Indystorm

18z NAM for PAH area for late Thursday afternoon

I attended a sv wx spotter session last Sat. and asked the met about the TN tornadoes with dews only in the 50's and he said the stronger shear compensated for that. Concern for PAH and lower Ohio Valley area in particular for Thursday evening Mar. 12.

That's what happens when we enter Daylight Saving Time.

It's a week out with usual caveats, but 12z GFS on March 8 continues its trend of producing a storm around St. Patrick's Day that could be a svr wx producer for the southern Midwest and mid south. New ERTAF outlook issued the evening of March 8 also mentions this possibility.

I think this may be the first EF-4 tornado of the year.

The Nashville tornado reminded me that you can have destructive tornadoes with temps in the low 60's and dews in the upper 50's. You don't always need dews approaching 70. This event did have very strong lapse rates, however.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 822 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY... NORTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY... NORTHEASTERN TODD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 900 PM CST. * AT 820 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEIR, OR 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOPKINSVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. THIS STORM ALSO HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGE IN THE CROFTON AREA. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... WEIR AROUND 825 PM CST. DUNMOR AROUND 845 PM CST.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 711 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 MOC223-030145- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200303T0145Z/ WAYNE MO- 711 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CST FOR WAYNE COUNTY... AT 708 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PIEDMONT, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. THE PUBLIC REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO BETWEEN PIEDMONT AND MILL SPRING AT 705 PM. ANOTHER STRONG CIRCULATION WAS 9 MILES SOUTH OF GREENVILLE. THIS STORM WAS ALSO PRODUCING PING PONG SIZE HAIL.

Helicity is increasing in the tor watch area...with temps in mid 60's and dews in the upper 50's.

.A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN CARTER...SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE AND NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTIES... AT 624 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ELLSINORE, OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF PIEDMONT, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. A POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS REPORTED AT HIGHWAY 21 SOUTH AND HIGHWAY 60 AT 620 PM.

First tornado warning of this episode. Usual procedure forward is to post only radar confirmed or spotter indicated tornadoes. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 614 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 700 PM CST. * AT 614 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ELLSINORE, OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VAN BUREN, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... ELLSINORE AROUND 620 PM CST. BRUSH ARBOR AROUND 640 PM CST. WILLIAMSVILLE AROUND 700 PM CST.

MOC203-030030- /O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200303T0030Z/ SHANNON MO- 611 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN SHANNON COUNTY... AT 610 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF EMINENCE, OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF VAN BUREN, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN SHANNON COUNTY.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 553 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY... NORTHEASTERN MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 630 PM CST. * AT 552 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BROOKPORT, OR NEAR PADUCAH, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...AT 5:50 PM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED HEAVY DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND ACROSS WESTERN MCCRACKEN COUNTY, KY. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PADUCAH, METROPOLIS, BROOKPORT, SMITHLAND AND HAMLETSBURG.

Tornado watch issued this Monday evening March 2 for the Evansville/Paducah area on sw to Harrison Arkansas. Primary concern is large hail with good lapse rates but a tornado or two also possible

Absolutely amazing. Global warming anyone?

That was a nice write up on Ed on the LOT webpage. I learned of Dan's retirement from a commercial tv news station. Now on to some spring like weather for the beginning of met spring.

Just saw on the news that Dan McCarthy of NWS Indianapolis is retiring from his met career after 33 years. I think he was at SPC at the time of the May 3, 1999 tornado outbreak.

And how much money has been spent to tweak and upgrade these models in recent years?

There have been at least 19 EF-2 tornadoes to date in 2020 according to Ian Livingston of the U.S. Tornadoes Site. His Capital Weather Gang will be making their spring prediction by the end of this month.

Have enjoyed your nw Ohio postings. Love Charleston South Carolina. Have a good move.

GFS for some runs now has been showing quite a potent storm for the Midwest coming up the MS valley as we approach Ash Wed. Feb. 26 . Will have to watch and see how this develops.

Yep....seems to be nation wide and not just in our region.

Same here now at Fortville. Pouring snow with small flake size.

Have now transitioned to a mix here on Indpls ne side. Sleet reported downtown per WTHR. Had just enough snow to whiten rooftops and ground, although much grass is still showing. Heavy rain around EVV with flood warnings in PAH area.

Lovely, steady snow with modest size flakes starting to whiten things up a bit here.