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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The most extreme March NAO's and the months that followed. -1.83 -0.30 -1.25 -0.05 -0.51 0.37 0.63 -0.98 1.85 0.28 1.38 -0.27 0.97 0.01 2.05 -2.47 0.99 -0.10 0.16 -2.47 0.14 -0.37 -1.96 0.37 -0.24 -1.38 -1.73 -1.56 -0.07 Edit: 2 February's in a row with <-1.00 PNA. 4/5 times the following February is +PNA.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Wow, ok. This might be bumped up to a Moderate risk.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    When every month DJFM has similar NAO, the following Winter is same-NAO 16/19 times for the whole, 53/76 months. I think it has to do with Atlantic tripole https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50292-negative-nao-winter/?do=findComment&amp;comment=5059074
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's the lowest 5-month SOI since 1997. That was February. We could easily break 1982 and 1997 SOI-wise if the El Nino strengthens in the Spring. Check out the Indian Ocean signal.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    12z GFS ensemble mean finally has a handle on the long range pattern. If you want an accurate forecast, that is it.
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Really solid El Nino developing now.
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The wavelength cycle since about April doesn't give room for any more deepening. unless something changes... (it won't) ie, NAO dampening.
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    We have a really nice +PNA around this time. GFS does this: Euro just misses Wave 1 and is loading up a Wave 2 I've seen this before though, the +PNA won't trend any stronger so it's either going to be rain or nonevent.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Really warm. Euro might have something on its tail end though. This reminds me of 1997.
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    At least the PNA isn't always negative like 16-17, 17-18. I venture to say Ocean currents will look much different in 5 years.
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    He returned home.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    We might be going into a 2-year Nino.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It looks like Spring has settled in by the end of the 18z GFS.
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I was surprised to see that it's snowing healthily with dark grey skies. This is surprising because around 9am it was a beautiful Spring day.
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    No chance in this +NAO.
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Nice warm-up coming. Nope.. the climate always changes. Strong Nino/-NAO right now would be my guess. 100" season. Otherwise we are drying out snow-wise.
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    March 8th. 0 STW's
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Really impressive Pacific +PNA pattern on 12z GFS ensembles... but just as impressive +NAO..
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    We are blasting a +AO now in the medium/long range. Weird +PNA from unseasonal Kelvin wave keeps it moderate.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It looks, as per subsurface, that the event will peak in April.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It must be 50 degrees outside. snowdepthchnging wins again.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Nice Spring day.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Here's bad PDO/ENSO vs good PDO/enso (click to animate)
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Euro is 983mb though.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Big difference between the GFS and Euro right now.. especially with regards to timing.
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