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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I posted this before, February SOI actually has an inverse correlation to the next years ENSO state.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    ^ I also got the warm SE Canada signal in analogs using -PNA/El Nino conditions. The subsurface is still Weak El Nino but the globe is no longer +AAM.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Surprising, they are probably going with re-development.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    A lot of convection over ENSO. This is actually the strongest El Nino-OLR push of the entire El Nino event. Second strongest +subsurface wave, only October was greater. I'm surprised the Pacific is so -PNA right now.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It will be hard to do La Nina. The Earths pattern is in opposite, rotational speed index I call it. El Nino or Neutral.
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    MJO will probably not stay strong.
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    For an El Nino going in Oct-Dec to die out like this completely in mid-Winter, Reminds me of the early 1950s (51-52, 52-53).
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I'd still call it an El Nino.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    What's with these new models.. it's impossible to get a Polar pattern that far south without a pattern change.. Sorry if I'm ranting, Euro and UKMET are still the best.
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    EPO is positive.. I'm not sure how that would work.
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's really hard to have a -PNA in El Nino like this, although it can happen like in 65-66. I think it speaks volumes about the long term PDO state and longer term ENSO state, which is probably closer to 0.0 vs the global average of +0.3. Subsurface trends continue to suggest that this is a Weak-Moderate El Nino (although subsurface looks weak now I think that is because of SOI/MJO, which cuts into but is not necessarily the predominant state).
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    NAO is actually a secondary index, because the pattern is mostly west to east and rarely buckles over the top since the 1800s/ice decline.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    NAM is surprisingly warm. I'm not sure it will verify.. seems like a cold bust as the primarily low is trending weaker..
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    If you look at subsurface data, one could argue 95-96 was Neutral.
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The only way this can really develop in El Nino (north pacific ridge) is with a cooling trend in the subsurface.. increases chances of transition to Neutral/La Nina
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Jan 2019 will be the 18th straight meteorological Winter month (Dec-Jan-Feb) of +NAO.
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    models are probably still underdone, it's a weak coastal though.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look back in Missouri and around the Mississippi. the precip is so slow moving.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I can't believe the 00z NAM brings the 0c line all the way up to DC.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    SREF even snows to Boston.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    15-18" south of NYC now.. insane
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Jan 2000 still on the table. Wrapping up really nice for 4 hours right now.
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Bright sun shining through the clouds here in Fallston. It seems every 15 minutes temps bust warmer.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This is what I'm saying.. they always trend warmer/north. If it shows 15 degrees and light snow 3 days out it's going to be a 28 degree snowstorm lol.
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