Indystorm

Just read on CNN site that both Disneyland and Disneyworld are closing. Have a relative who was supposed to travel with the Highland IN band and orchestra at the end of next week to perform at the park and tour Universal as well. She's gonna be one very disappointed gal.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 536 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 615 PM CDT. * AT 536 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR POPLAR BLUFF, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

Mesoscale Discussion 0171 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Areas affected...Portions of southeast MO and northern AR Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 121931Z - 122100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the area and will be capable of severe hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch is likely in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Strong forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level speed max and a cold front will contribute to thunderstorm development over the MCD area in the next 1-2 hours. Storms are expected to develop first over southeast MO, then southwestward along/ahead of the cold front into northern AR. The airmass over southeast MO has been slow to destabilize because of abundant clouds, but temperatures warming into the mid 60s to low 70s near the AR/MO border will quickly advect northward to near Farmington prior to storms developing. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8.5 C/km sampled by the 18z SGF sounding, dewpoints in the low 60s, and continued heating will contribute to a corridor of 1000-1500 MLCAPE along/ahead of the front. Supercell modes will be supported by effective shear magnitudes of 50-60 kt, favorable angles between the deep-layer shear and the front, and storm speeds that will be fast enough to remain ahead of the front. Although surface winds have veered to south-southwesterly, storm motions forecast to be 270-290 deg and strong 850-700-mb wind speeds should still result in 0-1-km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 over the area, contributing to some tornado potential in the evening. Given the steep lapse rates and 50-kt winds in the 850-700-mb layer, severe hail and damaging wind gusts are also possible. A tornado Watch is likely to be issued.

..A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR POPE...NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON...WILLIAMSON...SALINE...SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES... AT 224 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WEST FRANKFORT TO NEAR CRAINVILLE, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. WIND DRIVEN 2 INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED ALONG I-57 SOUTH OF WEST FRANKFORT. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MARION, HARRISBURG, ELDORADO, JOHNSTON CITY, GALATIA, GOLCONDA, PITTSBURG, CREAL SPRINGS, THOMPSONVILLE, LAKE OF EGYPT AREA, CARRIER MILLS, RALEIGH, HANAFORD, STONEFORT, WHITEASH, WILLIAMSON COUNTY REGIONAL AIRPORT, NEW BURNSIDE, SPILLERTOWN, BROUGHTON AND EDDYVILLE.

Mesoscale Discussion 0170 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Areas affected...Southern IL...Far Southwest IN...Western KY...Far Southeast MO/MO Bootheel Concerning...Tornado Watch 46... Valid 121828Z - 122030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 46 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts and line-embedded tornadoes is expected to increase over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Bowing segment moving across far southwest MO into southern IL has recently shown slightly improved linear structure. Striated velocity signatures from KLSX suggest this more linear structure is currently resulting from a bore elevated atop the stable surface layer and not surface-based outflow. However, as the cluster continues to move downstream, the air mass is expected to become increasingly supportive of surface-based convective, particularly once it moves into western KY. Low/mid-level wind fields will also increase as the jet max currently extending from northern AR into southern MO spreads eastward. Expectation is for the effective SRH to increase to over 400 m2/s2 ahead of the line over western KY by 20-21Z. As a result of these environmental changes, the threat for damaging wind gusts and/or line-embedded tornadoes is expected to increase. A more discrete storm also exists ahead of the line. More cellular nature of this storm and the improving downstream air mass suggests potential exists for this storm to develop into a mature supercell capable of producing damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado.

As of 1:20 CDT most storms seem elevated in southern IL and west KY as the surface CAPE is along the Arkansas-TN northern border. Helicity up to 600 is found near St. Louis and slightly lower values into southern Illinois. If that higher surface CAPE continues to move northward to intersect the eastward moving high helicity values things should get very active. Numerous 3/4 inch hail reports in PAH area.

