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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Really good +PNA showing up on GFS ensembles in the medium/long range.. I doubt it will verify like that (pattern is same as seasonal trend), Expect more AO-busting-higher. It's pretty much maxed out by the way, capping the short term El Nino potential.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This is one heck of a setup. It would be better if it were April or May. (The negative anomaly in the NE going into the Great Lakes is showing up for the first time.)
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I'm convinced that the number 1 thing we need to look for is +PDO. Even in Strong El Nino, the snowstorm would only last 3-4 days. We need well defined +PDO.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look at the color continuum.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The snowdepthchnging maps are really good.. last event they had 1-2" here. Many other scores.
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    18z NAM totals
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Why isn't snow farther south? This is a weird weather phenomenon. A small % of the population actually sees snow.
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    2015 had a +PNA March 18-25 April started warm
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    2015 had a nice +PNA March 18-25 April started warm.
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This is pretty warm though
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    No luck here lol
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It seems the first one stole a lot of the potential energy, both are real threats. I'll make the threat title March 9-12. 12z Euro looks good. Edit: look at this trend on the 12z Euro now of the SW trough.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    NAM doesn't look bad
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Pretty nice setup actually on the 12z NAM
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    We'll probably get another one in late March.
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    00z Euro.. it may now be trending toward a wind/squall line threat vs primarily tornado outbreak. Time to trend of course, it's taking on the El Nino seasonal characteristic.
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    GFS has showed how many MECS' this Winter? Good model.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The way this +PNA is unfolding with the developing Kelvin wave makes me think this will not rush into Strong territory. It's a NorthPacific-ENSO even signal if that makes any sense. Weak-Moderate continuation, although something may happen in the Fall. (The point is, we are probably staying below 1982,1997) Edit: ie, in strong events you would usually see the NOI bottoming right now, and a off the west-coast or GOA trough.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    They are saying the same thing in central/south Europe.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    18z GFS doesn't look bad. It's early in the year though.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    18z NAM develops +NAO pretty quickly. Maybe the GFS will go this way.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The seasonal trend continues.
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's been a global stagnation since then. (MJO has really been the only thing.)
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Something people don't really know.. 1965-1966 was a Strong Nino that peaked in the Fall. 2.0, 2.0, 1.7, then 1.4 djf. This was a -PNA Just like this year. We are peaking on the other end of the seasonal scale.. El Nino likely to continue.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Some pretty solid rains hitting California now.. big difference.
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