROFTON AREA. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... WEIR AROUND 825 PM CST. DUNMOR AROUND 845 PM CST.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 711 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 MOC223-030145- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200303T0145Z/ WAYNE MO- 711 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CST FOR WAYNE COUNTY... AT 708 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PIEDMONT, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. THE PUBLIC REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO BETWEEN PIEDMONT AND MILL SPRING AT 705 PM. ANOTHER STRONG CIRCULATION WAS 9 MILES SOUTH OF GREENVILLE. THIS STORM WAS ALSO PRODUCING PING PONG SIZE HAIL.

Helicity is increasing in the tor watch area...with temps in mid 60's and dews in the upper 50's.

.A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN CARTER...SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE AND NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTIES... AT 624 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ELLSINORE, OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF PIEDMONT, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. A POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS REPORTED AT HIGHWAY 21 SOUTH AND HIGHWAY 60 AT 620 PM.

First tornado warning of this episode. Usual procedure forward is to post only radar confirmed or spotter indicated tornadoes. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 614 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 700 PM CST. * AT 614 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ELLSINORE, OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VAN BUREN, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... ELLSINORE AROUND 620 PM CST. BRUSH ARBOR AROUND 640 PM CST. WILLIAMSVILLE AROUND 700 PM CST.

MOC203-030030- /O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200303T0030Z/ SHANNON MO- 611 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN SHANNON COUNTY... AT 610 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF EMINENCE, OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF VAN BUREN, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN SHANNON COUNTY.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 553 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY... NORTHEASTERN MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 630 PM CST. * AT 552 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BROOKPORT, OR NEAR PADUCAH, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...AT 5:50 PM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED HEAVY DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND ACROSS WESTERN MCCRACKEN COUNTY, KY. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PADUCAH, METROPOLIS, BROOKPORT, SMITHLAND AND HAMLETSBURG.

Tornado watch issued this Monday evening March 2 for the Evansville/Paducah area on sw to Harrison Arkansas. Primary concern is large hail with good lapse rates but a tornado or two also possible

Absolutely amazing. Global warming anyone?

That was a nice write up on Ed on the LOT webpage. I learned of Dan's retirement from a commercial tv news station. Now on to some spring like weather for the beginning of met spring.

Just saw on the news that Dan McCarthy of NWS Indianapolis is retiring from his met career after 33 years. I think he was at SPC at the time of the May 3, 1999 tornado outbreak.

There have been at least 19 EF-2 tornadoes to date in 2020 according to Ian Livingston of the U.S. Tornadoes Site. His Capital Weather Gang will be making their spring prediction by the end of this month.

GFS for some runs now has been showing quite a potent storm for the Midwest coming up the MS valley as we approach Ash Wed. Feb. 26 . Will have to watch and see how this develops.

Winter is over. We had it in November. Now I look forward to spring. Saw my first robin of the season today on grass at the base of a small tree by the Greenfield public library. Yes, I know that some robins stay here thru the winter, going into deeper forest cover, and then come out to lawns when temps get warmer. But today is the earliest in my life I can ever recall seeing the first robin of the season. It will be interesting to see who wins out during the month of Feb......the robin or the CPC forecast of colder temps.

I'm liking the 7 to 8 inch snow along the I-70 corridor in IL and IN earlier this season. Now I am starting to look for tornado and svr outlooks for 2020 for the south and midwest. Good luck Chi towners. My family up in the Calumet region is moaning the lack of snow there and envious of this latest storm giving snow to areas north and west and over in Michigan.

Yes, out in fantasyland but GFS for several runs has been hinting at a big storm of some sort around Thanksgiving....worth watching.

Tornado warnings out now in se Nebraska. Watch may be forthcoming this Tuesday afternoon and evening Oct. 1.

I'm ashamed of NOAA for throwing their NWS colleagues under the bus. President Trump exhibits a severe narcissistic personality disorder with an ego that refuses to let him admit he is human and can make a mistake. This disorder can explain all of his tweets, discounts of others, and love of adjectives like great, wonderful, best, superb, etc. "I alone can fix it." The behavior is putting our country at risk. I'm also ashamed of many of my professional psychological and mental health colleagues for refusing to highlight this disorder for what it is. They don't do so because of what is known as the "Goldwater rule," which essentially affirms that unless you have personally examined a client you cannot make a formal diagnosis. Trump's actions and tweets are a matter of public record. And now for an agency like NOAA to put politics ahead of science is infuriating.

Perhaps....but those of us who are Midwesterners hold scientist/storm chaser Tim Samaras, killed in the May 2013 El Reno OK tornado in high esteem. His passion must have been a little crazy too.