Indystorm

Looks like that long track large hail storm will be heading for Pere Marquette State Park and Alton Illinois in the near future.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1030 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2020 MOC019-027-051-151-280400- /O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-200328T0400Z/ COLE MO-BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-OSAGE MO- 1030 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL COLE...SOUTH CENTRAL BOONE...SOUTHERN CALLAWAY AND NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES... AT 1029 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HOLTS SUMMIT, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. HAZARD...THREE INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. VERY LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM IN JEFFERSON CITY. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND VEHICLES. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... JEFFERSON CITY, FULTON, HOLTS SUMMIT, WARDSVILLE, NEW BLOOMFIELD, CHAMOIS, LAKE MYKEE TOWN, LAKE MYKEE, WILLIAMSBURG, MOKANE, MORRISON, WAINWRIGHT, PORTLAND, OSAGE CITY, FRANKENSTEIN, TEBBETTS, GUTHRIE, REFORM, STEEDMAN AND BONNOTS MILL.

I can remember just by anecdote some svr wx events that had storms early in the day to prime the atmosphere and put down boundaries, then had clearing and insolation, and powerful storms later in the day. The classic extensive example of course is 4/27/11 but am not saying this will be anything like that. Much smaller regional outbreaks have also had a similar pattern.

Hard to believe the 70 dew points that HRRR is pooling along the front tomorrow, even though St. Louis is currently 74/64 this evening, but other HRRR parameters are downright scary.

This is just conjecture on my part, but I always think it is better to err on the conservative side and then ramp up than vice versa. I always think of "day of" outlooks as being the most helpful,so I will be waiting for the day one outlook later tonight. True, with all the attention on Covid 19 I would want the media to make sure people in the affected areas are aware of the danger. In fact, when a situation looks promising I usually have a little game of asking myself....Ok, what could go wrong with this?

The hailers mean business this Friday evening. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 357 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... NORTHEASTERN MAYES COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 430 PM CDT. * AT 357 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CHEROKEE STATE PARK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80 MPH. HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. * LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE... JAY... GROVE... LANGLEY... BERNICE... KETCHUM... SPAVINAW... DISNEY... BIG CABIN... PENSACOLA... HOOT OWL... HONEY CREEK STATE PARK... CHEROKEE STATE PARK... BERNICE STATE PARK... SPAVINAW STATE PARK... CLEORA... CHLOETA... STRANG... DISNEY LITTLE BLUE STATE PARK... ZENA... THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 274 AND 276. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO SHELTER INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING, AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A bit earlier than I was expecting for svr storms this Friday evening. Patches of clear sky along the I-44 corridor in MO. Mesoscale Discussion 0238 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 Areas affected...Far northeast Oklahoma...far northern Arkasnas...and southwest Missiouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272045Z - 272245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Elevated convection is gradually increasing in coverage across northeast OK and the AR/MO border. This activity will move into southwest MO in the coming hours and will pose a threat for large hail as well as gusty winds. Trends will be monitored and a watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends show gradual new thunderstorm development across northeast OK and along the AR/MO border. These storms are entering an environment with 50-60 knots of effective bulk shear and MUCAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg per SPC RAP Mesosanalysis - though these storms are likely being influenced by roughly 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE from around the 700 mb level where the convection is rooted. This environment has already produced 1-1.75 inch hail within the past hour, so will to continue to support a large hail risk with the strongest storms for the coming 1-2 hours. Additionally, 6-7 C/km low level lapse rates will continue to support a risk for strong winds. Although the environment is supportive of convective development, storm longevity is uncertain and it remains unclear whether these storms will be able to become rooted in the boundary layer, which would prolong the severe risk. Trends will continue to be monitored and a watch may be needed if it becomes clear that storms are becoming surface-based.

April 9, 2015 1630 outlook was enhanced with a 10 % hatched tor area over nw IL.

