AfewUniversesBelowNormal

12z GFS ensembles We have a nice +PNA. The +NAO may be getting ahead of itself.

Subsurface continues to lead surface significantly so. Check out the western subsurface leading up to the 2015 El Nino. We seem to be doing it again.

Euro last night is no longer a closed low, but it does have the NE trough that you see in outbreaks. 12z GFS is 990mb

It seems to me that this period March 18-31, 2019 will be wintery cool.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/ I don't think we were ever truly in +PDO 2013-2018, to be honest. (anomalous blip.) It's long term -PDO right now.

Nice setup on the Euro

Looks like a cooler Summer coming. (^projected to warm the next 11-15 days)

definitely some potential. But it didn't verify.

Strong El Nino subsurface wave.. looks like an El Nino Spring.

This is a strong +subsurface wave currently happening, and 11-15 day models have it continuing to strengthen.

Nice little spinning low -NAO hrs 50-57 on the 12z NAM. If that can hold, we have a chance.. knowing the seasonal trends it won't.

Above average precipitation may continue through the Spring. Maybe an above average temperature Spring as the AO continues to bust above forecast.

Looks like the storm was artificially hit.

All of the -EPO's end up doing this,. they shear east after 4-5 days and also connect with -PNA. We've had like 7 of these in a row lol The subsurface ENSO warming is starting to correlate with a trough-Spring

It looks like El Nino is making a comeback, which doesn't bode well for severe weather. The +AO pattern in the long range may produce, at least rainbands around March 15th: (Thunderstorm activity is down 50% right now.)

This is pretty cool.. I posted earlier that there is an inverse correlation between February SOI and the next years ENSO state. AAM is something like rotational speed of the Earth, faster in El Nino, slower in La Nina. AAM can been in 500mb heights as this: Febuary 15-28 2019 has been -AAM (what you usually see in La Nina) Check out these strong El Nino developing analogs and what happened Feb 15-28 AAM-wise. All were -AAM.

Surprised you have Baltimore so high.

It was flurrying in bel air.. should be cold enough here.

Usually the strong events are getting going by now. The current Kelvin Wave suggests El Nino will continue. 2019 1 0.69 0.77 0.76 2019 2 0.74 0.90 1.07 March will be up in all 3 2015 1 0.28 0.22 0.15 2015 2 0.54 0.65 0.83 2015 3 0.85 1.17 1.52 2014 1 0.18 0.00 -0.33 2014 2 0.43 0.42 0.39 2014 3 0.93 1.21 1.60 2005 1 .40 .42 .52 2005 2 .29 .42 .59 2005 3 .49 .72 1.27 1997 1 .54 .49 .56 1997 2 .84 .85 1.00 1997 3 1.09 1.26 1.17 All were El Nino years. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt 1990 makes it 30 years and that was Neutral. 1990 1 .63 .68 .78 1990 2 .86 .98 1.08 1990 3 .68 .88 1.14 1982 1 .33 .22 .21 1982 2 .59 .53 .56 1982 3 .74 .78 .92

This isn't going to hit WSW criteria. It's too warm.

As always, RAP is trending warmer as we get closer to the event. (click to animate)

I'll be surprised if that model lasts much longer in a real world.

I'm a little concerned about the higher end totals because of this.

The North Pacific is not acting like El Nino at all despite El Nino conditions in the subsurface.. this was completely different,connected until about 6-9 months ago.

A little bit of a stronger system