Indystorm

I do think this will be the beginning of the main show.

Tor warning juxtaposed with winter storm warning shortly after 3 p.m. CST/

From SPC meso discussion SUMMARY...Upscale growing and organizing convection will pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts and a few embedded tornadoes through 4-6 PM CST. Potential for more discrete supercells, which could pose a risk for a strong tornado or two, may become maximized near Paris TX, and surrounding areas of southeast Oklahoma/northeast Texas.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 150 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020 OKC021-041-097-102015- /O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200110T2015Z/ DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-CHEROKEE OK- 150 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN MAYES AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES... AT 149 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF PEGGS, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO OCCURRED NEAR LOST CITY AROUND 140 PM. perhaps today's first tornado

DFW area 0-3 helicity around 300 with excellent lapse rates as well.

Good CAPE, helicity and dews moving northward in that just issued tornado watch area.

Getting a t storm now here at Fortville at midnight with some quite vivid lightning. First t storm of year! From a winter storm system!

Just like with severe wx this looks almost like a "day of" forecast. The ice line keeps shifting among model runs for Chi town and nw and northern IN. Down here in central IN forecasters are calling for 2-4 inches of rain. If this materializes the copious moisture should be thrown north to make some of these ridiculous precip totals actually verify. Fly in the ointment as has been mentioned is convection and svr storms down south.

IND betting on the Euro vs GFS at present for heavy rain in central IN. The 12z ECMWF is now a much more reliable model than the GFS and has support from the ensembles. The GFS was much quicker and weaker with a wave along the front. The Euro brings surface wave from southern Arkansas to central Illinois on Saturday. Strong synoptic lift and jet streak interaction combined with the thermodynamics will result in widespread rain and heavy at times Friday night and Saturday. Storm Total WPC QPF through Saturday night is on the order of 3 to 5 inches over the area. This amount will result in moderate flooding over some parts of area rivers and also result in some flash flooding.

12 and 18z runs of the GFS have me thinking of Feb. and March for this weekend. 60 degrees initially here in central IN with heavy rain from here south to the Ohio river and ice and snow to the north and west. I usually don't start thinking of ice storms till Feb.. Gonna be an interesting storm to watch develop this weekend.

Yep...that 7-8 inch snowpack is hanging on longer than I thought it would given these warmer temps. Supposed to be 60 Christmas day with possible t storms Sat, according to some mets around here.

Nice share the wealth band of 7-8 inches along the I-70 corridor in IN as I look at the reports around Indpls for a storm total. Have to say I did not expect this much. Looks lovely. Now for a one day cold snap and then the warm up.

Storm south of Natchez MS looks pretty intense.

5 inches of snow here at Fortville this a.m. from the first round. Second round begins later this afternoon through tonight. Looks so pretty with very little wind so the snow coats the trees.

3 inches of snow at IND as of 8:45 p.m. Looking wintry out there. And roads are a mess.

Yeah....current prediction is 4-7 inches along I-70 corridor by Tuesday morning. Freezing rain risk currently thought of as being farther south to the Ohio Valley. Hope forecast is right.

I think there will be a lot of disagreement among mets until this system gets fully sampled and we are closer to the event.

Freezing rain now showing up in my NWS IND forecast for Sunday night and Monday. Ick!

There's a bit of clearing in ne OK and sw MO which I will watch as it moves northeastward. As has been stated, instability is really the issue today. but kinematics are awesome. Enhanced now shifted south in afternoon update.

Yes, out in fantasyland but GFS for several runs has been hinting at a big storm of some sort around Thanksgiving....worth watching.

I must be getting old....I'll settle for the 2.5 inches I got here at Fortville instead of that 18 inches at Dunlap.

2.5 inches here and in nearby areas. Looks pretty.

Fairly steady snow here just ne of Indpls since 2 p.m. EST. Grass now just starting to whiten a bit given all the rain this morning.

I will be greatly surprised if we get as much as the NAM is forecasting here along the I-70 corridor in central IN.