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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Subsurface ENSO.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This is pretty significant.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    -PNA, you don't see this in El Nino, but Neutral. You do see this N Pacific pattern in El Nino. It will be interesting to see if a new Kelvin Wave develops in 10-15 days.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    These don't work out.. it will trend warmer
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's been pretty much all snow here (this winter). raining a little now.
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I'm going to end the Winter with about 25".
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    We quickly go -AAM with a trough in the West.. interesting.. it could get warm (I mean La Nina-like in the Spring).
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I can't believe there are precip type issues with -NAO. <- I wrote that earlier. Now the 12z GFS is cold. (Where's the activity?)
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Setting up for a monster March 9th? Lol probably not..
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yeah it's much more organized. It might not verify because of the NAM.
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    GFs actually looks significantly better (click to animate)
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's not a pattern that would rain as the low slides south. We have a sneaky -NAO I think. -NAO means it hugs the coastal plain. (After the NAM it's more likely to be neutral-NAO)
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yeah it kind of killed the storm chance a little bit. It's not going to rain, but..
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Record for the year? Seasons like this sneak up on you at the end when the wavelengths change.
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    A lot of the -PNA stuff long range may be busting.
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yes correct.. even rain seems hard.
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I like the similarities to 1996 by the way.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    18z GFS should be interesting. 18z NAM vs 12z GFS (click to animate)
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    18z NAM WOOF
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It seems to be the former. Africa had a lot of rain last year.. cold SSTs off the coast.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It will likely be ENSO Neutral this year, +Neutral. I would expect slightly above average temperatures, and normal to above normal precipitation.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    NAM is almost 4-6" here, it's one of those storms that will only trend wetter as we get closer. I think NAM is closer than other models.
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Nah, that's just NAO. We saw so much warmth preceding Hurricane seasons 2005-2017 that it was likely to do something else.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I would say we could do a few more snowfall events because that would fit in with a collective average.
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