Indystorm

That is definitely the big scary news story here in the Indpls area this evening.

I think the guidelines are ten or less. We have even dispensed with board meetings for this period. I have a varied background. My major on my bachelor's degree from I.U. decades ago was public health education with a minor in earth science, and I eventually got training in theology and became a minister. Go figure.

Very sad to hear of this practice and theology. Our church has followed the governor's orders and halted public worship. We communicate with e mail including my sermons each week since we do not have live streaming and a fairly elderly congregation. We are United Methodist, and John Wesley's three simple rules were, First, do no harm. Do good, And stay in love with God. You can't be a witness when you are harming your neighbors by exposing them to a potentially deadly virus.

IND agrees with SPC currrent outlook. Tuesday the aforementioned upper wave will be moving off to the east and as the day commences a capping inversion will build over the area under weak upper ridging. Central Indiana will remain in the warm sector with a warm front to the north as a system approaches from the west. Some uncertainty regarding how long it will take the cap to break, how long earlier clouds from the Monday night rain and storms will take to move out, and the exact timing of the upper wave and front. However, shear with the incoming system is solid. Temperatures should reach into the 70s (and possibly upper 70s if skies clear out) and models show dewpoints climbing into the lower to middle 60s with southwesterly flow. If these features can come together, the potential for severe weather is there. Steep mid level lapse rates look to advect in over the area late in the day as well. Looking at all of the above and checking out forecast soundings, current thoughts are cap will hold most of the day and best chances for development of storms will be early evening into the night. Large hail and damaging winds the main threat at this time. SPC slight risk looks reasonable.

LOT still hanging its hat on the King for the Sunday AFD. Heading into the day on Tuesday, there could be some residual cloudiness/ACCAS, but expect temperatures to still manage to get up into the 70s across the area thanks to southwesterly flow at the surface advecting warm moist air into the region. The ECMWF continues to indicate highs in the upper 70s are possible, especially for our far southwestern zones. This will help set the stage for potential strong to perhaps severe storms Tuesday evening. The big question is whether there is enough forcing to break the strong capping inversion in place. Models are not consistent with timing and location of convective initiation, with many suggesting things develop after 00Z and farther to the southeast. The ECMWF has been consistently developing a line of convection across our NW by 21-22Z run after run, so cannot fully discount this. It is worth noting the ECMWF has a stronger 500mb speed max reaching the area prior to 00Z which could explain why convection is able to initiate prior to 00Z. With such a robust EML, it is possible that lower dewpoints could mix down to the surface, however, if there is sufficient clearing during the day, temps could reach into the mid to upper 70s which could provide sufficient surface destabilization to provide additional lift to overcome this. Given these uncertainties, thunderstorm coverage would likely be isolated/discrete. If storms are able to form, steep lapse rates exceeding 8C/km and MUCAPE over 2000+J/kg and sufficient shear suggest strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible if they are able to form. Will continue to evaluate as things get closer. A stronger cold front pushes through the area on Wednesday. Thunderstorm potential is highly dependent on how things ultimately evolve on Tuesday, but if the atmosphere is able to recover, there is a window for thunderstorm development again Wednesday evening, especially for areas south of I-80. If dewpoints struggle to get back into the 50s, thunderstorm development may be limited.

As with 3/28 I think the issue will be how far north the WF gets and how high the dews progress geographically. Our surface temps here in IN have been slow to reach max guidance the past couple of days, but I see what you are talking about, Brandon, on the models.

From Chicago discussion this Sat, concerning Tuesday evening. Aforementioned set-up with temps in 70s and around 60/lower 60s dew points could yield moderate instability of 1000-2000 j/kg MLCAPE. This is concerning as strengthening northwest flow aloft with approaching wave later in the day/early evening may support 40-50+ kt of deep layer bulk shear and a strongly veering profile. This period will be one to watch for northwest flow strong to severe thunderstorm risk Tuesday PM. The above described wind profiles would potentially be supportive of supercells with a large to very large hail risk given steep lapse rates and large CAPE in hail growth zone. Steep low level lapse rates may also develop, posing a threat for damaging downburst winds. Looming uncertainty with this threat pertains to the potential for EML capping to hold if there is less insolation and/or forcing and frontal convergence is not enough to erode the MLCINh. ECMWF has been most consistent in favoring convective initiation, with GFS more capped, though ECMWF does have solid ensemble support including from GEFS. Capped PoPs in mid to high chance range due to uncertainty, and did add some 3-hourly temporal detail to PoPs Tuesday afternoon.

