Indystorm

Those cells west of Fort Worth need to be watched very carefully now that the low level helicity has arrived in the area.

The northern metro could be in trouble if this continues as well as concerns from that cell farther sw that Brandon mentioned.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 752 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN CALLAHAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... SOUTH CENTRAL SHACKELFORD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... EAST CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 815 PM CDT. * AT 751 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER POTOSI, OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ABILENE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... EULA AROUND 755 PM CDT. CLYDE AROUND 805 PM CDT. BAIRD AROUND 810 PM CDT. Good call, Brandon!

As others have said, thanks for all your hard work maintaining our food supply line. It takes all of us in this fight.

Best helicity is still west and sw of where current storms are located. But as SPC meso discussion noted this is expected to move east as the evening progresses.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 538 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL CALLAHAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... NORTHEASTERN COLEMAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT. * AT 537 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROWDEN, OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF BAIRD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. * THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... ROWDEN AROUND 545 PM CDT. CROSS PLAINS AROUND 600 PM CDT. ATWELL AROUND 610 PM CDT.

70/40 probs on tornadoes in the new watch.

Initiation south of Abilene and tornado watch being issued

Hopefully only until the end of the month from what I have read. We've been directed to cancel our worship services here at least through Easter. Large churches can use live streaming. I'm sending e mail devotions to parishioners and calling seniors asking if they need groceries, things from the drug store, etc. Tough not being able to visit parishioners in hospital or nursing home but relying on phone calls.

Yep, north central TX is getting some breaks in the overcast and some cloud streets forming (accas?) as the atmosphere continues to prime itself.

Latest SPC outlook (midday Wed) Primary change to previous outlook has been to increase tornado probabilities across west central into northwest through north central TX area. An old outflow boundary will persist in this region, but should become more diffuse with time. Several CAM runs and especially the HRRR continue to initiate storms in warm sector by late afternoon initially along the dryline across west central TX. This initiation would be in advance of primary zone of forcing associated with the shortwave trough currently moving through northern Mexico. While 0-1 km shear will initially be weak/modest, an increase in the low-level jet during the early evening within an otherwise favorable deep-layer shear environment will support potential for supercells with low-level mesocyclones, tornadoes and very large hail as storms move northeast toward central through northwest and north central TX this evening. Otherwise additional storms will likely develop across west TX along retreating dryline during the evening and spread east through TX and OK during the overnight. The shear/instability parameter space will support organized storms with potential for linear/bowing segments as well as supercells capable of all severe hazards.

Thursday March 19 late afternoon and evening could be somewhat interesting across MO, IL. and IN per this evening's NAM. Had to look at something else beside Coronavirus news to restore my sanity. But we certainly don't need any type of svr wx anywhere with all these restrictions in place. And it is the first day of astronomical spring, one of the earliest dates on record on March 19.

Yeah, I have to eat my hat regarding my initial suspicious post on model output earlier in this column. Got about 1.5 inches of snow here but melting. Nice big snowflakes for a time. And yes, big snows have happened during March madness here in IN. This is the first time it has happened without tournaments, though.

Beware the Ides of March and any model output such as this.

Just read that Indpls public library will close for an indefinite period and join other public libraries that are closing across the state after Sat, March 14 regular hours. I expect museums and movie theaters to eventually follow suit. I have read that Illinos is closing all casinos for the rest of the month of March. I intend to take this time to get out on nice days to my city, county, and state parks and nature preserves and hike during my free time. Good for the body, soul, and one's mental state in this crisis.

And for the Darwin award......a friend told me he overheard a patron telling someone not to drink Corona beer because of....you guessed it. In all seriousness.

