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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by AfewUniversesBelowNormal

  1. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Jan 2000 still on the table. Wrapping up really nice for 4 hours right now.
  2. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Bright sun shining through the clouds here in Fallston. It seems every 15 minutes temps bust warmer.
  3. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    This is what I'm saying.. they always trend warmer/north. If it shows 15 degrees and light snow 3 days out it's going to be a 28 degree snowstorm lol.
  4. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    So just look at the maps.. this storm is busting a lot warmer, so it's going be more coastal for NE MD and southern NJ. Pretty significant for this short time period. There is room for a trend probably at 00z for more wrap-up coastal.
  5. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    At 15hrs 0c line now just south of DC and all the way up to Delaware! Look at this.
  6. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    NAM is trending north tomorrow!.. again (look at the differences at 500mb. Wow! for 12hrs)
  7. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The precip is holding up great in Iowa and northern Illinois compared to where models had it. It's also much warmer.
  8. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Look how far north that 0 line is.
  9. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    nam is always right. It has that Jan 2000 look. Look off the coast of NC lol. https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
  10. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Can we trend last minute?
  11. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    It looks like it's redeveloping back west. Usually you would see cold pool there right now, even in transition back to Neutral.
  12. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    On topic please. All the models have +neutral or El Nino. I think we are in kind of a phase since-2013 where warm is the norm. SOI and NOI are plunging right now. Usually in a developing La Nina you would see some well defined SSTs in the northern latitudes right now, (not what's happening).
  13. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The -AO signal is really strong, but it's probably +NAO for a while..
  14. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    1993 was suppose to be 24-36" and it ended up sleeting 4" and it was 12-13" total.
  15. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    '96/ Not even close.
  16. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    The subsurface configuration suggests it's a late blooming peak, January or February, Matches 1953,1987,2015 the best.
  17. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Good sign.
  18. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    You've got one heck of a storm on the 18z NAM.
  19. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    In 2003 was the wettest year and 2002 was the last drought..
  20. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Yeah, I see seasonal models shift with every little swing. It's weird to see them go weaker in the last few weeks with the El Nino dominating and still peaking.
  21. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I think the 5 year streak of +NAO feedsback to El Nino bias going forward.
  22. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    If you animate arctic ice on NASA, it looks like we are below the long term trend. I would expect a severe melt in the next 1-2 Summers (like September kind of showed)
  23. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Negative Neutral would be my call -0.1 or something.
  24. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    Nothing but positive 500mb in the Arctic for the next 15 days. It's stagnant though, this is weird to me because it seems to be from no ice (no atmosphere).
  25. AfewUniversesBelowNormal
    I doubt anything that measures sea ice depth/mass would have reversed after 2016.
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