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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    In the last year it's rained/quality like it only was in the 1990s. I love it.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look at this +NAO in the extended. It's actually rare for NAO to carry over from March to April and through the Spring, it usually switches phases.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    +NOI continues on models for about 12 days. I remember researching this, and finding a very strong correlation between late March/April NOI and seasonal ENSO cycle (healthy events). (PDO link too)
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Pretty cool animation of the cold front to snow on 18z GFS domprecip type. It won't verify though. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Big time -NOI coming up, similar to the 4-year subsurface El Nino of 1992-1995: I expect a big SOI drop, as usually what happens when the NOI goes super negative. https://www.pfeg.noaa.gov/products/PFEL/modeled/indices/NOIx/noix.html
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    (click to animate)
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    What the Euro does between 144-168 is incomprehensible. (click to animate)
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Euro is coming in. Look at this pattern.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    El Nino is finally getting organized after 1 year of general behavior. It will likely go Moderate-Strong. Look at this +NAO today. NAM has it down to 468dm! LR modeling PNA is cutting troughs underneath like last year at this time (El Nino).
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I can always tell what the NAO is by local weather.
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Wow -EPO sure did come out of nowhere
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The subsurface configuration looks like a healthy-Spring Nino. I expect aesthetic balance to develop at the surface shortly.
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    lol
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Just letting you know.. next Winter isn't going to do it without the PDO, and the PDO is not going to move positive in the Spring or Summer or Fall.
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yeah, we almost have a connect here on the 12z Euro. If the NAO was negative, but that's not possible to happen so.. it's probably a severe threat like the GFS has.
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The Euro upgrade was no good, that happened last Winter (ECMWF).
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    GFS has a decent event here. 3-4 hours of light snow.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's showed -EPO 2 runs in a row.. it would be interesting to see if it develops.
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    FV3, there's never been so large of a fail in one season.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It's 35 inches of rain over a few days, and -75 on the Satellite Cloud Tops Alert. I'm confused about this though, how is there such little/devastating news about real people? It's a nonstory. People just sit in their homes while flood waters creep up on them at 1"/hr?
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You guys are so dramatic. It's a population of 500,000, how is there "very little word out of there"?
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The last "A" was honestly 02-03. 90s were such a better weather era.
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Maybe some storms with this one.
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Looking at this latest subsurface, we might not hold the warming, and with cooler waters moving to 170W, it could eventually go Neutral/-Neutral. Long term models today popped a -PNA for the first time. I was thinking that looking at subsurface, but most of the Strong Nino's actually didn't have the subsurface lead. May 1982 was weaker than we are now. It's my hunch that the El Nino will go on Weak-Moderate-Strong, but not to 15-16 or 97-98 levels.
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