Lapse rates still look very good over northern IL and IN for Tuesday afternoon and evening (over 8)/ per GFS this evening. Will have to watch how this progresses as we get closer.

Good idea to help maintain one's mental health in all this since social distancing might be dragging on through May and not just the end of April. Our Governor Holcomb has just said two weeks more for stay home advisory but he has already cancelled collective school meetings for the rest of the academic year, so I think his comment is just a way of softening the blow until the time comes to extend the shelter in place once again timewise.

It's starting to get to all of us.

Indiana's Governor and State School Supt. have just announced this afternoon that all K-12 public and private schools must continue with e learning to the end of the school year.

Interesting article on how warmer Gulf temps could impact tornado and hurricane season this year. https://www.inquirer.com/wires/wp/weather-hurricanes-tornados-20200331.html

Now 3873 COVID 19 deaths in America as we enter the month of April, more deaths than during Katrina, 9/11, or Antietam, the bloodiest day of the Civil War.

Yeah, 6.5, ne of Boise, largest in state since 1983 . And on March 18 a 5.7 mag quake hit just west of Salt Lake City with 600 measured aftershocks. Wow!

My redbud is starting to get purple and my neighbor's forsythia is bright yellow....so spring is here even if the temp doesn't always seem like it.

Cheers to you and your doctor, Jackstraw, for being proactive. I am one of the seniors on this board and have my next wellness check in May following one in December. Have been ok with no symptoms so far. And Hoosier, I have found it is easier to get toilet paper at CVS than at my local IGA.

Looking at morning NAM and GFS parameters today I would have to agree with Hoosier's post above that things all depend upon the strength of the lake influence wrt how far north that warm front is gonna go on Sat afternoon and evening. There's gonna be a heck of a gradient and potential for svr storms between west central and ne Illinois though.

223 deaths reported Wed. in America....a new high for a single day.

Scary NAM forecast for the Calumet region for Sat. afternoon & eve using ye olde clown maps. If NAM is slower it could be even more intense due to WAA.

Good question, particularly with the set up coming for this weekend here in the Midwest. I think if you were a journalist, photographer, scientist or tv film crew person things might go easier with you than if you were just chasing for the heck of it. But I don't know.

If this has already been discussed somewhere in this thread, please excuse me. Wed. March 25 USA Today has an article entitled "Social Distancing or Tornado Shelter. Which do you pick? It mentions that Newcastle OK has a city owned shelter that holds 1000 people but it is closed for now. Obviously I think an oncoming tornado poses a much higher risk than coronavirus for the length of time people might be in a shelter for the duration of the tornado, but what about during recovery time if the shelter is used to house those whose homes have been destroyed. Interesting article especially since we are going into the active spring tornado season.

Just read that Waffle House has closed over 400 restaurants. PUBLISHED: MAR 25TH, 2020 - 4:30PM (EDT)UPDATED: MAR 25TH, 2020 - 4:32PM (EDT) ATLANTA (WXIA) — You know it's bad when Waffle House is closed. Waffle House has been a part of life in the south and other parts of the U.S. since its founding in suburban Atlanta in early September 1955. The diner-style restaurant quickly spread across much of the southern United States, and is noted for always being open, with nearly 2,000 locations, serving breakfast, lunch and dinner at all times of the day and night. They started using the Waffle House Index during natural disasters, particularly for hurricanes, in 2004. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) even began using it to determine how bad things were in particular areas. In 2011, former FEMA director Craig Fugate mentioned what he termed the "Waffle House Index," as a measure of this. "The Waffle House test just doesn't tell us how quickly a business might rebound — it also tells how the larger community is faring," said a FEMA blog post from 2011.

This is much farther north from where SPC currently has a svr outlook. Don't know if it's the NAM just being the NAM.

18z NAM starting to look interesting wrt parameters for west central and ne IL this coming Sat. afternoon and evening.

Well, I tried to get out and walk a little bit for some exercise this late afternoon. Went to Flat Fork Creek park just a mile west of me. I could barely find a parking spot and paved trails were like Disney world during holiday time. Needless to say I didn't walk very far before deciding to turn around and go home to avoid the throngs of people. And we in Indiana are supposed to shelter in place except for some exercise? Too risky for me at this time of day even if it was outdoors.