Day one outlook is out from SPC. Enhanced risk for se MO, PAH environs, and east to Louisville and a 10% hatched tor.

00z NAM coming in a smidgeon weaker for PAH area but still intense. I think it all depends on the strength of the WAA northward and the available near surface moisture. We still have strong shear, helicity, and jet. The fact that andyhb has chimed in on this concerns me since he is such a good svr wx met.

18z NAM for PAH area for late Thursday afternoon

I attended a sv wx spotter session last Sat. and asked the met about the TN tornadoes with dews only in the 50's and he said the stronger shear compensated for that. Concern for PAH and lower Ohio Valley area in particular for Thursday evening Mar. 12.

It's a week out with usual caveats, but 12z GFS on March 8 continues its trend of producing a storm around St. Patrick's Day that could be a svr wx producer for the southern Midwest and mid south. New ERTAF outlook issued the evening of March 8 also mentions this possibility.

I think this may be the first EF-4 tornado of the year.

The Nashville tornado reminded me that you can have destructive tornadoes with temps in the low 60's and dews in the upper 50's. You don't always need dews approaching 70. This event did have very strong lapse rates, however.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 822 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY... NORTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY... NORTHEASTERN TODD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 900 PM CST. * AT 820 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEIR, OR 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOPKINSVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. THIS STORM ALSO HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGE IN THE CROFTON AREA. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... WEIR AROUND 825 PM CST. DUNMOR AROUND 845 PM CST.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 711 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 MOC223-030145- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200303T0145Z/ WAYNE MO- 711 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CST FOR WAYNE COUNTY... AT 708 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PIEDMONT, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. THE PUBLIC REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO BETWEEN PIEDMONT AND MILL SPRING AT 705 PM. ANOTHER STRONG CIRCULATION WAS 9 MILES SOUTH OF GREENVILLE. THIS STORM WAS ALSO PRODUCING PING PONG SIZE HAIL.

Helicity is increasing in the tor watch area...with temps in mid 60's and dews in the upper 50's.

.A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN CARTER...SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE AND NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTIES... AT 624 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ELLSINORE, OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF PIEDMONT, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. A POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS REPORTED AT HIGHWAY 21 SOUTH AND HIGHWAY 60 AT 620 PM.

First tornado warning of this episode. Usual procedure forward is to post only radar confirmed or spotter indicated tornadoes. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 614 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 700 PM CST. * AT 614 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ELLSINORE, OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VAN BUREN, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... ELLSINORE AROUND 620 PM CST. BRUSH ARBOR AROUND 640 PM CST. WILLIAMSVILLE AROUND 700 PM CST.

MOC203-030030- /O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200303T0030Z/ SHANNON MO- 611 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN SHANNON COUNTY... AT 610 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF EMINENCE, OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF VAN BUREN, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN SHANNON COUNTY.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 553 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... CENTRAL LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY... NORTHEASTERN MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 630 PM CST. * AT 552 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BROOKPORT, OR NEAR PADUCAH, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...AT 5:50 PM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED HEAVY DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND ACROSS WESTERN MCCRACKEN COUNTY, KY. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PADUCAH, METROPOLIS, BROOKPORT, SMITHLAND AND HAMLETSBURG.

Tornado watch issued this Monday evening March 2 for the Evansville/Paducah area on sw to Harrison Arkansas. Primary concern is large hail with good lapse rates but a tornado or two also possible

Absolutely amazing. Global warming anyone?

There have been at least 19 EF-2 tornadoes to date in 2020 according to Ian Livingston of the U.S. Tornadoes Site. His Capital Weather Gang will be making their spring prediction by the end of this month.

GFS for some runs now has been showing quite a potent storm for the Midwest coming up the MS valley as we approach Ash Wed. Feb. 26 . Will have to watch and see how this develops.

Yes, out in fantasyland but GFS for several runs has been hinting at a big storm of some sort around Thanksgiving....worth watching.