Just read on CNN site that both Disneyland and Disneyworld are closing. Have a relative who was supposed to travel with the Highland IN band and orchestra at the end of next week to perform at the park and tour Universal as well. She's gonna be one very disappointed gal.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 536 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI... * UNTIL 615 PM CDT. * AT 536 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR POPLAR BLUFF, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

Mesoscale Discussion 0171 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Areas affected...Portions of southeast MO and northern AR Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 121931Z - 122100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the area and will be capable of severe hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch is likely in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Strong forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level speed max and a cold front will contribute to thunderstorm development over the MCD area in the next 1-2 hours. Storms are expected to develop first over southeast MO, then southwestward along/ahead of the cold front into northern AR. The airmass over southeast MO has been slow to destabilize because of abundant clouds, but temperatures warming into the mid 60s to low 70s near the AR/MO border will quickly advect northward to near Farmington prior to storms developing. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8.5 C/km sampled by the 18z SGF sounding, dewpoints in the low 60s, and continued heating will contribute to a corridor of 1000-1500 MLCAPE along/ahead of the front. Supercell modes will be supported by effective shear magnitudes of 50-60 kt, favorable angles between the deep-layer shear and the front, and storm speeds that will be fast enough to remain ahead of the front. Although surface winds have veered to south-southwesterly, storm motions forecast to be 270-290 deg and strong 850-700-mb wind speeds should still result in 0-1-km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 over the area, contributing to some tornado potential in the evening. Given the steep lapse rates and 50-kt winds in the 850-700-mb layer, severe hail and damaging wind gusts are also possible. A tornado Watch is likely to be issued.

..A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR POPE...NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON...WILLIAMSON...SALINE...SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES... AT 224 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WEST FRANKFORT TO NEAR CRAINVILLE, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. WIND DRIVEN 2 INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED ALONG I-57 SOUTH OF WEST FRANKFORT. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MARION, HARRISBURG, ELDORADO, JOHNSTON CITY, GALATIA, GOLCONDA, PITTSBURG, CREAL SPRINGS, THOMPSONVILLE, LAKE OF EGYPT AREA, CARRIER MILLS, RALEIGH, HANAFORD, STONEFORT, WHITEASH, WILLIAMSON COUNTY REGIONAL AIRPORT, NEW BURNSIDE, SPILLERTOWN, BROUGHTON AND EDDYVILLE.

Mesoscale Discussion 0170 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Areas affected...Southern IL...Far Southwest IN...Western KY...Far Southeast MO/MO Bootheel Concerning...Tornado Watch 46... Valid 121828Z - 122030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 46 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts and line-embedded tornadoes is expected to increase over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Bowing segment moving across far southwest MO into southern IL has recently shown slightly improved linear structure. Striated velocity signatures from KLSX suggest this more linear structure is currently resulting from a bore elevated atop the stable surface layer and not surface-based outflow. However, as the cluster continues to move downstream, the air mass is expected to become increasingly supportive of surface-based convective, particularly once it moves into western KY. Low/mid-level wind fields will also increase as the jet max currently extending from northern AR into southern MO spreads eastward. Expectation is for the effective SRH to increase to over 400 m2/s2 ahead of the line over western KY by 20-21Z. As a result of these environmental changes, the threat for damaging wind gusts and/or line-embedded tornadoes is expected to increase. A more discrete storm also exists ahead of the line. More cellular nature of this storm and the improving downstream air mass suggests potential exists for this storm to develop into a mature supercell capable of producing damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado.

As of 1:20 CDT most storms seem elevated in southern IL and west KY as the surface CAPE is along the Arkansas-TN northern border. Helicity up to 600 is found near St. Louis and slightly lower values into southern Illinois. If that higher surface CAPE continues to move northward to intersect the eastward moving high helicity values things should get very active. Numerous 3/4 inch hail reports in PAH area.

Day one outlook is out from SPC. Enhanced risk for se MO, PAH environs, and east to Louisville and a 10% hatched tor.

00z NAM coming in a smidgeon weaker for PAH area but still intense. I think it all depends on the strength of the WAA northward and the available near surface moisture. We still have strong shear, helicity, and jet. The fact that andyhb has chimed in on this concerns me since he is such a good svr wx met.