Wow... a jump past enhanced to moderate.....will bear watching closely this Saturday. And it is only March. Have we had moderate risk yet this year? Yep. Jan. 10, 2020 in Arkansas and Louisiana....

Don't know about the Rochelle tornado but I do know that the Plainfield F5 tornado did interact with a lake outflow boundary as it moved se.

I honestly thought most wx data came from wx balloons which were released but I have seen your concern raised elsewhere.

Big svr t storm watch for 2.5 inch hail from now to 5 a.m. CDT from eastern KS to sw IL.

Haven't looked at parameters yet but I am wondering about similarities between this set up for Sat, and the April 9, 2015 Rochelle-Fairdale IL EF-4. Both had a positively tilted trough.

Well, Tim, I'll bite to help get your thread started. What with elevated hailers tonight, (St Louis talking about baseball size hail in mid MO along the I-70 corridor) and Friday and then a possible significant event on Saturday and a shelter in place warning I'm going to be spending my time watching models and radars the next two days. Have to admit the SPC day 3 update spooked me a bit because of its rarity. Have to admit that 93 degree reading in Tulsa earlier today also surprises me.

Lincoln Illinois is 53 right now and St. Louis 78. Anyone see a front somewhere?

Looking at morning NAM and GFS parameters today I would have to agree with Hoosier's post above that things all depend upon the strength of the lake influence wrt how far north that warm front is gonna go on Sat afternoon and evening. There's gonna be a heck of a gradient and potential for svr storms between west central and ne Illinois though.

223 deaths reported Wed. in America....a new high for a single day.

Scary NAM forecast for the Calumet region for Sat. afternoon & eve using ye olde clown maps. If NAM is slower it could be even more intense due to WAA.

Good question, particularly with the set up coming for this weekend here in the Midwest. I think if you were a journalist, photographer, scientist or tv film crew person things might go easier with you than if you were just chasing for the heck of it. But I don't know.

If this has already been discussed somewhere in this thread, please excuse me. Wed. March 25 USA Today has an article entitled "Social Distancing or Tornado Shelter. Which do you pick? It mentions that Newcastle OK has a city owned shelter that holds 1000 people but it is closed for now. Obviously I think an oncoming tornado poses a much higher risk than coronavirus for the length of time people might be in a shelter for the duration of the tornado, but what about during recovery time if the shelter is used to house those whose homes have been destroyed. Interesting article especially since we are going into the active spring tornado season.

Just read that Waffle House has closed over 400 restaurants. PUBLISHED: MAR 25TH, 2020 - 4:30PM (EDT)UPDATED: MAR 25TH, 2020 - 4:32PM (EDT) ATLANTA (WXIA) — You know it's bad when Waffle House is closed. Waffle House has been a part of life in the south and other parts of the U.S. since its founding in suburban Atlanta in early September 1955. The diner-style restaurant quickly spread across much of the southern United States, and is noted for always being open, with nearly 2,000 locations, serving breakfast, lunch and dinner at all times of the day and night. They started using the Waffle House Index during natural disasters, particularly for hurricanes, in 2004. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) even began using it to determine how bad things were in particular areas. In 2011, former FEMA director Craig Fugate mentioned what he termed the "Waffle House Index," as a measure of this. "The Waffle House test just doesn't tell us how quickly a business might rebound — it also tells how the larger community is faring," said a FEMA blog post from 2011.

This is much farther north from where SPC currently has a svr outlook. Don't know if it's the NAM just being the NAM.

18z NAM starting to look interesting wrt parameters for west central and ne IL this coming Sat. afternoon and evening.

Well, I tried to get out and walk a little bit for some exercise this late afternoon. Went to Flat Fork Creek park just a mile west of me. I could barely find a parking spot and paved trails were like Disney world during holiday time. Needless to say I didn't walk very far before deciding to turn around and go home to avoid the throngs of people. And we in Indiana are supposed to shelter in place except for some exercise? Too risky for me at this time of day even if it was outdoors.